Posted on 03/30/2020 1:40:01 AM PDT by grundle
It’s possible that the number of people in the U.S. who are infected with COVID-19 is much bigger than the number that is being currently reported, but many of those people haven’t gotten substantially sick, and so haven’t gotten tested.
The death rate is calculated by dividing the number of people who die by the number who get infected.
But while we do have accurate information about the numerator, we really have no idea what the denominator is. It’s possible that the real denominator is magnitudes bigger than what is being reported, because most infected people have either no symptoms or minor symptoms, and thus, don’t get tested. If this is indeed the case, then it’s possible that the real death rate is far, far lower than the one that is being reported.
As of this writing (early March 30, 2020), in the U.S., 142,735 people have tested positive for COVID-19, and of those, 2,489 have died from it. (I got those numbers from this link, which is continuously being updated.)
Based on these numbers, the fatality rate in the U.S. is 1.744%
Meanwhile, Iceland tested a large segment of its population, including people with no symptoms, and found that 6.3% of them have COVID-19.
The U.S. has 328 million people. If we extrapolate Iceland’s figure of 6.3% to the U.S., it would suggest that more than 20 million people in the U.S. have COVID-19. (I realize that extrapolating Iceland’s test results to the U.S. is not the ideal way to determine the rate of infection in the U.S. But given the absence of this particular type of widespread testing in the U.S., it’s probably the most accurate guess that we can make at this point in time. Hopefully, such widespread testing will be done in the U.S., and we will then have a more accurate number.)
So for the U.S., the real denominator may be 140 times bigger than the one that is being reported.
Which, if true, would indicate that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is more than two magnitudes smaller than what is being reported.
And, if true, would mean that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is 0.01246%.
Yeah, I am tired of hearing about the number of deaths constantly hyped by the useless media and their ilk. The only figures I will listen to are those per-Capita (as a percentage of the population) and as a percentage of those known infected. All else is just noise.
But if nobody panics then nobody listens to the lamestream media lies
Using “Dan Math” there would be about 585,000 COVID cases in US hospitals...you would think someone would notice/document that...sources are showing about 19,730 hospitalized in the US with COVID-19.
“Dan Math” = 328 million/.063 = 20,664,000/0.0283 (Iceland serious/hospitalized percentage) = 584,791 hospitalized in the US.
‘But if nobody panics then nobody listens to the lamestream media lies’
yes, how will the sheeple be able to bleat their virtue to us, the great Satans, who only wish to eat something other than take out, or get a haircut if we need it...
Idiotic use of numbers all around.
Of course there are more with it than being tested for it. And the early death rates globally are likely high for the US ultimately. (But that is made up for to some degree by how widely it is spreading.)
But most of those who have been infected were only infected recently, which means that many haven’t even developed symptoms and of those who have to the degree to get tested, probably mostly still have another couple of weeks before they die if that’s what happens.
The apparent biggest opportunity to cut the rate of dath is getting the chloroquine cocktail to the infected fast enough.
Which, if true...
The ONLY number we really know with accuracy is how many dead we have from the Chicom virus. We don’t have widespread testing, and many who don’t have symptoms are out infecting others as we speak.
The CDC says the peak rate of death in the U.S. will PROBABLY occur in 2 more weeks. So those about to die are just now becoming infected.
We’ll be on the way to recovery by June 1st, according to the Sunday national brief.
This is not the time to say we should blow off what the best medical experts are saying because some MORON who calls himself “Dan from squirrel hill” implies this virus is not nearly as dangerous as the government says, because Dan from Squirrel hill with no qualifications or proof says so, with dubious arithmetic.
And btw it’s “orders of magnitude” not “magnitudes”.
I hope you are not “Dan from squirrel hill” because I already have a low opinion of the post without you actually being the poster, promoting his own blog.
Someone should tell Dumba$$ Dan from squirrel hill to tell this ER nurse she is worrying too much ‘by magnitudes’.
https://www.instagram.com/tv/B-GX-D1DKJ_/?utm_source=ig_embed
Lamestream lies? Stop passing the Buck. Trump is daily pushing those stats. So-I guess he’s now the biggest idiot. Either support your president or call him out. But stop blaming everyone else for stuff he is saying too and stuff he agrees with. Your cognitive dissonance is staggering-and more than a little embarrassing.
I just think the death rate is dubious considering the age and health condition of the victims. As I said in another thread, my mother died in February at age 92 in a nursing home. It wasn’t unexpected, and at the time we all knew she had weeks at most left to live. But if she had contracted COVID-19 in December or January, I’m certain she would have died then. And then she would have been counted as a COVID-19 death statistic.
For a person that challenged the flu would probably have had the same result.
For people with underlying conditions such as diabetes, COPD, asthma, etc. we don’t list those as causes of death if they die during a bout with the flu either, though there is often a block on the death certificate to list contributing factors.
There are plenty of stories of otherwise healthy and young people dying from this virus, more so than with the seasonal flu.
The bottom line is, it’s 10 times more virulent and 10 times more deadly than the flu. And complicating this is the fact that the virus is highly transmissible even among those with no symptoms, at least for several days. Since we don’t have widespread testing we can’t take people who are infected out of circulation fast enough — it’s impossible without testing to know who is infecting who, and therefore without universal testing the virus will continue to spread, sometimes quickly, in large clusters from only one person.
No there isn't.
Yeah, just ignore everything that is happening in the hospitals. It’s all fake.
To get Trump.
“Since March 14 deCODE, a subsidiary of the California biotech giant Amgen, has offered a free coronavirus test to any Icelander, sick or healthy, who simply fills out an online form”
So who do you think decides to take the test more? Someone with a cold or a nasty sore throat or someone who has no symptoms? I think the sick are more likely to get a test. So extrapolating the infection rate using this information about a free test is unreasonable and produces an infection rate biased high. We need real random testing to find the true infection rate.
Can I get an Amen?
source?
Wow. The two trillion fixed it in less than a week. Thanks feral government for torpedoing our children’s canoe. Bastard, liars and cheats. Just what the sheople want and need
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