It's real
Posted on 03/17/2020 4:36:45 AM PDT by tatown
What if we compared the mortality rate of influenza and coronavirus using only confirmed cases (no estimates)? People seem to like to use a ~0.1% mortality rate for seasonal flu when comparing it to coronavirus. This 0.1% figures includes all of the estimated influenza cases in the US, using modeling, which dramatically lowers the mortality rate. The same modeling/estimating is never applied to coronavirus. What happens when we only use confirmed cases for each and eliminate the models and estimates for total cases?
Per the CDC the number of CONFIRMED seasonal flu cases this year in the US is 222,552 with 22,000 deaths. This calculates to a mortality rate of ~10%.
The number of confirmed coronavirus case in the US is 4743 with 93 deaths. Using the same math, the mortality rate is 1.9%.
Based on these calculations coronavirus appears no more lethal that the seasonal flu and may in fact be significantly less so. Again, this calculation is void of opinion and hysteria and simply relies on data that is known (confirmed cases and confirmed deaths). No estimates, no models, no Chinese data, Iranian data, Italian data, South Korean, etc...
Maybe of interest -
Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
“Glimmer of hope” — new #COVID19 CFR for Wuhan estimates to be 1.4%. Much lower than ~3% prior. But another study also says that there were likely 6x underdiagnosis in Wuhan. In some ways, Wuhan was diff cuz of countless HCW, new hospitals; and ventilators
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1239763569354383361
;>)
I was thinking yesterday NOW is the time to buy stocks if you’re into that because when the market comes back, those folks who do will make a fortune.
Maybe. But what happens when we get bad economic data over the next few months? Hard to see the market going UP for that. Hope I’m wrong but I’m expecting aftershocks for the rest of the year at a minimum: Housing, banks, airlines, etc.
If you expect your calculations to yield an absolute mortality value for a given bug, yes.
If you are only hoping to compare the mortality of a given plague to historical plagues, using the same methodologies give a good estimate of relative deadliness.
It is striking that the CDC et al compare the seasonal flu death rate (which they calculate using estimated cases) to the Wuhan flu death rate (which they calculate using known, tested cases) and pronounce that the Wu flu is so much worse.
Using confirmed cases restricts the denominator quite a bit.
I just go by what I see and hear. DeWhine and staffers said that their best guess was 100,000 unconfirmed cases in Ohio and that it was increasing at 35% per day - several days ago.
Yet days later, there are only 50 reported actual proven cases in Ohio. And still no deaths.
And if you look at the national numbers (3700 reported a couple days ago) you will see an asterisk. That asterisk says real and SUSPECTED cases.
So, with all these cases, how come more people are not being moved from suspected to real? And if the cases are real, it just means the death toll is orders of magnitude lower than reported.
I’m not at anyone’s throat, I just think that this, so far, is overhyped malarkey.
The same crowd that howls at the though of shutting down a bathhouse?
“I’m not at anyone’s throat, I just think that this, so far, is overhyped malarkey.”
Kinda like the infamous dossier? LOL!
It's real
Leading Causes of Death
Data are for the U.S.
Number of deaths for leading causes of death
Heart disease: 647,457
Cancer: 599,108
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
Diabetes: 83,564
Influenza and pneumonia: 55,672
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 50,633
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173
Source: Deaths: Leading Causes for 2017
And how many Corona virus deaths so far this year?
You've never had the pleasure of coaching a kid through the new math?
A sworn enemy couldn't have devised a better way to raise an entire country of math ingnoanuses (ingnoanus, someone who is both ignorant and a self righteous a-hole who is convinced they are never wrong...)
Go!
Less than 100 confirmed from what I’ve read this morning.
” (ingnoanus, someone who is both ignorant and a self righteous a-hole who is convinced they are never wrong...)”
Had one of those posting all over this board/article just today!
That’s a beautiful hockey stick! Same deal, different calamity.
Haven’t seen him post for a while now. Must be casting his wisdom at someone else arguing another topic on FR
Keep in mind while we are being duped but the Corona virus is nothing but late winter colds. How convenient that this is now a pandemic. This serves multiple purposes. It is an attempt to hurt Trumpster but who it really hurts is us. They are playing us to get Trump. No matter the cost they want Trump. Corona accounts for about 20% of all late winter colds when it switches from a rhino virus to corona and then in spring it is the rhino virus again. But it is more deadly!! No it isn’t. Viruses mutate every year and that is why we have to let our bodies adjust for natural immunity. Remember the flu shot is always from the last years strain so is it really effective on the current years virus? Think how they dupe us every year and the only difference here is they are going to collapse the economy in hopes that we will blame Trump. It is a perfect storm for simple minded people but those of us who have been prepared it is nothing. Sit back and relax, this will be over before April Fools day. That is when most people will figure out they have been suckered once again because they cannot stand to be told what to do.
Oops. that was meant FOR Mr. Preston. I must take more care who I’m replying too!
I wasn’t going to be the one to say it, lest someone think I was self referencing...
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