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I do not believe that they will be successful, at least not at a cost that a Russia in demographic and industrial decline can afford.

Putin might win. All he has to do is to hold on until January of 2025. If Trump wins, Putin will demands concessions from Zelensky in order to sign the ceasefire. No EU. No NATO. And Russia gets to keep the occupied territories.

Putin has recently signaled that he is open to a negotiated peace that includes EU and NATO membership for Ukraine. He has likely realized that the victory he aimed for -- the subjugation of Ukraine -- is out of reach and that continuation of the war and strengthened sanctions will permanently diminish Russia's strength and strategic options.

In addition, China and Iran are problematic allies for Russia at best, and the impending seizure of Russian assets abroad will inflict considerable financial pain on Putin and his criminal and oligarch allies. And if Trump is elected in 2024, he will put the screws to Russia and Putin through a hard peace terms. If nothing else, that will end the Left's Trump-Russia line of attack and warn China and Iran that with Trump in charge, the US is not to be messed with.