Black turnout in swing states

Vanity/Analysis | October 26, 2020 | bort

[bort]

Below is a list of several swing states, current black early voting turnout % in each state, black turnout in 2016, and the magic % number Dems need in each state:

///////2020 turnout/////2016 turnout////Magic Dem#%

Florida 12.5%//////14%///(-1.5)///////////15%

Georgia 30.5%//////29%////(+1.5)//////////32%

Michigan 9.3%///////15%////(-5.7)//////////15%

N. Caro. 21.6%//////20%////(+1.6)//////////23%

Virginia 13.1%//////21%////(-6.9)//////////19%

Wisc. 2.7%///////7.0%////(4.3)//////////7.5%

Note: The current 2020 numbers are pulled from Democrat firm TargetSmart. The 2016 numbers are based on exit polling data.

Georgia has a well-funded black senate candidate. North Carolina black voters were heavily front-loaded in mail/early voting.

Translation: The Democrats are having a serious turnout issue with black voters. The DNC and Dem-aligned PACs have spent tens of millions of dollars trying to get their base voters to vote by mail and in early voting. The black vote % is NOT going to increase from this point forward, as Republicans are now casting IN-PERSON early votes at high rates, which means those voting each of the remaining days will be much more likely to be white (especially R) voters than those who voted 2 weeks ago. Also, China Virus fear among older black women will dampen a chunk of black in-person turnout.

The Democrats are running out of "souls" to bring to the polls. All of these numbers are very troubling for Democrats, especially Michigan, Wisconsin, and Virginia.

[bort]

ping

[frogjerk]

Thanks for the information and ground work.

[BigEdLB]

Also, the D vote by blacks is down. R vote will be 15-20 with blacks

[Coop]

So the number of people on FR who think VA is in play has now doubled. Excellent!! 😁

[spacejunkie2001]

Praise God! My hope is that the blacks that ARE voting are voting R at a high %

[bort]

The Democrat base should now be called “the manic-depressive Democratic base.” White progressives were so fired up that they drove their mail-ballots to the drop boxes and slam-dunked them in. By contrast, the black and youth vote are don’t appear to be overly-enthused.

[Ravi]

This is our week for early voting. The percentages will only decreased from here forward

[SDShack]

No surprise. “You ain’t black” was the first mistake. Kamalho was the second. So they trotted out 0zer0 to Philly and Florida to try to get them back on the plantation, and even that failed big time. 3 strikes and you are out. You are going to see absolute panic from the DNC by the end of this week as their early mail-in vote results get swamped by the rising red tide of early in-person votes, followed by the red tsunami on election day.

[reasonisfaith]

How do you factor in the likely shift of black voters away from the democrat party?

Those who won’t vote at all, and those who will vote Trump?

Seems like the general uncertainty about this is high. But it does seem to be certain that the general movement is in our favor.

[Red Badger]

Doesn’t mean they are all voting for Biden. .......................

[Cowboy Bob]

If the Blacks were smart, they would use this election to mae a "statement" to the Democrats - Don't take us for granted.

How?

If they were to vote in a block for Biden, and Biden loses, they have no clout.

If they vote in mass for Trump and Trum wins (he will), then the Blacks can say: "Hey, if we all had voted for Biden, he would have won. Next time, show us some respect."

Voting for Trump would be a no-lose situation for the Blacks.

[SDShack]

I said a few days ago as the early voting trends started showing a red wave, that Trump would probably target VA just to rub the deep state’s nose in it.

[Cowboy Bob]

Sorry for the typos...

[bort]

So the number of people on FR who think VA is in play has now doubled. Excellent!!
_________________________________________________
Here’s why I think VA will be close.

1) Both campaigns are ignoring it. Republicans show up without attention. Democrats base voters need inspiration to show up.

2) VA Dems have been told that Biden will win nationally by 10 points. There is no sense of urgency.

3) The gun-grab and liberal abortion grab, among other things, has activated the 2/3 of the state that are more traditional.

4) The black vote is not showing up in the numbers Dems need to feel highly confident.

5) The school closures in NOVA are pissing moms off, and they are starting to catch on that this is political and not about safety.

6) Maryland had a similar experience in 2014, when fat-bastard Larry Hogan won a shocking win in Maryland. The rank and file voter had enough of Democrats in the state. I think we might see another Maryland/2014 shocker.

I’m giving Trump a 35% chance of winning VA.

[pnut22]

I think the blacks who are voting Trump would crawl over broken glass to vote for him. Joe’s share of the black vote seem much less motivated. Don’t think even Obama helped that situation.

[Coop]

Well, it’s more than nose rubbing. The GOP needs to win back House seats in VA02 and VA07, plus perhaps score a big Senate upset.

[11th_VA]

Great post !!

[11th_VA]

So the number of people on FR who think VA is in play has now doubled.

Trump will need to pick up a few states like VA, NH, NV to claim victory by Nov 5/6. Looks like OH, NC, PA, IA won’t finish counting for a week or more.

[Lockbox]

The DNC is make a fatal error, assuming that all blacks are voting for Biden.