Posted on 10/03/2022 8:13:20 PM PDT by buwaya
Massive Offensive Across the Entire Eastern Front "Something surprising has happened" - DPA
It looks like a direct frontal attack right into where the Russians have been trying to advance, and supposedly where they are strongest.
The Ukrainians keep surprising all of us.
The sourcing is all from Russian Telegram sources apparently. No word yet from the Ukrainian side.
Another post based on the Rybar Russian map. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpFk3lta_H0 Go to 3:00 for this part of the front.
Marshal Foch, September 1918 -
“Tout le monde à la bataille”
?
Russia is about to be handed a historical defeat at the hands of The Fourth Reich.
“… this is a very broad front advance…”
*****************************************
A “broad front advance” or an “ATTEMPT to advance on a broad front”? There’s a difference and this is meant as a serious question.
Looks like Ukraine has managed to arm, train and equip the few hundred thousand men they raised over the past few months, plus the 200-300 armored vehicles they got from Poland. They seem to be finally using combined arms with drones and radio artillery observers among front line troops. Russia will manage to train and equip at least some of the forces they are raising, so the Ukrainians need to strike hard now.
No idea. Watch this space.
How much the Ukes can accomplish before mud and winter limits mobility remains to be seen. If they can recapture some of the ‘14 captured, ‘22 Russian annexed, portion of their country it will be good propaganda at the least. If they can recapture Kerson and the west bank of the Dneiper, better yet. If they can somehow get back across the Dneiper they could potentially start to threaten the Soviet land bridge to Crimea and perhaps become in range to shell the Kerch straights bridge there. A winter’s worth of minimizing supplies to Crimea wouldn’t hurt their chances of recapturing it next spring. They might also recapture their big nuclear plant. However, crossing Dneiper hazards Ukes running into the same cross river logistics problems the Russians have suffered the past couple months. Yes, they’d love to recapture the territory, but are they yet able to hold it?
Just speculation -
Like the situation Marshal Foch (Allied Supreme Commander on the Western Front, 1918) faced, it may be the Ukrainians perceived the the Russian reserves are exhausted. Advancing everywhere may create exploitable cracks in the front in several places, which the Russians, without reserves, will be unable to plug up, and which the Ukrainians plan to exploit.
I assume that by doing this the Ukrainians hope to, as Foch did, get the Russians to start withdrawing troops, piecemeal, and turn it into a mobile battle, where the Ukrainians will have an advantage. Based on the Ukrainian performance over the last month they have good reasons to believe this would work.
Of course this all depends on the usual military if, if, if’s. However, if it does work, and given what’s happening elsewhere, we could be seeing the end of this war.
The difference is that there is plenty of Ukrainian-controlled territory east and south of the Dnieper that the Ukrainians clearly are able to keep fully supplied - including all their forces fighting in the Kharkiv and Donbass oblasts. The Russians just have that one isolate bridgehead on the western/northern side.
The lack of any effective Russian counter-attack over the last month suggests you may be right about the Russians being out of reserves. They may have just kept attacking until their troops lost all offensive capability
Never been impressed with DPA and I’ve seen no other reports of such a wide offensive on the eastern front. Next he will say that glorious russian forces repelled the disorganized and poorly led Ukrainians. It’s a good distraction from the disasters in the north and south, and the trolls can point to the imaginary victories in the east.
DPA mainly uses Russian sources (Telegram mainly) and likes to cite their anecdotal info. However, those Telegram sources very often scoop everyone with frontline developments as the sources they have are generally serving Russian soldiers.
Among other problems, the Russians seem to have terrible OPSEC. Their loss, our gain.
Anyway, it seems that there is more info coming in via Rybar and etc. And, as the DPA guy said in the posted video, it’s not safe to rely on early Russian claims of victory or advantage, so it’s best to see these simply as reports of attacks.
The Ukrainians have much better OPSEC and they delay most official reporting by 24-48 hours.
I also follow some russian TG channels and am not seeing such claims about a large offensive on the eastern front. As far as OPSEC, you are right. I posted the same thing yesterday, that pro-Ukraine accounts are being forced to get info from russian TG channels because Ukraine doesn’t share info until it’s stale. It can be pretty entertaining watching Rybar, Wargonzo and others waxing on how they are crushing the enemy, only to report an hour later or the next day that they are retreating.
“Russia Mobilizes, Ukraine New Kherson Offensive, Suffers Heavy Losses, Slowed by Autumn Rains”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5bRsWoNze60
Ukraine keeps its mouth shut for the first 24-48 hours of a operations like this.
Russian nationalist telegram channels are likely to be the first best source of reliable information.
They are usually the first Russian sources to honestly state what is happening on the Russian side of a battle.
Slavyangrad:
Zin note: Jokes on them, when Putin falls and is replaced by Medvedev and Kadyrov!
Report:
Ukrainian TG-channel “Legitimny” writes:
“Our source reports that the Armed Forces of Ukraine had a large replenishment in heavy weapons over the summer, since the Office of the President spent all Western financial assistance, as well as finances collected from funds and organizations, as well as state revenues, on urgent purchases of equipment at inflated prices, solvers (functionaries), sometimes resorted to the help of the “black market”. They have good connections. They bought out all heavy weapons, armored cars, pickup trucks with machine guns, sometimes they exchanged them for other toys. They used any schemes to achieve their goals.
The office of the President did not spend money on the civil sector, did not protect the population from the coming famine, inflation, devastation in the housing and communal services sector or raising social standards. Literally everything is spent on weapons. They bought it, trained it, and now they threw everyone into an urgent offensive.
The all-in strategy will play out if the Armed Forces of Ukraine manage to at least repeat the Kharkov success and, for example, take Kherson, which could lead to a bad case in the Russian Federation and launch a “fall in power” in the Kremlin with the very capitulation that the new Russian government will sign.
If the war drags on, everything bought will be lost, and the strategy does not work, the domino principle does not start, then the Office of the President can wait for the counter domino principle.
In general, the Ukrainian people are in for a very difficult time. Many simply do not yet realize the real scale of the impending “storm”.
https://t.me/ukraina_ru/104908
I disagree. It is going to be a lot easier to get emergency western contributions for "starving Ukranians" than for "starving Russians".
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