Posted on 05/21/2021 8:24:03 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
As a partially vaccinated America reopens and tries to return to its pre-pandemic ways, several infectious-disease experts and an epidemiologist agree that a major surge of COVID-19 is possible next winter. They disagree, however, on how likely that is and what might cause it.
The prediction that we might be heading for another COVID surge was made 2 months ago in a speech and a JAMA article (coauthored with Peter Piot, MD) by Christopher Murray, MD, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in Seattle.
Murray's colleague Ali Mokdad, MD, professor of epidemiology at the University of Washington, said that IHME still stands by that projection, despite the rapid increase in vaccinations in the United States, he told Medscape Medical News.
Mokdad based this forecast partly on what IHME views as the seasonality of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. While cases and deaths will continue to fall in the United States over the summer, he said, the infection rate will rise again in the fall and could be significantly higher by winter.
The number of deaths from COVID-19 in this potential surge, he said, will depend mainly on the level of vaccinations by then and the new variants circulating as we enter winter.
To prevent this revival of COVID-19, Mokdad said, we would need to vaccinate 80%-85% of the population by the end of the year. Right now, the numbers don't add up, he noted: even after we expand eligibility to 12- to 15-year-olds, only 85% of the population will be eligible for a COVID-19 shot. Thirty percent of this cohort, he noted, do not want to get vaccinated.
"So even in our best-case scenario, we're at about 50%-60% coverage before winter," Mokdad said.
Because of waning vaccine immunity, he added, people who were vaccinated between December 2020 and February 2021 will probably need a vaccine booster before winter. "We're playing a catchup game, and the only way we can catch up is to knock this virus down. And the only one way to knock it down is 85% coverage as soon as possible."
Mokdad was sharply critical of the new guidance on mask-wearing from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). By saying that vaccinated people no longer have to wear masks in most cases, he said, the CDC gave a license to unvaccinated people not to wear them or to persist in their noncompliant behavior.
Because of the steep decline in mask-wearing he expects because of that decision, the IHME now projects a rise in COVID-19 cases as early as August, he said.
Different Views
Three other infectious disease experts all told Medscape Medical News that although a winter surge is possible, they're optimistic that increased vaccination will either head it off or make it much less dangerous than last winter's escalation.
Peter Katonah, MD, professor of medicine and public health and chair of the infection working group at the University of California Los Angeles (UCLA), said it was dangerous to make predictions so far ahead, but he wouldn't say that IHME is wrong.
At this point, however, vaccines seem to be walloping COVID-19 everywhere they have become widespread, including in the United States, where case numbers are down in every state, he noted.
The CDC directive that vaccinated people can unmask, Katonah said, will probably lead to increased vaccinations, he said. However, he emphasized, masking and social distancing by the unvaccinated will be essential to beating the virus.
"Vaccination has to be accompanied by that for you to really succeed [in wiping out COVID-19]. So if there's a drop-off in that, I think it's going to be detrimental, and we're going to go into a roller coaster ride without brakes," Katonah said.
Natural Immunity Doesn't Last
Katonah rejected the idea that we can add those who have already been infected with COVID-19 to vaccinated people to reach the 70%-80% level of coverage needed for herd immunity.
"First, there's an overlap: some people who were infected later got vaccinated. The second issue is that once you're infected, your immunity goes away fairly fast. So you don't just count the people who are infected, but the people who were recently infected," he said. He estimated that natural immunity might not last longer than 3 months.
Preeti Malani, MD, chief health officer and professor of medicine, division of infectious diseases, at the University of Michigan, said how long natural immunity lasts is unknown. In any case, she said, we're not going to be in a world free of COVID-19.
"Hopefully, the numbers will come down, and continue to stay down, and more people will get vaccinated so we'll be in that 70% range [for herd immunity]," Malani told Medscape Medical News.
Whether or not we have a winter surge, she said, depends partly on how large a portion of the community is at-risk or not immune to the virus by then. "Another unknown is how long protection from vaccination is going to last, and will we be in a situation where we have to do 300 million boosters. That could be difficult and would put people at risk."
There's also the possibility of "a more aggressive, more transmissible variant that the current vaccines don't work as well against," she said. "So far, that hasn't happened. But it's a theoretical concern."
Vaccines and Variants
Currently, the UK variant (B.117) is the dominant strain in the United States. Because that variant has crowded out other variants that vaccines are less effective against, we haven't seen the same spike in deaths as in some other countries, Mokdad said.
But that could change if the South African or Brazilian variants catch on here, because the vaccines work less well against them and can reinfect people who have had other types of COVID-19.
Katonah doesn't buy this thesis. "I'm not concerned about variants like I was a few months ago," he said. "Every single variant has been looked at with a vaccine and has been found to be effective...If the variants do start to become problematic, the vaccines can be adjusted. On the fly, they can change the genetic code that's in an mRNA vaccine."
David Hardy, MD, a scientific and medical consultant who is an adjunct clinical professor of medicine at the Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, said it's not clear how effective the current vaccines are against the South African and Brazilian variants.
"Because the vaccines used in the US, Pfizer and Moderna, were not tested in that part of the world, we don't have good on-the-ground human clinical testing of whether those vaccines protect against the variants or not. We have in vitro data, in which they took the plasma of people who were vaccinated with Pfizer and Moderna and have tested the plasma against those variants in vitro. Those plasma antibodies seem to neutralize the variants, although not as well as they neutralize the original SARS-CoV-2 virus or the UK variant."
Challenges Seasonality of COVID-19
Hardy doesn't agree with the IHME's experts that SARS-CoV-2 is seasonal. Last winter's surge, he noted, occurred to a much greater extent on the West Coast and in the Midwest than in the Northeast, where a seasonal trend would have been expected because of the cold weather driving people indoors.
"When we look back, the surges that occurred in November and December were not occurring because of weather changes. They were occurring because of behavioral changes. People were getting lazy or tired of wearing their masks," he said.
However, Hardy strongly agreed with IHME's prediction that mask-wearing and social distancing will fall off a cliff this summer.
While the other experts expressed concern about how much immunity from vaccinations might wane toward the end of the year, Hardy saw a glimmer of hope in our experience with vaccine-mediated immunity to influenza.
Immunity builds over time to both A and B types of influenza, whether someone has been regularly vaccinated or has been vaccinated in past years, he noted. "So I'm going to guess that even if people don't have 100% or 95% protection against the variants that will probably spread around the world, the illness will not be as bad."
Mokdad also forecasted that even if we have a significant surge this winter, "we will not have as big a rise in cases or deaths as we saw last December and January," because a large portion of the population will be vaccinated by then. Another mitigating factor, he suggested, would be a decision by the CDC to reverse its mask guidance.
Malani urged the government to continue monitoring the situation closely and to remain flexible in policy decisions concerning COVID-19. "We have to leave ourselves open to the idea of saying, 'Maybe after Thanksgiving, we don't come back to an in-person class,' if that's necessary. I hope not. I'm cautiously optimistic, but there are some unknowns here."
And there is the evidence that this is not about health, but about compliance.
And I'm with you on that.
“is possible”
“might be”
“could be”
“will probably”
“now projects”
And best of all...
“dangerous to make projections so far ahead, but...”
Reporting
https://youtu.be/9U4Ha9HQvMo
“... several infectious-disease experts and an epidemiologist agree that a major surge of COVID-19 is possible next winter.”
Good to hear, because, given their track record, that means we DO NOT have to worry about the virus being a problem next winter.
I’m sick of this virus and just happy it’s now over!!!
Gotta keep the fear going. Make that idiot in The White House look like the Savior of Mankind.
2022 the ‘Rats have to go.
It's endemic. Chances are that eventually, you will catch it in some variation, or the other. A more accurate statement would be, "At some point I may get it, I may, or may not, feel bad for a while and then I'll be perfectly fine."
In any case, it doesn't seem like much of a reason to inject an untested medical treatment into your body, does it?
You know what I expect from Deep State’s so-called experts this winter?
More lies.
Trump was right to get vaccines done ASAP.
But, to my mind, mass vaccination using experimental vaccines for a disease with a 99% survival rate is insane.
The vaccine should have been offered to anyone who wanted it, and patients should have been screened to see which vaccine was best for them.
Well, there's your problem. You are thinking about it, instead of letting your emotions rule your world. Your life will be much easier if you just let the "experts", like life long bureaucrats, politicians, pro-athletes, entertainers, random tik-tok posters, and the various Covid Karens (quite a few right here on FR) think for you. You should just allow what ever emotions they may dredge up run your life.
What Experts Predict From COVID This Coming Fall and Winter
1) People with a fatal condition will die of covid;
2) People with more than one fatal condition will die of covid;
3) Hospitals will continue to get paid for reporting deaths a covid;
4) The Federal government and some States will impose new onerous restrictions on personal freedom because of the horror of covid;
5) Expect the push for ‘passports’ to reach a crescendo and become mandatory for appearing in public - must be shown on demand with onerous penalties for not having one.
6) Home or remote delivery for everything will become a growing business niche;
7) Add your totalitarian restrictions here.
What were the CDC numbers again?
Flu cases
2019 had 38 million
2020 had 18 thousand
Same game coming this fall...
“Mutated strains”
More lockdown
Markets crash under the strain of collapsed main street businesses, commercial loans failing, unemployment handouts, reckless spending by Joseph Stolen, dollar’s further collapse, more, or even hyper, inflation. Then the (not so) a great reset.
They’ve TOLD us what is planned by them (central banks) and I believe they intend to inflict every ounce of their painful plans. They want us all as slaves to them.
...but that’s what I see coming...
I’m out of the market on my one year market reentry anniversary next week. Have been sitting on the edge of my seat awaiting this as I watch the market. Trying to avoid the short term capital gains tax, hoping the market would hold until then. It will only take one stupid word out of Joseph Stolen’s mouth to cause market damage.
Maybe, just maybe, we take back our nation from these thieving bankers and their intelligence community standing army, but my hope is wearing thin.
God wins in the end though.
Glory to Him alone!
I fully expect another surge/lockdown in 2022 - just in time for the midterms and mandatory internet voting.
However, he emphasized, masking and social distancing by the unvaccinated will be essential to beating the virus.
Last winter's surge, he noted, occurred to a much greater extent on the West Coast and in the Midwest than in the Northeast, where a seasonal trend would have been expected because of the cold weather driving people indoors.
"When we look back, the surges that occurred in November and December were not occurring because of weather changes. They were occurring because of behavioral changes. People were getting lazy or tired of wearing their masks," he said.
However, Hardy strongly agreed with IHME's prediction that mask-wearing and social distancing will fall off a cliff this summer.
Masks, masks, masks, distance, distance, distance. We quit doing that here last summer. County of 24,000 with a whopping 35 deaths 'attributed' to COVID in 1 1/2 years. (noncompliant behavior) Damn right and proud of it.
On the fly, they can change the genetic code that's in an mRNA vaccine."
You mean like a software update?
I concur! Not enough people getting the flu shots, so how do we get people to join in and get the flu shot every year???
I know we’ll get them sick with a vaccine and then make them get booster shots! Yeah, we’ll be rich!!!
Of course COVID will be back after mutating with Ebola and the Black Death and developing 37 new strains including the Elbonian strain that will prompt you to put your undertaker on speed dial. The panic must continue and Dr. Faustus Fauci will warn us to triple mask and cower in our basements for at least six months of national quarantine.
You're projecting again, dear.
“Yes....a lie by the author, not Seek and Find.“
Yes a lie from the author, in no way did I mean that towards seek and find.
It does not.
"I'm not concerned about variants like I was a few months ago," he said. "Every single variant has been looked at with a vaccine and has been found to be effective...If the variants do start to become problematic, the vaccines can be adjusted. On the fly, they can change the genetic code that's in an mRNA vaccine."(emphasis added)
Now wait just a moment. Changing the secret sauce in a vaccine requires a retest of the new recipe. The FDA has a whole stack of rules about such a thing - I believe it would fall under the Abbreviated New Drug Approaval (ANDA) process. Even under this EUA, there was a test and placebo group (the observation period was 2 weeks vs 2-3 years, but there WAS a test).
It is entirely possible the quoted doctor is a dope and doesn't understand the FDA approval process or even the EUA. Or...maybe...Moderna et al have been granted approval in the EUA to change the genetic code "on the fly" without any testing.
logi_cal869's unreported but observed vaccine adverse event has raised my concern to just about sloppy data collection and record keeping on such matters, but combined with this comment I now wonder if there IS the possibility of Moderna et al "tweaking" the secret sauce "on the fly" and never hearing about it.
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