Search for aliens poses game theory dilemma (old but interesting piece)

New Scientist ^ | December 12, 2012 | Jacob Aaron

[DoodleBob]

SENDING messages into deep space could be the best way for Earthlings to find extraterrestrial intelligence, but it carries a grave risk: alerting hostile aliens to our presence. Game theory may provide a way to navigate this dilemma.

So far the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) has mostly been restricted to listening for signs of technology elsewhere. Only a few attempts have been made to broadcast messages towards distant stars. Many scientists are against such “active” SETI for fear of revealing our presence. If all aliens feel the same way then no one will be broadcasting, and the chance of detecting each other is limited.

To weigh up the potential losses and gains, Harold de Vladar of the Institute of Science and Technology Austria in Klosterneuburg turned to the prisoner’s dilemma, a game-theory problem in which two prisoners choose between admitting their shared crime or keeping quiet, with different sentences depending on what they say. An individual prisoner gets off scot free if they rat on a partner who remains silent, with the silent partner getting a maximum sentence. If they both rat on each other, each gets a medium sentence. By contrast, if both stay silent, both get token sentences – the best overall result.

De Vladar reasoned that the SETI dilemma is essentially the same, but reversed. Mutual silence for prisoners is equivalent to mutual broadcasting for aliens, giving the best results for both civilisations. And while a selfish prisoner rats, a selfish civilisation is silent, waiting for someone else to take the risk of waving “Over here!” at the rest of the universe.

[DoodleBob]

A recent UFO story made me wonder if game theory had been applied to the search for extraterrestrials. It has: For those interested in the technical game theory paper, it is available here. If this is your cup of tea, drink up (it's actually a well-written article and great application if game theory IMHO).

Effectively, the results of the choice/game to try or not try to contact extraterrestrials,as set up in this paper, argue in favor of sending out messages to extraterrestrials even if we're afraid of a Wellsian, science fiction situation...where there is a notable penalty as a consequence of bidirectional broadcasting, for example, because of the possibility of being exploited, attacked, enslaved etc.

The very fact that Earthlings ARE sending such signals means that NASA et al have already decided that this situation is worth the risk.

Discuss.

[gundog]

I wonder how the Dems would spin contact to destroy us.

[BenLurkin]

[BenLurkin]

"It's for the children!"

[Vaquero]

AOC is a space alien. She wants to protect her illegal brethren

[Pelham]

With a fine Chianti and fava beans.

[cgbg]

The very fact that Earthlings ARE sending such signals means that NASA et al have already decided that this situation is worth the risk.

If I were an alien race (with no hostile intentions) I would conclude humans are dumb as rocks (for making that insane reward/risk assessment) and are not worth the trouble of contacting.

I would be looking for intelligent civilizations--they would have created technology to camouflage their presence from possible hostile outsiders.

[Brilliant]

Even if they knew we were here I don’t think they’d be able to do anything about it. People do not appreciate how far away they’d be. Even the closest star is 4.5 light years away. No way could they traverse that. Or would they. And it’s very unlikely that they’d be that close.

[PIF]

Any attack would be casual. Not direct, since a direct attack (fleets of ships etc) would revel the attacker and thus the attacker’s home world to others.

Penalty is always death, and that death would mean being sure the attack was successful: such as a light-speed, hyper-dense object striking the sun causing a nova, a dimensional strike reducing the solar system by one dimension, a strike that changes the local physics and so on, as a failed strike would reveal the attacker.

[BenLurkin]

We have enough problems here already without bringing more from outer space.

[Louis Foxwell]

I had an entirely new perception of AOC recently. When I looked at her without emotion I saw a demonic presence. Think about her emotional life. She is ice cold with a big smile. Her nod of approval at the idea presented to her for a modest proposal was a perfect illustration of her Machiavellian spirit.

[BradyLS]

In Carl Sagan’s book _Contact,_ he points out that we’ve been broadcasting television signals into the cosmos since the 30s. It’s only gotten worse since.

In that time, we’ve not been visited by beings with faster-than-light ships—that we’re aware of. If that’s the case, we can pretty much know that nothing travels faster than the speed of light and we’re relatively safe from beings that are centuries distant. We could broadcast for a long time (in human-years) and never worry about a visitation. Not having found any evidence of visitors on the nearby planets (yet) reinforces the idea that there are none around for perhaps hundreds or thousands of light-years.

On the other hand, if we have been visited by beings with advanced technologies that allow FTL travel, then they know about earth and its inhabitants and where we are in our development. We couldn’t hide it so broadcasting (or not) won’t change anything. They likely control the local planets and stars we’d one day get around to exploring and maybe that’s when formal contact would be made.

[PIF]

Any civilization not worth contacting is worth eliminating: resource consumption plus a breakthrough could happen at any time changing the balance. Strike while they are stupid, blind and powerless.

If a civilization is intelligent enough to create camouflage masking its existence, you would not find it before it found you. Just the act of searching would reveal your existence which is why navy ships use passive radar and sonar.

[PIF]

And it’s very unlikely that they’d be that close.

---

Are you sure?

Three unexplained extra-solar objects have already passed through out solar system ...

[Larry Lucido]

Maybe we can put the transmitter on Mars, complete with fake towns to fool any invaders.

[Bitman]

Even the closest star is 4.5 light years away. No way could they traverse that.

Do you really believe that if a civilization did exist out there that they had a 100,000 year lead over us on the technology curve that they would be worried about a mere 4.5 light years?

[BradyLS]

I’m aware of the object observers have called ʻOumuamua. That was supposedly the first. What are the other two?

[PIF]

In that time, we’ve not been visited by beings with faster-than-light ships—that we’re aware of. If that’s the case, we can pretty much know that nothing travels faster than the speed of light and we’re relatively safe from beings that are centuries distant.

---

A broadcast only give the direction of the broadcaster, not the location. There are millions of stars between us and a possible attacker; the attacker would have to send scouts along that line before locating the source. That’s the good news; the bad news is 3 unexplained extra-solar objects have already passed through our system.

[cgbg]

Note I said “without hostile intentions”.

I understand it is hard to imagine alien civilizations that have no interest in eliminating others, but they are “alien”, and if they have serious high tech they could (among other things) simulate the natives so they could infiltrate at will without giving away their presence.

Terence McKenna has some fascinating “scenarios” that he discusses.

The best disguise would be as a non-intelligent species that could monitor activity and report periodically (simulating natural phenomenon for communication).

Sun Tzu (The Art of War) is full of ideas on how to carry out a long term strategy (that could really be used for peaceful or warlike purposes).

One final thought—are we really worried about dolphins or apes developing into dangerous enemies? If so, why would highly advanced aliens have such fears about us?

[BenLurkin]

Rocks like Ohmomma have probably been spinning in and oit the somar system for billions of years. What’s to explain?