Ukraine Situation Report: Russia's Drone War Erupts Thanks To Iran

New reality of modern warfare that was anything but unforeseeable: the 'democratization' of long-range precision strikes via cheap, hard-to-spot, hard-to shoot down, and potentially overwhelming 'suicide' drones. And yes, this puts critical fuel and weapons storage areas at risk.

Bila Tserkva, 80 km north of Kyiv, was attacked by at least 6 Iranian Shahed-136 drones tonight. This caused a major fire at infrastructure facilities. Reportedly 16 drones were launched from the south of Ukraine in the direction of Odesa, Dnipro and Kyiv overnight.

Russia's Iranian-made Shahed-136 kamikaze drones rain down around Odesa while a Mohajer-6 also makes its first appearance in the...

Drone Strike On Black Sea Fleet Headquarters Likely A Sign Of What Despite Ukrainian denials from some quarters, officials in Moscow say that the drone strike was launched from within Russia-held territory.

And for every one you shoot down, you spend a valuable kinetic effector (SAM). The shot exchange $ rate is extremely lopsided, just ask the Saudis. I have written about this topic for more or less a decade. Many laughed at it, until it became too real and started moving fast.

Ukraine has used the exact same type of capability but in more improvised form to hit targets well beyond the territory it controls & into Russia, although in very small numbers. The Iranians mass produce these & we are just seeing the start of what they can supply Russia, but imagine a peer state that is prepared and has the ability to produce all the components in-house? Say China. You will deal with thousands of these traveling to targets over long distances. It is the bottom of the aerial threat barrel, but it is perhaps the most vexing.

There is no man in the loop, these fly on autopilot to strike pre-defined coordinates or they fly to a loitering area to detect and attack air defense radars autonomously. As I have written about for months, Russia will turn to using suicide drones, once it has ample supplies.

As modern-day Vengence Weapons against populated areas. While nobody has a perfect crystal ball, there is a good chance we will see these used in such a way as the conflict wears on. But above all else, these relatively simple weapons have given Russia the ability to reach where Russian manned airpower will not tread-far beyond the front lines. Allowing for precision strikes on targets deep inside Ukraine without the use of very expensive standoff missiles that are in dwindling supply with questionable ability to replenish stocks anytime soon.

Although Iran's medium-altitude, long/medium endurance drones that are man-in-the-loop controlled and armed with munitions are meant to be able to go after dynamic targets a bit beyond the front lines, they have been few in number and/or ineffective so far. The suicide drones are the big issue.

While air defenses help in stopping these attacks, the most important thing is intelligence as in keeping Russia from gaining critical intelligence on targets and dispersing and hiding critical supplies as much as possible so they cannot be hit.

Remember unless its a radar (and it is equipped specifically for the anti-radiation mission set) these cannot hit dynamic targets. Russia totally lacks this capability beyond the front lines. Only stationary, established targets are at risk. A point on a map.

So complicating Russia's targeting process, keeping critical items and capabilities moving around, and doing anything possible to deny them quality real-time intelligence is key. Stopping these attacks so-called 'left of launch.

Russia's Iranian-made Shahed-136 kamikaze drones rain down around Odesa while a Mohajer-6 also makes its first appearance in the...

On defense, many say what about lasers? Yes lasers are very promising, but they can only engage one at a time and the lower the power the longer the 'dwell time' to disable/destroy a target. This defense becomes an issue for larger scale/multi-drone attacks... the High power microwave systems are perhaps better for point defense against swarms/large scale attacks as they can knock down multiple drones at a time. Drones that intercept drones are also promising, along with missiles and gun systems and the sensors that support them that are developed/adapted specifically for this threat. Along with EW and other non-kinetic options. You solve the problem via a layered defense by mixing and matching these countermeasures depending on the threat.

There is no one magic thing that will counter the problem efficiently and effectively, with a wide range of scalability and flexibility, alone. Just reality.

There is a big misunderstanding about the range of these weapons as they are new to many even though they have been used effectively for years. They can travel hundreds of miles. These are fixed-wing gasoline-powered aircraft that usually are very efficient in their design (primarily flying wing). They are slow and can fly low along waypoints that are pre-programmed, so very hard to spot and engage even by capable air defenses.

When we talk shot exchange, for the Saudis for instance, they sling multi-million dollar Patriots and million dollar AMRAAMs at them constantly. They cost thousands of dollars in most cases, not even tens of thousands. I tried to not include links in this but more here:

Saudi Arabia is Running Out Of Patriot Missiles In Its Conflict With Th.... The Saudis need to restock their depleted Patriot Missile arsenal due to constant ballistic missile barrages from Houthi forces in Yemen.

Saudia Cleared To Buy Hundreds More AMRAAM Missiles They've Be...Royal Saudi Air Force fighter jets have been using AIM-120 missiles to shoot down Houthi drones regularly for years now.

Electronic warfare is not as relevant to counter these systems as they fly autonomously on autopilot. GPS is really their only potential vulnerability there, but that is complicated. So no, in many cases, typical lower-end EW drone defense systems will not effectively.

I really stay away from the day to day claims of battle. All of the information I’ve taken time to look at has been disinfo from day one. I’ve always assumed that if Russia ever was about to fold on this front that their most effective move would be to massively but conventionally take out the NATO equipment staging areas in Poland. That would soon effectively scuttle what the Ukes had planned militarily. It also puts the next escalatory move in NATO’s court. Strategically this ends one of two ways. Russia will retain and fortify that part of the last week’s annexed territories they feel are vital or they will fight WWIII. Historically, Russia is primed for a pre emptive conventional attack if NATO continues to exert this degree of pressure on Putin.

I just sent some time at Iranian posts. The women’s movement is not stopping, over 100 people have been killed, and now the oil workers have stated they are joining the women’s protest. They were critical in winning the revolution against the Shah. A judge is offering to mediate, and the powerful Revolutionary Guard did not attack protesters today. The Kurds who live in Iran are completely independent and are supporting the protesters, who apparently can escape to their territory if necessary.

The question is whether the government will be able to calm down this protest, or whether it will proceed to revolution. If the latter, then will it be possible to end Iran as a source of their nasty little drones? Or has Russia already bought enough it won’t make any difference who wins?

delta7 The Ukies have none of that, all stores expended ( or destroyed) months ago, all manufacturing plants destroyed, totally dependent on western aid….in short, Ukraine is one massive welfare state.

The perpetrator of the destruction is the guy YOU support - the Nazi dictator Putin

Why do you support the Nazi dictator Putin's invasion of Ukraine?

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