Posted on 06/14/2018 5:32:09 PM PDT by BenLurkin
Dr. Marin and Dr. Beluffi begin their latest study by considering the various concepts that have been proposed for making an interstellar journey...also took into account missions that will be launching in the coming years like NASA’s Parker Solar Probe. This probe will reach record-breaking orbital velocities of up to 724,205 km/h, which works out to about 200 km/s (or 0.067% the speed of light).
With their baseline for speed and travel time established – 200 km/s and 6300 years – Dr. Marin and Dr. Beluffi then set out to determine the minimum number of people needed to ensure that a healthy crew arrived at Proxima b.
“We are using a ...stochastic Monte Carlo code that accounts for all possible outcomes of space simulations by testing every randomized scenario for procreation, life and death. By looping the simulation thousands of times, we get statistical values that are representative of a real space travel for a multi-generational crew. The code accounts for as many biological factors as possible and is currently being developed to include more and more physics.”
…
These biological factors include things like the number of women vs. men, their respective ages, life expectancy, fertility rates, birth rates, and how long the crew would have to reproduce. It also took into account...accidents, disasters, catastrophic events, and the number of crew members likely to be effected by them.
They then averaged the results of these simulations over 100 interstellar journeys based on these various factors and different values to determine the size of the minimum crew... of 98 crew members would be needed to sustain a multi-generational voyage to the nearest star system with a potentially-habitable exoplanet.
(Excerpt) Read more at universetoday.com ...
At least 20,000...Have to make sure that there will always plenty to eat...
In that time frame, it does not matter how many people are sent - the systems will fail long before the journey ends, triple or quadruple redundant backups will fail, every thing will fall apart. 6300 years is longer than the current civilization has lasted.
I’d think the first generation born en route (and that just a few years into the flight) would be VERY pissed they were stuck on a spaceship for life, never to set foot on Earth or any other planet. It would get ugly real fast, and they’d probably mutiny to turn the ship around and get home within their lifetime.
The only viable alternative would be a “sleeper ship” or finding a way to drastically improve speed (or both). 100 years is one thing, but thousands ? Forget it.
120 million of our worst lefties....
I agree completely. And I’ll add that anyone who would so condemn their children to such an awful existence deserve to be gelded before they have the chance to.
And I’ll further add that with no prospects of ever reporting back, that such a voyage, even if not doomed (it’s unlikely Proxima Centauri b. is habitable, even if a ship could actually last long enough to get there and people survive on it), would have no point. Do I give 3 shiites if some dude is transported to another planet if he can never tell me about it? No. And talking about a time frame of THOUSANDS of years, C’mon, set phasers to dumb.
Unless something like “Warp drive” is possible (it might not be and even if it is it would require MASSIVE power) we’re stuck in this solar system. Stuff is just WAY too far away.
You would be breeding a crew of super-mutants!>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Yes, thousands of Freepers!
Right. Like I said stupid idea.
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