Analyzing Possible Outcomes of Trump

There are some things to like about Trump. But, it looks to me like these are the possible outcomes with this guy:

1. He is truly a conservative leader, i.e. will appoint truly conservative judges, will stand against abortion and Planned Parenthood, against gay marriage (and for religious liberty), against any form of federally mandated healthcare, will balance the budget, and will defend the Constitution in total--and he will be elected President.

2. He is truly a conservative, but will lose to Hillary--primarily because his negatives are so SKY HIGH that millions will absolutely NEVER vote for Trump, including an estimated 25-35 million evangelicals. (No wonder. He uses angry ad hominem attacks by calling his opponents liar, bimbo, low energy, dumb, etc. Have you EVER seen a bigger jerk?)

3. He is a lying SOB and is not a conservative at all. Remember, he said he knows how to “play conservatives.” But, he beats Hillary.

5. He does not get the nomination--and then bolts the Republican Party for a third party, which throws the election to the Dems.

Only one in five is a desirable outcome. REALLY BAD ODDS. I think his supporters have been blinded by anger, not unlike Obama supporters were blinded by his skin color.

Of course, there are some things we KNOW for sure about Trump. He is not a Christian, as he has said he has never asked forgiveness from God. We know he is an adulterer, probably a serial adulterer. (If he cannot be trusted to be true to his spouses, can we trust him to be true to his campaign promises?) We know he has no plan for anything—not to balance the budget, to get Mexico to pay for the wall, or any of his promises. And we know he is an outright liar, as these videos reveal:

http://therightscoop.com/busted-ted-cruz-exposes-donald-trumps-universal-health-care-lie-in-new-post-debate-video

I'm favoring:
A) He'll lose to Bernie. Just write the obituary and bury the dang country at that point.
B) He'll waffle on everything. Possible get his trade agreements of some sort muscled through. Get blamed for Obama’s ruining the economy and usher in a massive wave of Democrats into the House and Senate. Spending will double again and he'll appoint 3 liberal supreme court justices. Setting the stage for gun-control and single payer health care.

Either way its goodbye freedom. But I'm a cynical son of a gun.

If he wins the primary I'll vote for him. If I'm wrong and America becomes great again you can all line up to give me a swift kick in the rear and tell me “I told you so.”

Name calling aside, please tell me how Bush I, Clinton, Bush II or Obama did not disappoint you?

These end of days predictions if Trump wins the White House are just silly.

Trump isn’t basing his campaign on being an ideological conservative, Cruz is trying to and failing miserably, Rubio is trying to and failing miserably.... why?

Its simple, the problem we are dealing with is liberal or conservative makes no damned difference, its small ball nonsense to distract the masses. Both parties take money from people who just want to sell this nation and her people out, doesn’t matter which one wins, the march to selling out America continues.

Since neither party can be believed to PUT AMERICA FIRST, you have someone like Trump and to a lesser extent on the left Sanders getting attention. Trying to argue conservative v liberal when we have a 30 year track record of them both selling this nation down the toilet so their funders can pad their pockets is a non starter. Until the political class remembers, WE THE PEOPLE, run this country, not them and their first priority should be the people and the nation, not the stalwarts that buy, then lib v conservative is small ball.

That’s where we are now, the small ball is only relevant if you believe both sides at their core put america first and then argue about the best way to do the best thing for America...and the reality is, neither party gives a damn about what is bets for America.. so arguing L v R at this stage is pointless small ball.

I have no delusions that Trump will be an ideological conservative.... but what did the last president who claimed to be a conservative do? Introduced the largest social program expansion in 50 years ... medicare part d anyone? Blew Trillions of dollars and thousands of lives to overthrow a legitimately bad person, only to completely mishandle how to deal with the vaccuum it left, and lets not forget gave us John Roberts, who single handedly decided the federal government had the ability to tax you for simply existing! And the “Conservative” before that? Raised taxes during a Recession.. among other things.

Trump has promised to Put America First, that’s really the core of his message. How will his administration do? WHo knows... could be a disaster, could be great, but the reality is, when the folks who have given us Bush, Clinton, Bush and Obama and wanted to give us another Bush or Clinton are out there warning that Trump will be a disaster??? Well they don’t have a leg to stand on, because they have about a 30 year history of abject disasters.

All you need to know is, Trump’s message is so simple, that it should be child’s play to co opt, yet not only has no other Republican tried to co opted it, none of them will, because at the end of the day they are owned by the same damned stalwart moneymen that have run this nation into the ground to pad their own pockets. That speaks volumes about the republican party when not one of their “mainstream” candidates can simply run an “America First” campaign.

Until the parties are going to put AMERICA FIRST period, the lib v conservative argument is bread and circuses, as proved by nearly 30 years of betrayal of this nation by both parties.

Trump is not truly conservative so that's off the table right off the bat. I would not go so far as to say he's not conservative at all, so that removes two more choices. And at this point and at the rate he's going I don't see how he can legally be denied the nomination, so that kills your fifth choice as well.

I think Trump is basically a moderate with some small conservative leanings. I think he is a man without a clue as to how he will accomplish all that he's promised, so predicting how he would perform in office is impossible. Whether he wins in the fall depends on whether he can attract enough Democrats and independents to vote for him to offset the mainstream Republicans and independents he drives into Hillary's camp.

As a Cruz supporter, I would love to see all the Trump voters flee to Ted Cruz. However, the same reasoning can be used against Ted Cruz:

1. Cruz is truly the conservative leader that his speeches and voting record show him to be, as documented in every rating of US Senators by their conservatism, i.e. will appoint truly conservative judges, will stand against abortion and Planned Parenthood, against gay marriage (and for religious liberty), against any form of federally mandated healthcare, will balance the budget, and will defend the Constitution in total—and he will be elected President.

2. Cruz is truly a conservative, but will lose to Hillary—primarily because his negatives are so SKY HIGH that millions will absolutely NEVER vote for Cruz, because he is considered divisive, he is considered too conservative, he has shut down the federal government, he has opposed the GOP leadership, and he has attacked Trump (who has many supporters who took offense at those attacks).

3. Cruz is a lying SOB and is not a conservative at all. Basically, he is Rubio but hid his true colors for longer because he knows how to “play conservative” and is a better actor than Rubio. But, he beats Hillary.

4. Cruz is a lying SOB and is not a conservative at all—and LOSES to Hillary.

5. Cruz does not get the nomination—and then bolts the Republican Party for a third party, the Conservative Party or the Libertarian Party, which throws the election to the Dems.

Only one in five is a desirable outcome. REALLY BAD ODDS, just like with Trump.

While there are five options, not all are equally likely. With Cruz, I’d say the first two are close to 99% likely between them (with #2 less likely than #1 if he gets the nomination), and the last three are very remote possibilities.

Similarly, with Trump, I am worried about his sincerity, where the last three options are a bigger risk than with Cruz. How much bigger a risk is a tough question. His voters have presumably considered that risk too, but they have decided that options 3-5 for Trump are not large enough risks to change their votes. Or they have decided that at this moment we need someone who will overturn the tables of the money changers and clean out the Temple more than we need a more sedate leader.

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