[Rockingham]

In recent years, Putin made a major push for a more modern, US and NATO style Russian army. That required a reliable career NCO and junior officer corps, better training, and modern weapons and tactics. After billions were laid out for those purposes with encouraging reports back, Putin thought that the Russian army could roll over Ukraine like they did Georgia.

When put to the test of combat though, it was revealed that corruption, incompetence, and lack of genuine reforms had subverted the effort and led to the humiliation of the Russian army in the 2023 invasion of Ukraine. Now Russia is reverting to her traditional, casualty heavy tactics. I do not believe that they will be successful, at least not at a cost that a Russia in demographic and industrial decline can afford.

Oliver Stone's documentary about Putin proved (to my eye at least) that he is an intelligent and determined autocrat corrupted by power and wealth and surrounded by yes men. Such a combination rarely ends well.

[MinorityRepublican]

I do not believe that they will be successful, at least not at a cost that a Russia in demographic and industrial decline can afford.

Putin might win. All he has to do is to hold on until January of 2025. If Trump wins, Putin will demands concessions from Zelensky in order to sign the ceasefire. No EU. No NATO. And Russia gets to keep the occupied territories.