Analysis of the epidemic growth of the early 2019-nCoV outbreak using internationally confirmed cases
Assuming the travel rate to the selected countries and regions is constant over the study period, we found that the epidemic was doubling in size every 2.9 days (95% credible interval [CrI], 2 days—4.1 days). Using previously reported serial interval for 2019-nCoV, the estimated basic reproduction number is 5.7 (95% CrI, 3.4—9.2). The estimates did not change substantially if we assumed the travel rate doubled in the last 3 days before January 23, when we used previously reported incubation interval for severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), or when we changed the hyperparameters in our prior specification. Conclusions: Our estimated epidemiological parameters are higher than an earlier report using confirmed cases in Wuhan. This indicates the 2019-nCoV could have been spreading faster than previous estimates.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020941v1
Comment: the numbers I’ve been tracking in GA seem to fit this. When they were catching up testing, the rate was every other day, but now it appears to be closer to every third day:
3/6 - 3
3/7 - 5
3/8 - 7
3/9 - 12
3/10 - 17
3/11 - 20
3/12 - 32
3/13 - 42
3/14 - 64
3/15 - 99
3/16 - 121
3/17 x 141
3/18 - 197
3/19 - 287
3/20 -420 - 16 deaths
3/21 -555 - 20
3/22 - 620 - 26
3/23 - 772
3/24 - 1026 - 38
3/25 - 1387 - 47
3/26 - 1643 - 56
3/27 - 2198 - 65
VA
Number of People Tested 9166
Cases: 739
Hospitalizations: 99
Deaths: 17
68.7% of the cases are under age 60
More data at link: