Posted on 10/06/2022 5:34:45 PM PDT by Cathi
Tyler Rogoway @Aviation_Intel
New reality of modern warfare that was anything but unforeseeable: the 'democratization' of long-range precision strikes via cheap, hard-to-spot, hard-to shoot down, and potentially overwhelming 'suicide' drones. And yes, this puts critical fuel and weapons storage areas at risk.
Maria Avdeeva@maria_avdv7h
Bila Tserkva, 80 km north of Kyiv, was attacked by at least 6 Iranian Shahed-136 drones tonight. This caused a major fire at infrastructure facilities. Reportedly 16 drones were launched from the south of Ukraine in the direction of Odesa, Dnipro and Kyiv overnight.
Ukraine Situation Report: Russia's Drone War Erupts Thanks To Iran
Russia's Iranian-made Shahed-136 kamikaze drones rain down around Odesa while a Mohajer-6 also makes its first appearance in the...
Drone Strike On Black Sea Fleet Headquarters Likely A Sign Of What Despite Ukrainian denials from some quarters, officials in Moscow say that the drone strike was launched from within Russia-held territory.
And for every one you shoot down, you spend a valuable kinetic effector (SAM). The shot exchange $ rate is extremely lopsided, just ask the Saudis. I have written about this topic for more or less a decade. Many laughed at it, until it became too real and started moving fast.
Ukraine has used the exact same type of capability but in more improvised form to hit targets well beyond the territory it controls & into Russia, although in very small numbers. The Iranians mass produce these & we are just seeing the start of what they can supply Russia, but imagine a peer state that is prepared and has the ability to produce all the components in-house? Say China. You will deal with thousands of these traveling to targets over long distances. It is the bottom of the aerial threat barrel, but it is perhaps the most vexing.
There is no man in the loop, these fly on autopilot to strike pre-defined coordinates or they fly to a loitering area to detect and attack air defense radars autonomously. As I have written about for months, Russia will turn to using suicide drones, once it has ample supplies.
As modern-day Vengence Weapons against populated areas. While nobody has a perfect crystal ball, there is a good chance we will see these used in such a way as the conflict wears on. But above all else, these relatively simple weapons have given Russia the ability to reach where Russian manned airpower will not tread-far beyond the front lines. Allowing for precision strikes on targets deep inside Ukraine without the use of very expensive standoff missiles that are in dwindling supply with questionable ability to replenish stocks anytime soon.
Although Iran's medium-altitude, long/medium endurance drones that are man-in-the-loop controlled and armed with munitions are meant to be able to go after dynamic targets a bit beyond the front lines, they have been few in number and/or ineffective so far. The suicide drones are the big issue.
While air defenses help in stopping these attacks, the most important thing is intelligence as in keeping Russia from gaining critical intelligence on targets and dispersing and hiding critical supplies as much as possible so they cannot be hit.
Remember unless its a radar (and it is equipped specifically for the anti-radiation mission set) these cannot hit dynamic targets. Russia totally lacks this capability beyond the front lines. Only stationary, established targets are at risk. A point on a map.
So complicating Russia's targeting process, keeping critical items and capabilities moving around, and doing anything possible to deny them quality real-time intelligence is key. Stopping these attacks so-called 'left of launch.
Ukraine Situation Report: Russia's Drone War Erupts Thanks To Iran
Russia's Iranian-made Shahed-136 kamikaze drones rain down around Odesa while a Mohajer-6 also makes its first appearance in the...
Drone Strike On Black Sea Fleet Headquarters Likely A Sign Of What Despite Ukrainian denials from some quarters, officials in Moscow say that the drone strike was launched from within Russia-held territory.
On defense, many say what about lasers? Yes lasers are very promising, but they can only engage one at a time and the lower the power the longer the 'dwell time' to disable/destroy a target. This defense becomes an issue for larger scale/multi-drone attacks... the High power microwave systems are perhaps better for point defense against swarms/large scale attacks as they can knock down multiple drones at a time. Drones that intercept drones are also promising, along with missiles and gun systems and the sensors that support them that are developed/adapted specifically for this threat. Along with EW and other non-kinetic options. You solve the problem via a layered defense by mixing and matching these countermeasures depending on the threat.
There is no one magic thing that will counter the problem efficiently and effectively, with a wide range of scalability and flexibility, alone. Just reality.
There is a big misunderstanding about the range of these weapons as they are new to many even though they have been used effectively for years. They can travel hundreds of miles. These are fixed-wing gasoline-powered aircraft that usually are very efficient in their design (primarily flying wing). They are slow and can fly low along waypoints that are pre-programmed, so very hard to spot and engage even by capable air defenses.
When we talk shot exchange, for the Saudis for instance, they sling multi-million dollar Patriots and million dollar AMRAAMs at them constantly. They cost thousands of dollars in most cases, not even tens of thousands. I tried to not include links in this but more here:
Saudi Arabia is Running Out Of Patriot Missiles In Its Conflict With Th.... The Saudis need to restock their depleted Patriot Missile arsenal due to constant ballistic missile barrages from Houthi forces in Yemen.
Saudia Cleared To Buy Hundreds More AMRAAM Missiles They've Be...Royal Saudi Air Force fighter jets have been using AIM-120 missiles to shoot down Houthi drones regularly for years now.
Electronic warfare is not as relevant to counter these systems as they fly autonomously on autopilot. GPS is really their only potential vulnerability there, but that is complicated. So no, in many cases, typical lower-end EW drone defense systems will not effectively.
Bkmk
One result of President Biden and the Globalists driving up the cost of energy (to please Greta) is that Russia is able to make a KILLING on selling their products, thus financing big purchases of these drones and other arms.
So Putin does owe President Biden a big THANK YOU!
All the advanced NATO weaponry and they have no defense for this? Rather hard to believe. How much more effectively will the Chinese ones be when we blunder into a war with them too?
Iran, China and Russia are forming a formidable alliance to thwart our efforts to destroy Russia. India, Turkey, North Korea, Venezuela, Cuba, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Armenia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan…it doesn’t seem like any of these will align with the USA in the WWIII we’re starting.
When expanding NATO eastward five times to the vicinity of Russia and deploying advanced offensive strategic weapons in breach of its assurances to Russia, the Democrats/RINOs/WEF/Soros/Clinton crime family/Biden Crime family/Kerry/Obama/etc, know the consequence of pushing Russia to the wall and they believe they’re going to be ruling families in the new amoral world order.
These people are sick in the head with delusions of grandeur and it appears we’ll all be subjugated to them. Maybe we’ll get to see the second coming in our lifetime. That’s something to look forward to.
We haven't given them air defense systems beyond 1960's/1970's era MANPADS, and those are used on the front lines. You think a Javelin or M30/M31 rocket are going to double as air-defense?
⚡️🇺🇸🇷🇺 From President Biden Tonight:
“First time since the Cuban missile crisis, we have the threat of a nuclear weapon if in fact things continue down the path they are going. We are trying to figure out, What is Putin’s off ramp? Where does he find a way out?”
Not clear Russia is hitting anything of military significance with these drones. Some of them seem to be little more than V1s.
You should have seen the videos and pictures of this...it was on a Ukranian military base and building after building after building on fire. Unfortunately, I don’t know how to post videos or pictures, but here is a Ukrainian Telegram Channel post about it.
[Forwarded from Slavyangrad (ZIПDΣЯПΣЦF)]
❗️Ukrainian TG-channel “Legitimny” writes:
“The SBU and the President’s Office are “tearing” and “throwing ” that someone has leaked photos and videos from Bila Tserkva, and also information has come out that this is an attack on the barracks of the 72nd brigade, where there are victims.
The authorities, as usual, lied to the Ukrainians that all the drones were shot down, there were no losses, some “abandoned houses” were conditionally burning.
It is for this that the authorities forbid Ukrainians to publish photos and videos of the results of their arrival in order to keep the whole society in a false illusion, telling lies.
According to the source, it is not so dangerous to lose 500 fighters killed in the barracks (from the point of view of strategy, they are just statistics and will not affect the result in any way), but it is dangerous that the masses will find out about this and begin to criticize the authorities, panic, discuss, etc. “.
https://t.me/ukraina_ru/105200
https://www.tiktok.com/@arestovich13/video/7150536838090951941?is_copy_url=1&is_from_webapp=v1
This isn’t the best one which is a video of the night the attack occurred, but it does show some of the aftermath.
—> that Russia is able to make a KILLING on selling their products, thus financing big purchases of these drones and other arms.
I give them credit for buying their own stuff - unlike Ukraine
Russia has no shortages of artillery, nor drones. 70,000 plus rounds a day, unknown drones but their supply of drones has stepped up dramatically. The videos of ammo trains daily leaving Russia into Ukraine are miles long, indicating Russia’s manufacturing of shells is endless ( they have every commodity needed, including the manufacturing plants).
Discussions by western “ intelligence “ is that they are in awe. Russia is supplying in weeks what the US manufactures in a year.
The Ukies have none of that, all stores expended ( or destroyed) months ago, all manufacturing plants destroyed, totally dependent on western aid….in short, Ukraine is one massive welfare state.
So far the country that has given the most arms to Ukraine is….Russia.
By FAR.
They’ve left behind so much when retreating, or earlier in the war when stuck in the mud.
You obviously do not understand that India is the biggest capitalist country in the World. They are even more capitalist than the USA, which is actually more Socialist than capitalist.
Anyway, India is NOT a friend of N Korea nor of China. hell, they have been having skirmishes along the border. Plus, India has as good a Nuclear force as China, if not better.
India is not and never will be on China’s side. China holds territory it grabbed from India and it has claims on mich more.
Russia also grabbed territory from Turkey, Iran and China. Those three remember and are only playing pally with Russia for now.
“Russia has no shortages of artillery, nor drones. 70,000 plus rounds a day,”
Russia has a shortage of missiles. Plus its ammo is decades old and running down.
Tyler also runs the War Zone,is a huge lefty, censors any comment & bans any poster right of Lenin, but knows his military stuff real well.
All or almost all of the long time military posters on the War Zone have been kicked for not conforming with Tyler’s political views.
“You obviously do not understand that India is the biggest capitalist country in the World. They are even more capitalist than the USA, which is actually more Socialist than capitalist.”
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Why are you pitching this as a war of capitalism vs socialism?
This is a war designed and intended by the globohomos to force the WWIII to determine who will rule the world. There will be no capitalism or socialism.
There will be totalitarian authoritarian rule of a one-world amoral government. The only relation to socialism it will have is its amoral atheistic demand of every human being on earth.
“We haven’t given them air defense systems beyond 1960’s/1970’s era MANPADS, and those are used on the front lines. You think a Javelin or M30/M31 rocket are going to double as air-defense?“
You’re going to have to back that up with some type evidence. I call BS on that statement.
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