So the number of people on FR who think VA is in play has now doubled. Excellent!!
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Here’s why I think VA will be close.
1) Both campaigns are ignoring it. Republicans show up without attention. Democrats base voters need inspiration to show up.
2) VA Dems have been told that Biden will win nationally by 10 points. There is no sense of urgency.
3) The gun-grab and liberal abortion grab, among other things, has activated the 2/3 of the state that are more traditional.
4) The black vote is not showing up in the numbers Dems need to feel highly confident.
5) The school closures in NOVA are pissing moms off, and they are starting to catch on that this is political and not about safety.
6) Maryland had a similar experience in 2014, when fat-bastard Larry Hogan won a shocking win in Maryland. The rank and file voter had enough of Democrats in the state. I think we might see another Maryland/2014 shocker.
I’m giving Trump a 35% chance of winning VA.
I have seen many people stating that there’s no way Pres. Trump can win VA, that’s it’s “deep blue” or other such comments. I find such opinions misinformed at best. In 2016 Trump lost VA by 4.9 points, with Gov/Sen Tim Kaine on the Dem ticket. Johnson earned 3.0% of the vote, while McMullin took another 1.4%. Stein only took 0.7%, presumably from Clinton. For simplicity’s sake, presume all GOP votes go to Trump and all lib votes go to Biden. Suddenly that 4.9-point deficit becomes only 1.2 points. 4.9 minus Johnson/McMullin (3.0+1.4) = 0.5, add on Stein’s 0.7 = 1.2. A much more manageable deficit, even if northern VA is blue.
And neither Biden nor Harris are from VA. I was encouraged by Trump’s visit to Newport News. He was trying to help Scott Taylor (VA-02) and Nick Freitas (VA-07) flip a couple of House seats to take the gavel away from Pelosi. If the Trump campaign made a real play (read: $$) for VA’s votes, I’m confident he’d win. But since he doesn’t need VA’s 13 votes to win re-election, I’m not sure if VA ultimately falls into his column. By the way, US Army LTC Daniel Gade is the Republican trying to take Mark Warner’s Senate seat away from him.
All three of the above candidates are military veterans.