Posted on 09/12/2022 4:26:09 AM PDT by jacknhoo
Russia Is Running Out of Missiles. That’s Bad News for Ukraine
Although the depletion of top-of-the-line Russian missiles could give Ukraine the upper hand strategically, it could spell disaster for Ukrainian civilians.
Ukrainian intelligence claimed on August 27 that Russia has used approximately 55 percent of its missile stockpile since its February 24 invasion of the country. If accurate, this could signal that sanctions are biting. However, it may not all be good news.
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has made several attempts to produce tactical and strategic missiles to fight conventional wars. These missiles, like the Kalibr cruise missile and Iskander short-range ballistic missile, can deliver 1,000-pound warheads within several feet of their target from hundreds of miles away.
Furthermore, the Kh-101 is an air-launched cruise missile with a range of around 1,500 miles. Like the Kalibr and Iskander, it can carry a warhead of nearly 1,000 pounds.
The Kinzhal is a hypersonic missile, almost impossible to shoot down, that can deliver a 1,000-pound warhead 1,200 miles. The missile can be guided by satellite or controlled internally by inertial guidance systems.
All of these systems are accurate and leave little excuse for civilian casualties – which already stand at nearly 14,000.
However, Russia is running out of these weapons. If Ukrainian intelligence is correct, Russia has depleted over half its stockpile in six months.
Less Accurate Missiles, More Artillery Several days ago, Vladimir Putin signed a decree to increase Russia’s military personnel to 2.04 million, including an additional 137,000 combat troops. This indicates that Putin thinks the war in Ukraine is long-term, even lasting years.
If Russia has nearly run out of precision missiles after seven months, what will be used in the coming years?
The answer to this question is, unfortunately, less accurate missiles and more cannon artillery. This means an increase in accidental civilian casualties due to prolonged indiscriminate bombardment.
While Ukrainian troops may see a decrease in casualties to indirect fire, this will likely be due to the dispersal of their forces and counter battery fire provided by systems like the HIMARS.
The US is sending Himars advanced multiple rocket systems to Ukraine The US has sent HIMARS advanced multiple rocket systems to Ukraine. Photo: Giuseppe Cacace/AFP/Getty Images Civilians, especially near the front lines, will be inadvertently fired upon by Russian artillery and Cold War-era missiles like the BM-27 Uragan from the 1970s.
Sustained artillery and missile strikes with technology half a century old will not be nearly as accurate as the Kinzhal, a weapon that entered service in 2017. While the Kinzhal can hit whatever target it is fired at, firing a single artillery round will not achieve the same result. Dozens of artillery shells will have to be fired to destroy what one Kinzhal is capable of striking.
Rising Civilian Casualties This means that if Russia cannot produce new modern missiles, then Cold War-era missiles and tube artillery, which are far less accurate but becoming far more numerous, will provide the bulk of Russian indirect fire.
After all, Russia plans to continue attacking Ukrainian positions this fall and will need artillery support to do so.
If this war drags on for months or even years, as Putin predicts, then civilian casualties could rise. Although the depletion of top-of-the-line Russian missiles could give Ukraine the upper hand strategically, it could spell disaster for Ukrainian civilians.
The same civilians that have been targeted as part of Russia’s campaign of terror may now find themselves on the receiving end of inaccurate mass fire in the same way civilians in Grozny and Syria have before them.
They’ll not defeat the Russians, this will start WWIII though, if it’s not remedied. The United States and globalist elites escalated this war, for just that reason, and you’re blindly supporting it...or maybe you want that too.
Actually, the “globalist elites” were busy ignoring Ukraine in 2021, dropping Trump’s Russia sanctions and partnering with Putin on a Trump policy busting Iran deal.
Putin took that disinterest as weakness and decided to escalate in Ukraine. If you really cared you would understand that since these facts at hand are clear. So it’s quite obvious you want Putin to shove every last Ukrainian into ovens. Suprisingly, they do not agree to that.
Yes, of course they are.
A few months ago, it was the Russian running out of artillery shells.
A couple months ago, it was Russians running out of ammo.
Last month, it was the Russians running out of manpower.
And now this.
Commonality?
All the previous claims made before were battlefield proven to be utter BS.
If you don’t want to be painted with a broad brush, don’t do it to the freepers who merely don’t agree with you.
That “We had an agreement in April” stuff is just Bolshevik gaslighting. Russia hasn’t willing withdrawn from one square inch of Ukraine in the last eight years. The idea they would ever willingly surrender the land bridge to Crimea and Mariupol is pure fantasy. Russia will have to be blasted out of there until their army breaks like it did in Kharkiv.
That was debunked, which is why it’s no longer talked about. The missiles were proven to be Ukrainian and were launched from Ukrainian territory in the hopes Russia would be blamed. IOW, they bombed their own ppl just to make Russia look bad. These are the thugs some ppl on FR are holding up as heroes and role models. 🤮
Which is a lie.
Half our arsenal? We have over 500 HIMARS missiles systems. We have given a couple dozen to Ukraine. The US has given no tanks, no aircraft, etc. Had we given “half our arsenal” the corrupt and incompetent Russian army occupying Ukraine would have been flattened long ago.
“Putin took that disinterest as weakness and decided to escalate in Ukraine.”
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Covering for Biden again are you? I figured you were a Democrat.
Joe Biden’s First Foreign Policy Test After The Afghan Debacle Is Going Badly
BY JACK DUTTON ON 1/24/22
Excerpt:
“Although the Kremlin denies it is planning an attack, it says that NATO support for Ukraine and the build up of weaponry there is a growing threat to Russia’s western border.
Some 90 tonnes of US “lethal aid,” including ammunition for “front-line defenders,” arrived in Ukraine on Saturday.
Tensions are high after Biden raised eyebrows last week by making a gaffe when discussing the situation. On June 19, the U.S. President appeared to downplay the potential for a “minor incursion” by Russia against Ukraine.”
https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-ukraine-foreign-policy-test-afghanistan-badly-gaffe-germany-1672062
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Biden asked for a ‘minor incursion’ into Ukraine and now he’s got one! But what’s to stop Putin blowing through all the president’s blurry red lines, asks JIM GERAGHTY
Excerpt:
“We’ll see what economic sanctions the United States and European Union ultimately decide to deploy against the Kremlin, but at this point it appears that Biden is getting the ‘minor incursion’ that he invited.”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10539505/Biden-asked-minor-incursion-Ukraine-hes-got-one-writes-JIM-GERAGHTY.html
No, I didn’t cover for Biden when he lifted Trump’s sanctions on Russia. You supported that, though. I didn’t cover for Biden when he denied many Ukrainian requests for military aid. Another Biden policy you no doubt supported. Are you in favor of Trump’s Iran policy being removed by Biden and Putin? Probably.
I’m with Trump. You are with Biden and Putin. Two America hating peas in a pod.
“I’m with Trump. You are with Biden and Putin.”
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Oh boy. Biden and Putin are aligned? Who’d-a-thunk-it!
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And last month this was you:
“I will continue to sit back and watch as Ukraine daily crumbles as the Russians take their sweet ole time grinding up the Ukrainian military. Do or die is fast approaching for the ZelenskyyIdiot government and Ukraine.
117 posted on 8/1/2022, 2:11:35 PM by cranked”
Remind me again, has this war/conflict ended bruh?
Wait, according to you knuckleheads, Uki forces fast approaching The Kremlin.....my bad.
It's a scam to justify more tax money being fed into a war that has absolutely to do with our national security.
“It’s a scam to justify more tax money being fed into a war that has absolutely to do with our national security.”
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I understand. That makes good sense.
A case can be made that continuing to support/fight this war threatens our national security in several direct and indirect ways, also, especially with this anti-American administration at the helm.
You Fruskies have been saying it all but over for months.
“Uki forces fast approaching The Kremlin.”
No one said that. But you did say:
“Russia Readies Knock Out Blow in Donbass...”
Are you referring to the rout of the Russian army? Or are you going to tell us that losing hundreds of vehicles, perhaps thousands of troops, and warehouses full of ammunition was all a part of Putin's grand plan.
A much better case can be made that supporting Ukraine and helping them defeat Russia is in our nation's interest. A weakened Russia is much less of a threat to Europe so we can save the money spent on NATO and US bases in Europe.
Also our weapons and aerospace industries will have more customers as other nations realize that the Russian hardware is second rate at best.
But most importantly Europe will no longer rely on Russian energy sources. Instead of gas from Russia Europe will buy gas from US providers.
And then when Putin is thrown out of office there may be an opportunity to reshape the relationship with his successor.
RuSSia doesn’t keep it’s agreements. Everyone knows that (except delusional Putinists).
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