Leaked Monmouth U. polling memo: Democrats ‘despondent’; Hillary..., seen as a ‘lying harpy’

https://fellowshipoftheminds.com/2016/10/06/leaked-nj-monmouth-university-polling-memo-democrats-despondent-hillary-unpopular-with-minorities-millennials/ ^

[Cats Pajamas]

The Florida geography is also working against us. Hillary has 53+ Field Offices and they’re empty of volunteers. This lack of enthusiasm is showing up in the voting responses and it’s killing us. The “cell phones” rationale will only hold out for so long.

[conservativepoet]

I read on a board were people have called the numbers on the email and the voice mail claims to be Mr. Murray’s office. The voice mail supposedly confirms the same cell number as in the email. Google search confirms the office number. Can this constitute wire fraud and conspiracy if the email is true.
_______________

Interesting

[usafa92]

Exactly, did you see the supposed questions on her health? Dead, body double, dead, using old footage and incredibly sick, probably infectious. Some people fall for anything.

[Snowybear]

The Washington Compost is saying it’s fake but notice how they don’t do a detailed breakdown on how and why and where the actual memo is fake.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/09/21/fake-polling-memo-prompts-the-question-how-much-are-partisans-willing-to-believe/

Actual memo is here:

https://fellowshipofminds.files.wordpress.com/2016/10/324776022-monmouth.pdf

[af_vet_1981]

Phony as the day is long; their fake crosstabs show Jill Stein at 41%, which is ludicrous, and is totally inconsistent by claiming more Republicans (8%) think Trump is racist then Democrats (3%). It is obviously satire, from the questions to the results.

[JimSEA]

A lying harpie? Why be so kind to her?

[af_vet_1981]

The Washington Compost is saying it’s fake but notice how they don’t do a detailed breakdown on how and why and where the actual memo is fake.

Of course it's fake, as I just explained. How can people be so gullible ?

[Kozy]

Love harpy as the new Hillary adjective.

OK I don’t know if this memo/email is true of not however from the email:

“Birtherism”: 73% of Americans say they don’t know where Obama was born.
A majority of Americans, including Democrats, not just think Hillary Clinton is sick, but “Incredibly sick. Probably infectious and terminal.”
A majority of Americans, including Democrats, think blacks support Hillary for free goodies like phones and tablets.
More Americans think Hillary is secretly supporting ISIS than not.
A majority, including Democrats, believe that Hillary had called ALL Trump-supporters “deplorables”.
The MSM are in cahoots with Hillary and the Democrats.

[conservativepoet]

The fact that the Washington Post has chimed in rather quickly makes me really suspicious.

[4Liberty]

[dowcaet]

When you’re reduced to saying your candidate is the lesser of two evils you know it’s a losing candidacy.

[Chgogal]

Bump.

[MattinNJ]

Same here in NW NJ. Zero Hillary presence. A few Trump signs but no one wants their cars keyed.

[Snowybear]

I find it very improbable that someone would go through THAT much trouble to fake that memo. It’s incredibly detailed.

[Future Useless Eater]

I have not studied the memo in much detail yet, so I don't have an opinion yet either, if it is legitimate.

But the memo WAS saved to Scribd by whoever leaked it. HERE

Someone did a lousy job of blacking out who this was sent FROM

When I SELECT the text, including the blacked-out area, then PASTE that into NOTEPAD, or any other text editor, it shows who it was SENT From: NATE SILVER.

Monmouth University Poll
West Long Branch, NJ 07764
__________________________________________________________________
From: Nate Sliver
To: PATRICK MURRAY [ EYES ONLY ]
 
Subject: Change the Narrative 
Friday, September 16, 2016
Priority Message 
Do Not Copy 
Secure Email / Slack Only


NET MESSAGE: HILLARY-RESURGENCE

Key Notes:
 * Birtherism – “Backfiring”
 * Trump Unfavorables – “Climbing”
 * Minority Voices – “support Hillary”
 * Imply Racism (White Vote = Trump) – “Whites rally/cleave/etc. Trump”
 * Rubio / Murphy: Poll Accurately [ IMMATERIAL ]

SCREENS

AGE: Attached screens will move 80% of targets into the 30-50 age range. Use included statistical model to re-skew for publication.

LOCATION: The location-call screens will favor south Tallahassee, east and north Gainesville, Central Tampa, north and west Jacksonville, west and south Orlando, and much of Dade / Broward counties. Space Coast regions and similar must be carefully screened for demographic.

DEMOGRAPHIC: This should be obvious. We are looking at a heavy minority foundation with a college-white salt. Favored are liberal arts degrees and, especially, sociology. See attached call-files.

EMPLOYMENT: We prefer polling areas of high unemployment for minority response. More are available to take calls during working hours and far, far fewer of them support Republican candidates.

EMBEDED NARRATIVE It is imperative to create a morale boosting narrative in the liberal demographics. Our last published polling note gave liberals a “week before panic.” We must deliver on a turn-around in polls or risk collapse of enthusiasm. The data from our call / email sieve as well as legitimate polling indicates a level of despondency equivalent, roughly, to the Michael Dukakis candidacy. This is due to (a) Trump’s successful presidential-narrative surge and (b) a massive lack of enthusiasm on the part of minority and millennial voters who are beginning to view Obama as a failed president and Hillary Clinton as a ‘lying harpy.’ (word association testing focus groups). In order to rally the male-liberal base we will need to produce “resurgent” Florida polling. The conventional wisdom is that Florida will be the fulcrum state for the election and if it is seen as lost to Trump then we will have domino defections throughout the other swing-states. Presently, our internal analysis shows the Democratic Firewall in extreme jeopardy. This week the news cycle MUST show Hillary regaining the lead in Florida.

STRENGTHS, WEAKNESSES, OPPORTUNITIES, & THREATS

Strengths

Almost none. The voter-registrations in Florida are balanced but we need to have at least D+3 to have a credible story. We also need to greatly oversample women. This shouldn’t be hard to manage as they are more likely to answer the phone and chat. Liberal self-reporters are tanking (around 12% in real numbers). We are going to have it at around 30% which we can probably get away with. Below are the target demographics our screens should produce with minimal manual intervention.

......SEE SCRIBD for the remainder of this memo
SEVERAL FReepers should save this memo to your computer.

[Red Steel]

Well, that little snot Nate Silver shows up again.

[Red Steel]

Well, that little snot Nate Silver shows up again.

[FrdmLvr]

Bernie Sanders was here on U of M’s campus today speaking to a large and enthusiastic crowd of students. He was stumping for Hillary. It was on the local news. The scene was much different than the rallies Hillary attends. I couldn’t tell if the crowd at Michigan was cheering for Bernie or Hillary, but I could probably guess!

[conservativepoet]

Getting more interesting all the time.

[Future Useless Eater]

From the memo...

We must deliver on a turn-around in polls or risk collapse of enthusiasm.
The data from our call / email sieve as well as legitimate polling indicates a level of despondency equivalent, roughly, to the Michael Dukakis candidacy.
This is due to (a) Trump’s successful presidential-narrative surge and
(b) on the part of minority and millennial voters who are beginning to view Obama as a failed president and Hillary Clinton as a ‘lying harpy.’

It's TOO LATE... Note Cankle supporter's enthusiasm (especially the lines: Moderately, SLIGHTLY, and "NOT AT ALL" enthused) per the PPD tables...

[Chaguito]

Nate SLIVER? Now I know it’s fake.

The idiotic “black out” delays in loading, making Nate Sliver’s name visible for a fraction of a second, and of course disappears upon cut-and-paste.

Sliver’s name is misspelled in order to avoid a defamation lawsuit.

This is a plant to make Trump voters look stupid.