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Biden is favored to win the election (Nate Silver from 538) 11-01-2020
538 ^ | November 1, 2020 | Nate Silver

Posted on 11/01/2020 5:54:22 PM PST by MinorityRepublican

We’re now two days away from Election Day, and Joe Biden leads in both national and state polls. At this point, President Trump needs a big polling error in his favor if he's going to win — and as editor-in-chief Nate Silver writes, a 2016-sized polling error just isn’t going to cut it. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t still a path for Trump. Trump might be the underdog, but bigger polling errors have happened in the past, and there’s a difference between a 10 percent chance of winning and a 0 percent chance. A 10 percent chance of winning, which is what our forecast gives Trump, is roughly the same as the odds that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. And it does rain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.)

(Excerpt) Read more at projects.fivethirtyeight.com ...


TOPICS: Chit/Chat; Conspiracy; Society; Weird Stuff
KEYWORDS: natesilver
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To: kaktuskid

That in itself would invalidate the results.


61 posted on 11/01/2020 6:42:10 PM PST by philippa
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To: MinorityRepublican

Donaldus Magnamus TRUMP +326 electoral votes


62 posted on 11/01/2020 6:42:50 PM PST by aMorePerfectUnion (I'd rather be anecdotally alive than scientifically dead...)
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To: Dave911

You are wrong ,there is always the biden voter


63 posted on 11/01/2020 6:43:09 PM PST by italianquaker
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To: Empire_of_Liberty

The press is immaterial with what I am talking about and totally helpless to stop it.


64 posted on 11/01/2020 6:43:33 PM PST by DarthVader (Not by speeches & majority decisions will the great issues th the day be decided but by Blood & Iron)
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To: cookcounty
. A lot of black voters are weary of the Democratic Party taking them for granted.

We are seeing a small but noticeable amount of Black guys showing their support for Trump. Especially rappers with Kayne West, Ice Cube and Lil Wayne announcing in public that they support Trump. I think they have noticed that Democrats have been all talk and wanted them to remain on the plantation where they can harvest their votes and then do nothing about the issues that may be important to the Black Community.

65 posted on 11/01/2020 6:46:13 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: MinorityRepublican

He gave Minton 75 percent chance in 2016


66 posted on 11/01/2020 6:47:18 PM PST by ConservativeDude
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To: MinorityRepublican; kingattax

Yeah 31% is a small amount and that is going to be disastrous to the Democrats! Brother kingattax educate this person!


67 posted on 11/01/2020 6:48:23 PM PST by DarthVader (Not by speeches & majority decisions will the great issues th the day be decided but by Blood & Iron)
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To: MinorityRepublican

Idiot nate predicted the fl govs race with Desantis having a 2 out of 9 chance of winning
Hmmm


68 posted on 11/01/2020 6:50:21 PM PST by italianquaker
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To: MAGAthon

I guess the answer to the question is “Who answers their phone when caller ID says unknown number?” I sure don’t.


69 posted on 11/01/2020 6:51:29 PM PST by crusty old prospector
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To: crusty old prospector

The other factor these days is that almost all polling is done to cell phones—and almost nobody is willing to have an in-depth discussion on a cell phone with a total stranger.

Ouija boards would be more accurate in predicting election outcomes.


70 posted on 11/01/2020 6:59:43 PM PST by cgbg (Biden n-2020: Criminal enterprise using cokehead as bagman. Pronounced: Bye Done.)
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To: MinorityRepublican
Maybe, but Trump doesn't really need PA...or even NC or NV:

He is ahead in MI and very likely in WI in early voting and will clean up on day of voting.

I think he will eventually win PA, but Dems in Philly will find a way to delay the results for weeks.

Dems have to be crapping bricks about Now

71 posted on 11/01/2020 7:03:11 PM PST by UNGN
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To: MinorityRepublican

FOAD Pedophile!


72 posted on 11/01/2020 7:19:45 PM PST by treetopsandroofs
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To: SaveFerris

That is what the Dem leaders and the pollsters are afraid of. They know that if the rank and file Dems knew how embarrassingly strong the Trump trounce is going to be, they would stay home. That decimates the down-ballot and we win all. They have no choice but to fake the polls. It is panic on an epic scale.


73 posted on 11/01/2020 7:21:16 PM PST by ALASKA (It's not going to be pretty.)
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To: MinorityRepublican

https://youtu.be/S8jlymRjiO8

4 years ago


74 posted on 11/01/2020 7:31:38 PM PST by MNDude
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To: MinorityRepublican

election prediction bookmark


75 posted on 11/01/2020 7:32:07 PM PST by libertylover (Election 2020: Make America Great Again or Burn it to the Ground. Choose one.)
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To: MinorityRepublican

That last graphic shows Biden winning Kentucky. Pfffft. Trump won Kentucky about 62-38 in 2016 and it probably will be more this year.


76 posted on 11/01/2020 7:36:15 PM PST by libertylover (Election 2020: Make America Great Again or Burn it to the Ground. Choose one.)
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To: Ge0ffrey

Trump will not win Virginia. Much as we would like to see that happen, the dems are just too populous in NoVa now.


77 posted on 11/01/2020 7:37:11 PM PST by ScottinVA (First, letÂ’s deal with the election; then weÂ’ll deal with BLM.)
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To: familyop

FiveThirtyEight
Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight
“Owner Walt Disney Direct-to-Consumer & International
(The Walt Disney Company)”

That explains a lot. And when you see Disney, think CCP.


78 posted on 11/01/2020 7:38:26 PM PST by Flick Lives (My work's illegal, but at least it's honest. - Capt. Malcolm Reynolds)
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To: MinorityRepublican

Nate Silver says dems are always going to win, I mean eventually he’ll be correct, but he was way off in 2016 and hasn’t learned his lesson.


79 posted on 11/01/2020 7:39:28 PM PST by snarkytart
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To: MinorityRepublican

I really don’t understand the mentality of someone who can honestly think that Biden is “favored” to win after these embarrassing rallies are compared next to Trump’s.

Who do they think they are kidding?


80 posted on 11/01/2020 7:40:34 PM PST by Safrguns
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