The asteroid....size of a football field that people are freaking out about? Don't sweat it

CNN ^ | 06/06/2019 | Michelle Lou,

[BenLurkin]

You may have seen reports that a massive asteroid the size of a football field is hurtling toward Earth.

Although the European Space Agency (ESA) has placed asteroid 2006QV89 on its Risk List, there's no reason to sound the alarms just yet.

First of all, it's probably not as big as you think it is. The object is roughly 40 meters in diameter, according to the ESA. A football field is 48.5 meters wide and 109 meters long.

The Risk List might sound scary, but that simply means that ESA calculated a non-zero impact probability.

ESA says this particular asteroid has a 1 in 7,299 chance of hitting us. You're more likely to get killed by fireworks, which is a 1 in 340,733 chance.

[dp0622]

1 out of 7000 is very very small but not as small as I thought it was gonna be.

What would happen if a 40 meter asteroid hit earth?

[o-n-money]

7000 to 1 that it will hit earth, but we still play the lottery.

[Reno89519]

Steer it to Mecca.

[BenLurkin]

[Dennis M.]

The Tunguska comet in 1908 is estimated to have been a little bigger and mostly composed of water. It would be a very big event, kind of like a small atomic bomb.

[ProtectOurFreedom]

What is the volume of a football field? Zero.

Can’t be much of a threat.

[DouglasKC]

ESA says this particular asteroid has a 1 in 7,299 chance of hitting us. You're more likely to get killed by fireworks, which is a 1 in 340,733 chance.

If that's not a typo then we're much more likely to be hit by this asteroid then killed by fireworks.

[dp0622]

So you’re saying that at 1,000 meters I dont have to pay off my car or my mortgage?

And my wife can’t bother me anymore?

What’s the downside?

[BenLurkin]

Had to read it twice. Am guessing it means that the chances of being killed by it are less than by fireworks.

[Fedora]

I wasn’t sweating it before, but since it’s CNN telling me not to, now I’m worried. . .

[DouglasKC]

Had to read it twice. Am guessing it means that the chances of being killed by it are less than by fireworks.

I guess..but those are not astronomical odds....

[MMaschin]

Tunguska caused more damage because it exploded in the atmosphere. A solid object of the same mass hitting the earth would cause much less damage.

If you consider the small odds of it hitting Earth, there is a very small chance that it would hit somewhere where the damage would be measurable. Yes if it hit in downtown Manhattan it would cause major damage, but there is a 99.99% chance it would not hit an urban area.

[NormsRevenge]

Imagine if you will.. A giant hunk of space rock. A planet in its crosshairs. moving ever closer at ludicrous speed and accelerating.

One of these days .. it’ll take more than Bond-o and PROACTIV to fix the crater.. The size? Depends where it lands and the angle.. Think small hydrogen bomb tonnage energy potential.. Maybe.

[BenLurkin]

"The European Space Agency lists the odds of impact at a comparable 1 in 7300 on 9 September 2019.[7]"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_QV89

[ETL]

[Telepathic Intruder]

The average density for an asteroid is 2g per cc. That gives it a total mass of about 536 million kg. You can expect an impact velocity of around 30-40 km per second. That gives it an energy anywhere between 57 and 102 megatons of TNT. Big, but not earth-shattering. Not an extinction event.

[BenLurkin]

The downside...well, I guess it depends on how far you are
from where it strikes....

[DouglasKC]

The average density for an asteroid is 2g per cc. That gives it a total mass of about 536 million kg. You can expect an impact velocity of around 30-40 km per second. That gives it an energy anywhere between 57 and 102 megatons of TNT. Big, but not earth-shattering. Not an extinction event.

Unless it lands on ya....

[plain talk]

“ESA says this particular asteroid has a 1 in 7,299 chance of hitting us. You’re more likely to get killed by fireworks, which is a 1 in 340,733 chance.”

Huh? 1 in 7,299 is a higher probability than 1 in 340,733. Something is not right here.