Posted on 12/16/2020 10:14:33 AM PST by Capt. Tom
BOSTON (CBS) – If there is one thing New Englanders know, its weather can change on a dime, and so can the forecast.
If you read my little afternoon blog Monday or perhaps flipped on WBZ-TV and watched Eric Fisher, you heard things like…
-Light and fluffy snowfall for everyone -Sharp cutoff to the snow shield north of Boston -Highest snow totals to the south of Boston
That was SO MONDAY…
Today those statements read more like this…
-Light and fluffy snow NORTHWEST OF BOSTON, heavier and wetter along the coast and southeast with some mixing on the Cape and Islands -The snow shield will likely extend all the way north into SKI COUNTRY! -WIDE SWATH of 10-16″ of snow in southern New England
So, yeah…big changes. Are we done? Time will tell.
One thing that hasn’t changed much, the timeline.
Timeline:
First flakes arrive around 7 p.m. Wednesday in southwest Connecticut and by 11 p.m. in northeast (Essex County) Massachusetts.
Snowfall becomes steady after midnight in all of southern New England.
Heaviest snow falls from about 2 a.m. through 10 a.m. Thursday.
Intensity lessens after 10 a.m., likely done with 80-90% of accumulation at that point.
Between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m. we see scattered light to moderate snow bands, gradually decreasing in coverage.
After 4 p.m. just a few leftover coastal flurries.
Expected Snow Accumulation:
Initial indications showed a sharp cut-off with the snow shield. As of Wednesday morning, the guidance models the WBZ-TV Weather Team uses each day have agreed on a northern push of significant snow accumulation.
Here is the current thinking:
Widespread 10″- 16″ across most of southern New England, north of Cape Cod and the South Coast. Major difference here will be in the texture of the snow…light and fluffy stuff west of I-95 and much heavier/wetter snow inside I-95 including the coastline and most of southeastern MA.
So, while you may get more precipitation to the south (water equivalent), it may end up adding to the same totals in the end. Less water content to the northwest but fluffier snow accumulates much more readily.
6-10″ across the South Coast and the Upper Cape near the canal, also including Martha’s Vineyard. This due to a very wet snow/mixed precipitation.
6-10” north of Manchester and Keene, New Hampshire…very light and fluffy up there.
3-6″ over the Outer Cape
1-3″ Nantucket, lots of mixing here
Winds:
Not a hugely powerful storm, so winds will not reach nearly as high as some of our more notable nor’easters in the past.
The strongest winds will be on the outer Cape and Nantucket with gusts as high as 55 mph.
Gusts between 35-45 mph are expected along the remaining coastline.
Inland, much less wind with winds peaking out mostly between 15-35mph.
Coastal Flooding:
Tides during the storm will be astronomically high, meaning we will need to be on the lookout for some coastal flooding.
Thankfully, the storms peak occurs during low tide (Thursday morning), so only expecting minor splash over and vulnerable road inundation during the midday high tide on Thursday (12:52 p.m. in Boston).
Travel impacts:
The snow is going to stack up quickly overnight leading to very dangerous road conditions on Thursday morning. Plows and crews will have a hard time keeping up with the accumulation on highways alone. The secondary roads are certainly going to be difficult to manage.
With a “work from home” scenario and “remote learning,” the hope is for fewer incidents on the commute. But, if you have to travel, the bottom line will be slow speeds, patience, and safety.
History:
By the way, this storm, as currently forecast, could be one of the biggest pre-Christmas storms ever in Boston! To reach the top 5 Boston would need to get more than 12.5” which was our last “big one” (pre-Christmas) back in 2008. Certainly has been a while since we had a big snow storm before Santa arrived in the city.
Last winter here just south of Boston we had several snowfalls that were not storm driven, it was more like the Lake effect snow that Buffalo NY regularly gets.
At last it looks lke we will be getting tonight a real Nor'easter like we are used to having during the winter months.
So be prepared, and hope you don't experience the real problem - a power loss.
Freepers from NY thru Conn. should be experiencing this storm now.
Along the Mass. coast we get our turn tonight. -Tom
Snowing in Philly area already.
A small thing to grouse about, but with schools having figured out how to present remote classes, and many workers able to work from home, a good solid snowfall no longer means much of a day off for anyone. I feel somewhat cheated.
Montanans are very impressed I’m sure.
Whining snowflakes for real.
“but with schools having figured out how to present remote classes, and many workers able to work from home, a good solid snowfall no longer means much of a day off for anyone. I feel somewhat cheated.”
Yep me too. I live/work from home in FL and the office is in Baltimore MD. Now that they mostly work from home too, snow days are a thing of the past.
You can hope some trees take out some power lines.
Here in Minneapolis-St Paul, everything is brown.
In mid October, we got a fluky snowfall of about seven inches - but that has melted. Since then, we’ve gotten only a couple of ight dustings of snow.
I’ve lived here my whole life and I don’t mind the lack of snow.
I bet the schools will call it a snow day off even they’re all remote at home.
The lazy teachers will come up with some bogus excuse.
All the leaves are brown
And the sky is gray
I’d be safe and warm
If I was in LA.
Amateurs...
Born and raised in Rhode Island-Massachusetts. Never minded snowstorms until after Christmas. Then January thaw, lulling us into complacency. Then FEBRUARY - always the worst month of the year. Blizzard of ‘78 - good times ;-)
When I leave work today, I must remember to forget to bring home the laptop.
Or you can just tell 'em that happened. Neighbor's tree took out my feed. No, the neighborhood has power. Yeah. They said about 9 hours. They're swamped.
Born and raised in Rhode Island-Massachusetts. Never minded snowstorms until after Christmas. Then January thaw, lulling us into complacency. Then FEBRUARY - always
“””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””
I echo those sentiments. I’d also add that back when I used to watch football, winter wouldn’t really bother me until after the Superbowl because for the past 15 years or so we’ve had the Patriots to look forward to pretty much every year. What a run!
We have to wait for our turn,tonight and tomorrow.
Just got a call from my friend who volunteered to plow me out if necessary and install a generator if necessary.
I am one of the few people these days that doesn't seem overly concerned about a winter snowstorm.
I guess you get that way being old and retired with no school aged children around.
In answering you I pinged my white shark list as many are locals who will be involved with this storm, as many along the East coast from Philly thru New England will be. - Tom
Hot chocolate and Bourbon and you’re good to go...................
You get the heavy stuff it sounds, let him plow you out :)
Just me n' mama
if we had soemoen taking care of the snow for us, I wouldn’t ind it at all- but we take care of the snow ourselves, and that has gotten old the past couple of years- especially standing up on a roof with a 20 foot drop on the backside of house- ugggh-
For those that do their own roofs though I would suggest buying one of the following-
Minnesota snow razor (there are several other brands- this one is pretty good- some are kinda flimsy because they are too tall, and flex too much)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2hg6KF-es0I
Start about the 3:30 mark- these things save a ton of time and energy, and work really slick for parts of the roof accessible from ground- it’s a little tricky off a ladder- but doable- We made our own
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