Don’t Underestimate Iran’s Ability to Fight a Bloody War

American Conservative ^ | August 6, 2019 | Pouya Alimagham

[C19fan]

On July 29, President Trump tweeted: “Just remember, Iranians never won a war, but never lost a negotiation.” In just 12 words, Trump leveled a multi-layered, ahistorical insult against both his predecessor, Barack Obama, and Iran.

More importantly, the remarks betray a dangerously ignorant understanding of Iran that could result in another careless Middle East war of choice.

The tweet invokes a clichéd, colonial-era stereotype that Iranians, like other Middle Eastern peoples, are wily swindlers—rapacious, greedy bazaar merchants who aim to take advantage of honest and unsuspecting Westerners. Trump is hardly the first American leader to dabble in such denigrating stereotypes. Wendy Sherman, a senior State Department official and former lead negotiator who helped forge the Iran nuclear deal in 2015, infamously quipped that Iranians could not be trusted because they have “deception in their DNA.”

[C19fan]

As with any recent war the US fights, the US will crush Iranian conventional forces it is the unconventional war that the US will fail at. Someone described the Iran-Iraq war as World War I fought with World War III weapons.

[Sacajaweau]

Iran will go after allies....like Israel...It will be their excuse.

[Spruce]

They will “cheat”. While we are destroying their military assets they will unleash $160,000,000,000 worth of irregulars on our malls, schools, and other soft targets on our soil. Really, really wise to give them pallets of untraceable cash. 🤦‍♂️

[Zhang Fei]

Why would the US invade Iran? Praying Mantis damaged or destroyed half of Iran’s Navy. Praying Mantis redux could wreck Iran’s military aircraft, ships and SAM systems while monkeying with its nuclear program. Think about random recurring cluster bomb attacks incorporating time delayed bomblets fired from Kuwait every few days at suspected nuclear sites.

[gaijin]

The tweet invokes a clichéd, colonial-era stereotype that Iranians, like other Middle Eastern peoples, are wily swindlers—rapacious, greedy bazaar merchants who aim to take advantage of honest and unsuspecting Westerners.

The whole area is chock-full of that type and we are regionally FAMOUS for being the biggest slobbering, bulgding-pockets rube who'll buy the crappiest camel/carpet/diamond/date around.

Diplomatically, we're total idiots:

"Wait, here he comes..! This is gonna be good! Don't laugh, though..!"

[ClearCase_guy]

I’m hoping we avoid a war with Iran.

It’s a very big country. It would be foolish to try to “pacify” the countryside. We are not going to win “hearts and minds”. Any effort at “nation building” would be doomed to failure.

If push comes to shove, we could go in there and just break a whole bunch of stuff. But then we should get out. I think the War Powers Act says the President can use the military for 90 days without Congressional approval. Fine. Maybe we break stuff for 60 days and then spend 30 days pulling our assets out of the country. Done.

[Little Ray]

I’m not underestimating them. They sucked up huge casualties in the war with Iraq and kept coming.
We need to stay out of a fight with Iran.
If do have to fight them, we need to destroy them utterly then LEAVE.
No humanitarian BS.
No “nation-building.”
Leave the survivors squatting in the ruins - let them freeze and starve in the dark.

[Zhang Fei]

[They will “cheat”. While we are destroying their military assets they will unleash $160,000,000,000 worth of irregulars on our malls, schools, and other soft targets on our soil. Really, really wise to give them pallets of untraceable cash. ]

---

That money is gone. Syria, Yemen and the Iranian welfare state, along with considerable official corruption, have chewed through that cash. Every ballistic missile they fire at Saudi Arabia costs about $1m. They’ve probably fired hundreds, if not thousands. The Syrian and Yemeni campaigns have got to be costing billions a year. They don’t just have to arm the rebels - they also have to feed the civilians in rebel zones to stave off starvation in regions where economic activity is at a standstill due to supply problems. Then there’s the officials with their hands in the till.

---

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_involvement_in_the_Syrian_Civil_War
[By mid 2018, Iran had spent tens of billions of dollars on Syria in economic and military aid, not counting the cost of Iran’s own military operations, though estimates vary widely on the exact figure. Mansour Farhang, a United States-based scholar and former Iranian diplomat, calculated that Iran had spent at least $30 billion on Syria in military and economic aid, while Nadim Shehadi estimated the total at $105 billion.[42] The United States Department of State puts the figure much lower, estimating total Iranian costs from 2012 to mid 2018 at around $21 billion: over $16 billion in military aid (including the funding of Iraqi, Palestinian, and Lebanese militias, many of which also fight in Syria) and $4.6 billion in a credit line to Damascus.[43] BBC’s Persian language service published an investigation on the subject, where they posted several estimates (including the aforementioned U.N. estimate) as well as the only two official figures given (credit line: $6 billion; civilian medical supplies, medical equipment, food, and other consumables: $2.8 billion).[44]]

[Zhang Fei]

[If push comes to shove, we could go in there and just break a whole bunch of stuff. But then we should get out. I think the War Powers Act says the President can use the military for 90 days without Congressional approval. Fine. Maybe we break stuff for 60 days and then spend 30 days pulling our assets out of the country. Done.]

---

Why would anyone go in there? Praying Mantis took all of 1 day, and was mostly accomplished with stand-off weaponry.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Praying_Mantis

[aces]

conan, the best things in life is to see your enemies driven before you and the hear the lamentations of their women...

[Mr. Jeeves]

The tweet invokes a clichéd, colonial-era stereotype that Iranians, like other Middle Eastern peoples, are wily swindlers—rapacious, greedy bazaar merchants who aim to take advantage of honest and unsuspecting Westerners.

What stereotype? That’s the entire American garment industry in a nutshell. :)

[blueunicorn6]

This article is just another diatribe by a concern troll.

The author clearly writes that President Trump was talking about the Iranian government, and then launches into some drivel about how everyone puts down the Iranian people.

[gogeo]

I'm sure it will be a bloody war.

To paraphrase Patton, the whole point is to make sure it's their blood, not ours.

[qaz123]

It’s true, you should never under estimate any opponent. But, at the same time you should also be willing to “unleash Hell” if the time comes and not worry about collateral damage, leaving certain things intact to assist in rebuilding, being humanitarian, etc. Basically, go old school, WW2 style and bomb the ever living sh*t out of them.

Toss the rules of Proportionality to the wind.

I remember reading a quote that stated something like....wage war in such a way that your enemy decides when its over....

War with Iran will be bloody. I think what happens outside of Iran, with their proxies will be even worse. The world would soon find out if they and their allies do have “terror sleeping cells” throughout the West, for that “oh sh*t” moment.

While I’m not an adviser to anyone, just some schmo, that country is in ruins and falling further down the hole. It’s wrecked with opium and heroin addiction. Sure, the government has some loyalists, much like Venezuela and NKorea. Let some JDAMS start dropping and we’ll see how loyal they are.

And think, while their population is eating dirt, their money is in the toilet, they still have the rich kids of Tehran, living it up.

https://www.instagram.com/therichkidsoftehran/

Some of dem Persian women are fine as they come.

We’d be better off stirring up a revolution and helping them, than go to war with them.

[himno hero]

...change the nature of the game and engagement to minimize our exposure and maximize the impact.
...like the firebombing of Dresden.

[cymbeline]

“they will unleash $160,000,000,000 worth of irregulars on our malls, schools, and other soft targets”

That’s why we need our guns. If they do as you suggest, irregulars and innocents will die. That’s war and we’ll win it.

[shotgun]

“Wendy Sherman, a senior State Department official and former lead negotiator who helped forge the Iran nuclear deal in 2015, infamously quipped that Iranians could not be trusted because they have “deception in their DNA.””

If the lead negotiator said this, then why did Obama continue to go through with the deal? makes me wonder how much of a kick back he got from that $1.5 billion cash drop...?

[Teacher317]

It’s a very big country.

80m people ties them with France for 18th, just behind Germany. We have 330m.

636k sq mi area puts them 17th, behind Libya. We have 3.8m sq mi.

They have zero carriers, battleships, cruisers, destroyers, nuclear subs... We have some.

They have zero bombers, or fifth generation fighters... or fourth-generation fighters. We have... more than a few. (180 F-22s... 1000 F-18s... 400 KC-135 refueling tankers...)

They have 45 Mig-29 Fulcrum, and 45 F-14s... perfect for a 1980's Top Gun fight. They have 64 F-4's.... that we designed in 1968, and haven't used since 1990.

They have 3 Kilo class subs... three... designed in 1980. They have 23 mini subs, that are 120 tons displacement... 1/20 the size of the Kilo. Our Seawolf class subs are 9300 tons.

It would be foolish to try to “pacify” the countryside. We are not going to win “hearts and minds”. Any effort at “nation building” would be doomed to failure.

Half of the younger generations are VERY pro-Democracy. We don't need to win hearts and minds, they already want Freedom. You really need to find a few friends who live/d there. The mullahs are not popular, and are increasingly desperate to hang on to control... which makes them less popular.

[HamiltonJay]

Throwing children at an entrenched enemy line with single shot and semi automatic weapons was WWI.. but it sure was not WWIII weaponry.

The US would obliterate the standard regular forces in short order.

However if the US decides it wants to “nation build” after it does that, it will get mired down once again.

[SauronOfMordor]

It would be nice if we could precisely locate the homes of all their rich elites, and give each a small JDAM, all over a period of a few hours.