His map last week.
Posted on 11/01/2020 5:54:22 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
We’re now two days away from Election Day, and Joe Biden leads in both national and state polls. At this point, President Trump needs a big polling error in his favor if he's going to win — and as editor-in-chief Nate Silver writes, a 2016-sized polling error just isn’t going to cut it. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t still a path for Trump. Trump might be the underdog, but bigger polling errors have happened in the past, and there’s a difference between a 10 percent chance of winning and a 0 percent chance. A 10 percent chance of winning, which is what our forecast gives Trump, is roughly the same as the odds that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. And it does rain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.)
(Excerpt) Read more at projects.fivethirtyeight.com ...
Gee, I woke up this morning and checked my Weather app: clear day.
By 10am it was raining crazy. Not even a 10% chance was called.
The future is not rational. It just is whatever it wants to be.
He and Nate Silver are on my super-secret list of third-rate notables to be evily gloated over when Trump blows them and their charts away on election night.
Leni
“Nate Silver has to be the dumbest SOB on the face of the earth.”
Silver has no shame making these stupid predictions. This is the mark of a man who has no morals whatsoever. It’s like he’s saying “Never mind about my predictions from 2016. This year I’m really gonna be right!”
Let's hope we get a little poetic justice.
"It never rains in California
But girl, don't they warn ya?
It pours, man, it pours"
based on 100% accurate historical data, if democRATS don’t get at least 90% of the black vote, it
is impossible for them to win a national election.
most likely Pres Trump will get more than 31% of the black vote and win an epic election.
only a rhesus monkey and his relatives would argue this.
His map last week.
Yes, I’m afraid Mr. Silver is absolutely right. The Democrats have nothing to worry about, they need not fret, it’s all over in a cakewalk. In fact, speaking of which, they should all feel free to take little cake-walk over to the bakery with all their Democrap friends and get some cake to share with all their soon-to-be-completely-and-eternally-victorious friends, instead of bothering to go to those silly old polls; it’s been taken care of, no need to show up. Actually voting is for those silly loser Republicans, who will go and vote first thing in the morning, so at least their conscience can know they did every single thing they could for their country. Yup, being Democrat means you get to sleep late, eat cake, and stay drunk all day. Leave the voting to the peons.
Please.
Worst case scenario, Trump still wins Georgia, Ohio and Texas.
He doesn’t even need their votes to win! The rats should just stay home and enjoy the day
It’s foolish to simply cite 2016 and dismiss all polling, because the polls were correct in 2018. But for Nate to say a 2016 style polling error wouldn’t help again Trump pretty much removes any credibility he has left.
Bookmark.
After Trump starts winning the States he needs, his odds of winning will go up like it did in 2016.
We are going to win MI.
Really? How are they going to flip them back? Answer-they aren’t.
Yes indeed!
Trump is up by 10 in Ohio, and once he wins it watch the odds change!
Richard Baris of People’s Pundit is having the same problem. He’s one of the good guys and he can’t get red voters to respond. Listen to him bemoan the response rate starting at about 30m 45s =>
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZdSy3Ele764
“We are seeing a small but noticeable amount of Black guys showing their support for Trump. Especially rappers with Kayne West, Ice Cube and Lil Wayne announcing in public that they support Trump. I think they have noticed that Democrats have been all talk and wanted them to remain on the plantation where they can harvest their votes and then do nothing about the issues that may be important to the Black Community.”
_______
Or they could just be good businessmen. There’s a glut of anti-Trump rappers, so maybe they’re seeing an untapped market. Either way it is helpful, so good on them.
Bad map. MI and WI stay Trump.
Trump starts with 306 from 2016. Can lose PA, no way, and still have 286. I think he’ll pick up MN, NV and NH. That is 20 more.
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