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To: PA Engineer

In one of the state updates I posted yesterday, they listed the underlying conditions that were associate with the fatalities. IIRC, biggest segment by far was obesity and diabetes, I think it was around 60 percent, but I can’t find the post. I’m sure it will come back up in the next state update. Lung issues had a much lower percentage, and that surprised me.


621 posted on 03/28/2020 5:59:31 AM PDT by LilFarmer
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Man, the flubros are worked up today.


622 posted on 03/28/2020 6:04:05 AM PDT by Vermont Lt
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To: LilFarmer

Lil:

That makes sense to me. When folks figure out just how bad it is going to be in the US (because of the obesity factor) they are going to freak...


623 posted on 03/28/2020 6:04:58 AM PDT by cgbg (BOLO--escaped SNF resident--Joe Biden)
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To: LilFarmer

Analysis of the epidemic growth of the early 2019-nCoV outbreak using internationally confirmed cases

Assuming the travel rate to the selected countries and regions is constant over the study period, we found that the epidemic was doubling in size every 2.9 days (95% credible interval [CrI], 2 days—4.1 days). Using previously reported serial interval for 2019-nCoV, the estimated basic reproduction number is 5.7 (95% CrI, 3.4—9.2). The estimates did not change substantially if we assumed the travel rate doubled in the last 3 days before January 23, when we used previously reported incubation interval for severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), or when we changed the hyperparameters in our prior specification. Conclusions: Our estimated epidemiological parameters are higher than an earlier report using confirmed cases in Wuhan. This indicates the 2019-nCoV could have been spreading faster than previous estimates.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020941v1

Comment: the numbers I’ve been tracking in GA seem to fit this. When they were catching up testing, the rate was every other day, but now it appears to be closer to every third day:

3/6 - 3
3/7 - 5
3/8 - 7
3/9 - 12
3/10 - 17
3/11 - 20
3/12 - 32
3/13 - 42
3/14 - 64
3/15 - 99
3/16 - 121
3/17 x 141
3/18 - 197
3/19 - 287
3/20 -420 - 16 deaths
3/21 -555 - 20
3/22 - 620 - 26
3/23 - 772
3/24 - 1026 - 38
3/25 - 1387 - 47
3/26 - 1643 - 56
3/27 - 2198 - 65


628 posted on 03/28/2020 6:17:43 AM PDT by LilFarmer
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To: LilFarmer
Thanks. If you find it, I would appreciate reading it.

On another thread today they were making fun of the Chinese using bear bile for treatment. They missed an important datapoint there. The Chinese may be cruel, but they aren't stupid.

Lipid abnormalities have been found in all cases of infection, particularly conjugated bile salts. In our studies we noticed similarities between our rare disease patients and metabolic syndrome. We hypothesize with metabolic syndrome the reduction in pantothenic acid resulted in low hepatic BAAT protein expression, whereas with our patients genetic down regulation was during the next step.

I have to do more thinking on this since B5 may be a long term aid for those try to reverse metabolic syndrome during this outbreak. The best of course is low carb and cyclical fasting for rapid reversal of risk.
783 posted on 03/28/2020 11:31:05 AM PDT by PA Engineer (Liberate America from the Occupation Media.)
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