Posted on 07/07/2020 6:59:57 AM PDT by MrChips
Does anyone have any real information on what the real numbers are for COVID-19 cases and deaths?
On the one hand, I have read that the number of cases is inflated by “probable“ cases. For example, you become infected and your wife and three children are suddenly considered “probable” and thrown into the count. Is that true?
On the other hand, I have also read that the number of deaths is exaggerated because many, although infected, die of other causes and yet are counted in the total Is that true?
Please chime in. Thanks.
I don’t think real, specific numbers are achievable at this point. But, in 2021 we should be able to look back at 2020 and gauge total number of deaths. More than 2019? 2018? 2017? Will we see evidence that a terrible pandemic swept the nation? Or will mortality rates indicate “business as usual”?
Only God knows the true numbers because the human condition tends to produce lies, damnable lies, and statistics to support points of view. However Freeper DoughtyOne has been posting a daily stat thread that, although populated by goverment and ngo agency stats, provides an unbiased report.
http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3862560/posts
I think all the numbers are garbage. Pure, cherry-picked, manipulated garbage. Just like AGW.
If Trump wins 2020 there will be 6 billion deaths in the US alone because Trump doesnt wear a mask.
If Biden wins, Covid will be gone on Jan 20
The ONLY number I watch is the death number. Someone is either alive or they are dead. But even that one can be off if they are calling all people who die with the antibodies in them a “CV19 death”. A friend’s cousin was admited at age 62 into the hospital with severe pneumonia and bronchitis. It killed him. However, his corpse showed positive for CV19 so they logged it as a CV19 death.
Look for the references for where they get their information. Some get reports directly from county health departments around the country. Others get the data from state offices instead.
https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic#Epidemiology
A couple of points:
The “numbers” are all over the place and you will be chasing your tail trying to find them. It really isn’t worth the time and effort.
What IS important is YOUR physical condition (and those to whom you are close.) Know the risks and keep up your defensive measures as they are applicable.
Now, to your point: The way that pandemics are measured is to take the death rate over time and compare it (adjusted for a number of growth factors) to the deaths for the period. This will not give you the COVID deaths per se, but it will show the impact over time.
For example, for your area, state, county, whatever...look at deaths in 2018, 2019 and compare them for deaths in 2020. The difference is the “impact” of the virus.
I have written all along that tracking this stuff nationally or globally is like counting raindrops. You know that its raining in the country. But is it raining on YOUR garden? That is really all that matters.
Trying to pin down accurate numbers is a fools errand (I am not calling YOU a fool—but its an exercise that is just going to piss you off in the end.)
Right now in our county, the numbers of deaths are up quite a bit over a 3 year average. Admittedly, in our county there were a couple of nursing homes that got slammed. (Western Massachusetts.)
Overall, testing right now is high and the % of positives to tests is about 1%.
Yesterday my former employer, a local hospital, declared that they are covid free for the first time since mid-march.
“your wife and three children are suddenly considered “probable””
Only if they have a symptom, like sneezing, runny nose, sore throat, .... forgive the fact that these are symptoms for thousands of things, but they are suddenly in the count at that point
Truth is the first casualty of war.
A family member works and issues all of the death certificates in the county, the numbers of death are much much higher than being reported.
Tell a Democrat that the elections should be postponed until March because “if it saves just one life it’s worth it.”
Check out this CDC page, which is buried on their website: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm .
Looking at the daily COVIR-19 Deaths, we peaked in mid-April, and now the rate has significantly decreased, which is why they are no longer reported IMHO.
With all the bureaucratic agencies involved in collecting and presenting data there’s no telling how long it will take to compile a reasonably accurate picture. And there are obvious political biases at play that are not going to go away. Its a mess right now.
Just think...we spend billions every year to fund these agencies and they can’t count or even manage to be consistent.
I watch Colorado but the stat release should be the same for all states. Starting on May 15, IIRC, states changed how they count CV deaths. There are two counts, one is called “deaths from CV19” meaning CV19 is shown on the death cert as the cause of death. The other count is called “deaths among cases”. This count adds deaths of patients who died from some other malady (cancer, heart attack, etc.) on the death cert but also had tested positive for CV19.
Collection sites are posting the higher number. If you want the real number, you have to go to each state’s site and use the lower number.
In Colorado that will lower deaths as of yesterday from 1691 to 1,592.
https://covid19.colorado.gov/data/case-data
Do that for all 50 states and you’ll have the real death number (maybe).
It all depends on the accuracy of the criteria used to classify the death however. The count can be right but is it based on reality?
Case numbers without severity of symptoms is irrelevant information. If you’re not sick and only know you are positive from a test, that just means we are one person closer to herd immunity.
Truth is the first casualty of war.
************
Its also a casualty of politics, which probably led to the war.
I watched one of the main person I charge of the Houston Medical Hospital system of the Wall Street segment of Fox a few days ago. She said Houston was not overwhelmed nor have the cases increased. She explained that the patients who were not allowed to have elective and other scheduled surgeries were now coming back in to the hospitals. Also they are being tested for Covid and almost all are asymptomatic and really no one in ICU. Also she said they are testing patients everyday for Covid and counting each test on the same patient as a new case. She said reason for this was the hospitals are broke do to being shutdown for only CV cases and now with the Care Act they collect 20% more for Medicare per case
reported. It is all a $$ scam and also to bring down Trump
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