Posted on 11/01/2020 5:54:22 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
Were now two days away from Election Day, and Joe Biden leads in both national and state polls. At this point, President Trump needs a big polling error in his favor if he's going to win and as editor-in-chief Nate Silver writes, a 2016-sized polling error just isnt going to cut it. But that doesnt mean there isnt still a path for Trump. Trump might be the underdog, but bigger polling errors have happened in the past, and theres a difference between a 10 percent chance of winning and a 0 percent chance. A 10 percent chance of winning, which is what our forecast gives Trump, is roughly the same as the odds that its raining in downtown Los Angeles. And it does rain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.)
(Excerpt) Read more at projects.fivethirtyeight.com ...
That in itself would invalidate the results.
Donaldus Magnamus TRUMP +326 electoral votes
You are wrong ,there is always the biden voter
The press is immaterial with what I am talking about and totally helpless to stop it.
We are seeing a small but noticeable amount of Black guys showing their support for Trump. Especially rappers with Kayne West, Ice Cube and Lil Wayne announcing in public that they support Trump. I think they have noticed that Democrats have been all talk and wanted them to remain on the plantation where they can harvest their votes and then do nothing about the issues that may be important to the Black Community.
He gave Minton 75 percent chance in 2016
Yeah 31% is a small amount and that is going to be disastrous to the Democrats! Brother kingattax educate this person!
Idiot nate predicted the fl govs race with Desantis having a 2 out of 9 chance of winning
Hmmm
I guess the answer to the question is Who answers their phone when caller ID says unknown number? I sure dont.
The other factor these days is that almost all polling is done to cell phones—and almost nobody is willing to have an in-depth discussion on a cell phone with a total stranger.
Ouija boards would be more accurate in predicting election outcomes.
He is ahead in MI and very likely in WI in early voting and will clean up on day of voting.
I think he will eventually win PA, but Dems in Philly will find a way to delay the results for weeks.
Dems have to be crapping bricks about Now
FOAD Pedophile!
That is what the Dem leaders and the pollsters are afraid of. They know that if the rank and file Dems knew how embarrassingly strong the Trump trounce is going to be, they would stay home. That decimates the down-ballot and we win all. They have no choice but to fake the polls. It is panic on an epic scale.
election prediction bookmark
That last graphic shows Biden winning Kentucky. Pfffft. Trump won Kentucky about 62-38 in 2016 and it probably will be more this year.
Trump will not win Virginia. Much as we would like to see that happen, the dems are just too populous in NoVa now.
FiveThirtyEight
Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight
Owner Walt Disney Direct-to-Consumer & International
(The Walt Disney Company)
That explains a lot. And when you see Disney, think CCP.
Nate Silver says dems are always going to win, I mean eventually he’ll be correct, but he was way off in 2016 and hasn’t learned his lesson.
I really don’t understand the mentality of someone who can honestly think that Biden is “favored” to win after these embarrassing rallies are compared next to Trump’s.
Who do they think they are kidding?
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