Why Sweden’s relaxed stance toward coronavirus will be difficult to replicate elsewhere, Goldman Sachs analysts say

Unlike its European neighbors, there was no lockdown, bars, restaurants are open, as are hairdressers and gyms.

Sweden’s economic activity appears to be stronger than neighboring countries.

While Trump is right, Sweden’s number of deaths per million residents is lower than other European countries including Spain, Italy and the U.K.

(At 243, according to Deutsche Bank-compiled figures, Sweden’s deaths per million residents is higher than the U.S. at 211.)

The early economic numbers seem to be, on the surface, favorable. Activity as measured by Google’s GOOG, +3.10% tracker of mobile phone usage hasn’t dropped in Sweden as much as it has in other countries.

Still, analysts at Goldman Sachs say Sweden benefits from favorable demographics. Its population density is about half that of Italy, and Sweden has a high proportion of single-occupancy households, the analysts point out.

When the Goldman analysts combine proportion of single-occupancy households, the share of population aged at least 65 years old, hospital beds per million and confirmed cases per million, Sweden is more or less where one would forecast.

We conclude that Sweden is not particularly suited as a reference point for Coronavirus response of other countries, as our analysis suggests that lower infection rate is likely to reflect in part less testing, while demographic and health-care factors may help explain fatality rate. In our view, the Swedish experience therefore cannot be extrapolated

The culture tends to be compliant. They had the situation explained and they acted like adults.

While it’s time to reopen the US, we are not a compliant nation. It would likely be very different here.

But as long as there are beds available in the ICU, let it rip.

THE MESSAGE IS:

Sure, no lockdown worked fine for Sweden, and, yes, maybe the US and other countries did blow up their economies unnecessarily, but, hey, your country is not precisely like Sweden, and therefore doing exactly what your masters tell you is still probably your safest bet.

“We conclude that Sweden is not particularly suited as a reference point for Coronavirus response of other countries”

Lock-down-free mitigations seem to be working in Taiwan, as well, though, even better than in Sweden, in fact.

Country-level statistics are a random and improper way to speak about Covid-19. Every country has clear pockets of both geography and demographics. No politician will ever give you the facts about this, because its not at all politically correct.

Here in the NY State for example, 91% of Covid-19 deaths have been centered on NY City and 4 surrounding counties. Within NY City, you can even drill down to a few hotspots like Bronx and Queens.

NY City and those same 4 counties also account for 44% of ENTIRE USA Covid-19 deaths.

America’s Covid-19 “epidemic” is located in about 5 major urban areas, led by NY City.

Let’s call a spade a spade

We conclude that Sweden is not particularly suited as a reference point for Coronavirus response of other countries, as our analysis suggests that lower infection rate is likely to reflect in part less testing, while demographic and health-care factors may help explain fatality rate. In our view, the Swedish experience therefore cannot be extrapolated

Sorry Steve Goldman from Goldman Sachs.

Your arguments are weak. I'm not buying your conclusion.

America’s Covid-19 “epidemic” is located in about 5 major urban areas, led by NY City.

Steal a page from China and quarantine these areas, keep these areas from traveling to other parts of the U.S. and contaminating the rest of the country. Then open the rest of the country.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.