That's ok...the millenials are quite efficient at finding ways out of this life.
Posted on 03/29/2020 3:46:09 PM PDT by daniel1212
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Excerpt: The Boomers Will Sacrifice Themselves on the Beaches of COVID-19 (March 24) “According to the Journal of the American Medical Association, it is more likely that the U.S. will suffer a mortality rate of about 2.3 percent. For the Boomers, that’s 851,000 fatalities. That’s not only double the number of Americans killed in World War II, a breathtakingly grim possibility, it outstrips the number of dead from the American Civil War, whose fatality stats have been recently revised upwards to more than 700,000. But even a 2.3 percent national mortality rate (a virus that will kill seven million Americans) would have been happily embraced by the major powers in 1946.” “Of course, the mortality rate suffered by Americans in World War II is modest when compared to their enemies (including those of all ages who died under the rain of bombs dropped on Tokyo and Dresden) and most of their allies. Two thirds of males born in the Soviet Union in 1923 were dead by 1945, with a 7.2 percent death rate for Soviet soldiers of all nationalities. And it wasn’t just the Germans who killed Soviets: the Red Army executed 217,000 of its own men for desertion, over half the number of total U.S. combat deaths throughout the entire war. (“It takes a brave man to be a coward in the Red Army,” Soviet Marshall Georgy Zhukov observed.)” (https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/the-boomers-will-sacrifice-themselves-on-the-beaches-of-covid-19/) |
Meanwhile, although Covid-19 has hardly competed its run, yet for comparison with the flu we have the morality rate for the flu per state for the 2017-2018 season and total deaths, the latter of which I have provided along side the Covid-19 counts in the table below.
And according to estimates, between 61,000 to 80,000 Americans died during the 2017-2018 season, the latter being the highest death toll in 40 years. During that 2017-2018 season, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) was at or above the epidemic threshold for 16 consecutive weeks. Nationally, mortality attributed to P&I exceeded 10.0% for four consecutive weeks, peaking at 10.8% during the week ending January 20, 2018, (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season-2017-2018.htm) with older Americans dying at a rate of 169 Americans a day, or seven people per hour. (https://www.aarp.org/health/conditions-treatments/info-2018/older-flu-deaths-rising.html Additional stats on the current 2019-2020 flu season are provided below the table.
It is estimated that about 80% of those infected with Covid-19 experience a mild case [WHO said the like] – about as serious as a regular cold – and recover without needing any special treatment. while a study in Iceland reports that half of coronavirus carriers show no symptoms, which statistically lowers the death rate vs. calculating it from reported cases. Those who are most vulnerable to death from Covid-19 are the aged with certain other heath conditions, thus 80 percent of US coronavirus deaths are people 65 and older. Then again, America murders over 2,000 of the most vulnerable souls a day (2017: https://www.guttmacher.org/fact-sheet/induced-abortion-united-states), while (for perspective) about 90 people die each day in the US from crashes, which are among the over 7,000 Americans who die every day in the US from a wide range of causes. (https://www.weisspaarz.com/leading-causes-death-by-state/)
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Excerpt: Univ. of Washington researchers predict 80,000 COVID-19 deaths in U.S. by July (March 26, 2020) If gaps in health care resources aren’t filled, more than 80,000 Americans will die over the next four months due to the coronavirus pandemic, epidemiologists at the University of Washington predict. Researchers at the UW’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation say their forecast takes current policies on social distancing into account. The problem is that shortages of hospital beds and medical supplies are projected to boost the death toll nevertheless. (https://www.geekwire.com/2020/univ-washington-epidemiologists-predict-80000-covid-19-deaths-u-s-july/) |
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Excerpt: 90 percent of Americans now staying home to prevent coronavirus spread A Washington Post-ABC News poll found roughly 9 in 10 Americans say they are staying home as much as possible and practicing social distancing to avoid becoming infected with the virus. The poll says nearly 9 in 10 have stopped going to bars and restaurants, while about 6 in 10 have stockpiled food and household supplies. That’s compared to a survey by the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) taken less than two weeks ago that found 40 percent of Americans said their lives had been disrupted with only 16 percent calling those disruptions significant, according to The Washington Post. (https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/489813-majority-of-americans-staying-home-as-much-as_) |
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Excerpts from extensive page: Don’t Panic: The comprehensive Ars Technica guide to the coronavirus [Updated 3/27] https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/dont-panic-the-comprehensive-ars-technica-guide-to-the-coronavirus/ According to data from nearly 56,000 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients in China, the rundown of common symptoms went as follows: 88 percent had a fever 68 percent had a dry cough 38 percent had fatigue 33 percent coughed up phlegm 19 percent had shortness of breath 15 percent had joint or muscle pain 14 percent had a sore throat 14 percent headache 11 percent had chills 5 percent had nausea or vomiting 5 percent had nasal congestion 4 percent had diarrhea Less than one percent coughed up blood or blood-stained mucus Less than one percent had watery eyes In an epidemiological study of 44,672 confirmed cases in China, authored by an emergency response team of epidemiologists and published by the Chinese CDC, researchers reported that about 81 percent of cases were considered mild. The researchers defined mild cases as those ranging from the slightest symptoms to mild pneumonia. None of the mild cases were fatal; all recovered. Otherwise, about 14 percent were considered severe, which was defined as cases with difficult or labored breathing, an increased rate of breathing, and decreased blood oxygen levels. None of the severe cases were fatal; all recovered. Nearly 5 percent of cases were considered critical. These cases included respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction or failure. About half of these patients died. [Map is here: https://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/covid-19-2.001-640x480.jpeg] |
Oh, excellent. That's reassuring.
Said no one ever.
It is estimated that 50% of deaths related to covid had less than one year to live without covid.
It was always this way, but in order to really get rhe numbers right, we are gonna need to do what South Korea and Israel have now started.
Near 100% percent, repeated, testing of the population. They have determined, that while unwanted by some, this is their best way to safely get their economies rolling.
As well, testing can determine who has already unknowingly had CV-19, as they will have the antibodies, and then inform as to the potential pockets to watch put for.
Because we have had this longer than most are aware, this is the only safe way to know who is safe, and where is safe.
Otherwise, the CDC cannot contribute much by way of information.
Unfortunately, you can know, this is going to make people like Bill Gates and his ilk that much more money.
That is another big megative...
That's ok...the millenials are quite efficient at finding ways out of this life.
Actually it is.
Among young adults 20-44 years old: The CDC reports with this entire group only 14.3 percent were hospitalized, with 2 percent being in the ICU, and having a 0.1 percent fatality rate .
Consider by comparison:
Hospitalized Patients with 2009 H1N1 Influenza in the United States, April–June 2009
Of the 272 patients we studied, 25% were admitted to an intensive care unit and 7% died. Forty-five percent of the patients were children under the age of 18 years, - https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa0906695
FluWatch report: January 28, 2018 to February 3, 2018 (week 5) [Canada] To date this season, 511 pediatric hospitalizations have been reported by the IMPACT network, 334 (65%) of which were associated with influenza A. Children 0-23 months accounted for the largest proportion of influenza A hospitalizations (40%). Among the 177 hospitalizations due to influenza B, children 5-9 years accounted for the largest proportion of cases (31%).
FluWatch report: January 28, 2018 to February 3, 2018 (week 5)
Meanwhile, wo do not want people to be sick, even if deaths are very rare for youth, but if we are going to quarantine them (versus telling them to keep their distance from the aged), then to be consistent as regards another risky behavior,
About 6 million motor vehicle accidents happen every year in America, with over 6,000 per day suffering injuries or disabilities , and over 90 Americans a day dying as a result. Teens aged 16-19 experience motor vehicle crashes higher than any other age group, and are nearly three times more likely than drivers aged 20 and older to be in a fatal crash, yet drivers age 80 and older have the highest rates of driver deaths. The economic and societal harm from motor vehicle crashes amounting to a whopping $871 billion in a single year!
And once we require garage-in-place and a 6 car length for essential travel, then exercise can be greatly curtailed since,
"Each year in the U.S., approximately 19,000 people die from unintentional falls, 500,000 are hospitalized, and 8 million are treated in Emergency Departments. Among those aged 20–44 years, 67% (95% CI 63%, 71%) of falls occurred during sports or exercise." - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2897244/
And work:
Approximately 3.6 million occupational injuries and illnesses were treated in emergency departments in 1998. Younger workers, particularly males, continue to have the highest rates of work related injuries. ..three fourths of all emergency department treated injuries occur to workers 20-44 years of age. - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11565966
Like requires some calculated risks.
Actually after about a week such are no longer infectious.
People infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which causes the disease, may test positive for the virus both before and after they have symptoms. But a new study of nine people who contracted the virus in Germany suggests that people are mainly contagious before they have symptoms and in the first week of the disease. - https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-most-contagious-before-during-first-week-symptoms
So now they can move from their Mother’s basement into her old master bedroom.
Interesting.
The following needs to be reconciled:
Among young adults 20-44 years old:
The CDC reports with this entire group only 14.3 percent were hospitalized, with 2 percent being in the ICU, and having a 0.1 percent fatality rate.
Adults ages 30 to 49 years:
Italy had a 0.3 percent fatality rate for this group, Spain, a 0.2 percen; China 0.2 percent; and South Korea had 0.1 percent.
Those 5 years bumps up the group to triple in Italy, and double in Spain and China. Is it purely the difference in numbers in the group? 20vs25?
The CDC is U.S., while the older one is then the higher the fatality rate.
Relevant:
Coronavirus Modeling Had Faulty Assumptions, the Real Data Gives Us Hope 3/29/2020, 9:37:50 AM · by SeekAndFind · 37 replies PJ Media ^ | 03/28/2020 | Rich Fernandez
The real death rate of COVID-19 in the U.S. may be 140 times smaller than what is being reported
COVID-19 could be a tenth as deadly as the flu in America: Stanford Med professors ; ‘Epidemiological modelers haven’t adequately adapted their estimates’ 3/29/2020, 8:44:07 PM · by SeekAndFind · 45 replies The College Fix ^ | 03/29/2020 | Greg Piper You can run around preaching that the sky is falling, or you can look at the numbers we already have and make intelligent forecasts.Joining their colleague John Ioannidis in throwing cold water on coronavirus conventional wisdom, professors at the Stanford University School of Medicine warn that the apocalyptic figures thrown around for COVID-19 in America “could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high.â€Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya write in The Wall Street Journal that we are focused on the wrong statistic: deaths from identified cases. Because of “selection bias in testing†and limited data on the extent of that bias,
This data is outdated now that some of these things are happening in the u.s. (kids dying).
Please show me the figures for fatalities in relation to cases and estimated infections.
What I know is that before it got to the U.S., all the stats had zero deaths for kids under 20. Even with underlying issues.
That hasn’t been the case in the U.S.
Kids have certainly died and they’ve identified about 8 strains.
Which means it’s mutating.
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