Posted on 03/27/2020 9:27:41 AM PDT by Mariner
Yesterday's thread here:
http://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3828581/posts?page=1
In one of the state updates I posted yesterday, they listed the underlying conditions that were associate with the fatalities. IIRC, biggest segment by far was obesity and diabetes, I think it was around 60 percent, but I cant find the post. Im sure it will come back up in the next state update. Lung issues had a much lower percentage, and that surprised me.
Man, the flubros are worked up today.
Lil:
That makes sense to me. When folks figure out just how bad it is going to be in the US (because of the obesity factor) they are going to freak...
I live near Springfield MA. Probably 150,000 pop. They have 20+ police officers out. They just got approval for 70 National Guard troops (probably MPs) who will get pulled from THEIR communities to come there.
No, that is not a major crisis. But, it leads me to ask how much we will be able to steal from Peter to pay Paul. Its a small example of what we can expect in the large cities.
This is one of the reasons our administration is saying “Don’t get a test if you don’t have symptoms.” It’s not only wasting a test but it can be deceptive to the person getting the test, who then maybe walks around as if normal.
One of the dirty little secrets the “it just NYC” crowd don’t realize is that New York City hospitals are among the very best in the world.
At the end of the day the NYC mortality rates (deaths/cases) will be _lower_ than the rest of the US (imho) despite all of the challenges facing NYC now.
I think we need to stop hoping that things will level off. It is pretty clear the trajectory in cities is pretty consistent.
There are those that think we are in the middle of this. I suggest a very high percent of the US hadnt really begun yet. There will be an increase across the country following the same model of NYC.
There will be a thread #100 before this is in the middle.
Analysis of the epidemic growth of the early 2019-nCoV outbreak using internationally confirmed cases
Assuming the travel rate to the selected countries and regions is constant over the study period, we found that the epidemic was doubling in size every 2.9 days (95% credible interval [CrI], 2 days—4.1 days). Using previously reported serial interval for 2019-nCoV, the estimated basic reproduction number is 5.7 (95% CrI, 3.4—9.2). The estimates did not change substantially if we assumed the travel rate doubled in the last 3 days before January 23, when we used previously reported incubation interval for severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), or when we changed the hyperparameters in our prior specification. Conclusions: Our estimated epidemiological parameters are higher than an earlier report using confirmed cases in Wuhan. This indicates the 2019-nCoV could have been spreading faster than previous estimates.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020941v1
Comment: the numbers Ive been tracking in GA seem to fit this. When they were catching up testing, the rate was every other day, but now it appears to be closer to every third day:
3/6 - 3
3/7 - 5
3/8 - 7
3/9 - 12
3/10 - 17
3/11 - 20
3/12 - 32
3/13 - 42
3/14 - 64
3/15 - 99
3/16 - 121
3/17 x 141
3/18 - 197
3/19 - 287
3/20 -420 - 16 deaths
3/21 -555 - 20
3/22 - 620 - 26
3/23 - 772
3/24 - 1026 - 38
3/25 - 1387 - 47
3/26 - 1643 - 56
3/27 - 2198 - 65
I call that our “first peak”.
Then we start up the economy, and then hit our “second peak”, which will be a lot bigger than the “first peak”.
and then repeat a few more times.... :-(
I really do think so, providing the politicians don't kill us. We can all handle the virus with some common sense :)
In police work, however, the Occam’s Razor principle is that the best solution is the one that involves the least amount of investigation.
Follow the money and youll see why they oppose the hydroxycholoquine treatment.
VA
Number of People Tested 9166
Cases: 739
Hospitalizations: 99
Deaths: 17
68.7% of the cases are under age 60
More data at link:
“At the end of the day the NYC mortality rates (deaths/cases) will be _lower_ than the rest of the US”
Hope you are right, I just saw the video about the public housing there.
GEOTUS Trump has pulled back the curtain on much of the propaganda ("Fake News").
I have actually been inside NYC hospitals, and those folks are real pros who have seen _everything_....
If you are in really bad shape, those are the types of hospitals you want taking care of you.
ITALY
Italy - No coronavirus infections in this village in Lombardy
Today, 08:09 AM
Coronavirus, no infection in Ferrera Erbognone: analyzes begin
The country, in the province of Pavia, has a thousand inhabitants and nobody tested positive for Covid-19. Thus, the investigation into the immune system of the residents starts at the Mondino Institute
Trump seemed to be saying yesterday that you are only being given the malaria drug if you would die without it. The same ethical principle as his Right to Try legislation.
Lil:
This little town also blows out of the water claims that most folks in Italy have already caught the disease but had mild symptoms... ;-)
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