How much the Ukes can accomplish before mud and winter limits mobility remains to be seen. If they can recapture some of the ‘14 captured, ‘22 Russian annexed, portion of their country it will be good propaganda at the least. If they can recapture Kerson and the west bank of the Dneiper, better yet. If they can somehow get back across the Dneiper they could potentially start to threaten the Soviet land bridge to Crimea and perhaps become in range to shell the Kerch straights bridge there. A winter’s worth of minimizing supplies to Crimea wouldn’t hurt their chances of recapturing it next spring. They might also recapture their big nuclear plant. However, crossing Dneiper hazards Ukes running into the same cross river logistics problems the Russians have suffered the past couple months. Yes, they’d love to recapture the territory, but are they yet able to hold it?
The difference is that there is plenty of Ukrainian-controlled territory east and south of the Dnieper that the Ukrainians clearly are able to keep fully supplied - including all their forces fighting in the Kharkiv and Donbass oblasts. The Russians just have that one isolate bridgehead on the western/northern side.
I agree about crossing the Dnepr. The Ukrainians best bet would be to force the Russians out of Kherson, where the river narrows and where artillery can be brought to bear on the roads connecting to Crimea.
I doubt they have the capability, but the clockwise swing into Luhansk/Donetsk following the Kharkiv advances could present the opportunity to outflank dug in Russian forces to the west and approach the Azov from the north, encircling Donetsk.
the real key is to attack south to take melitopol. they would effectively cut the russian positions in half, bring all of crimea within range, and make the already difficult position of russian troops on the west side of the dneiper—untenable.