Posted on 12/20/2012 6:54:58 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
This has not been the best week for New York Jets quarterback Tim Tebow.
First, on Wednesday, Jets Coach Rex Ryan says Greg McElroy will replace Mark Sanchez as the Jets' starter, leaving Tebow on the bench.
Then, on Thursday, US Weekly reports that Tebow has broken up with actress Camilla Belle after two months of dating.
Belle is famous for starring in "From Prada to Nada" and "Dirty Dancing 3." And when I say famous, I mean "been in movies no one has ever heard of or watched."
US Weekly says the breakup came because "the relationship just didn't work out."
Much like his relationship with the Jets.
(Excerpt) Read more at latimes.com ...
So have I. I've also watched wide open mid-range targets be hit in the numbers by his balls only to drop them. I don't know which I saw more, or which is more crushing but they both hurt.
And really his interceptions ARE sky high. That 6 interceptions was on 271 total attempts
I disagree with you because 6/271 = 2.2 percent of his pass attempts resulted in an interception whereas Peyton Manning has a career average of 2.7 percent pass attempts resulting in an interception. Tony Romo is picked off 2.9 percent of the time.
and countered with only 126 total completions, that is a number that is frankly pathetic.
His low number of total completions is a problem but not one that I see as insurmountable. He's a southpaw. The ball spins differently from what receivers are used to. He'll want to throw left which is the opposite of the way most offensive lines are designed for where the left tackle and guard protect the QB's blindside. Furthermore, when passblockingfor Tebow, the OL also has to runblock. Forming a perfect horseshoe pocket maynot be best for a running QB. The OL needs to pass protect while at the same time creating run gaps. The denver OL never really did anyof that very well from what I remember seeing.
A big part of his problem is his throwing motions are inconsistent. He’s a knuckleballer, which works great for a pitcher because it’s hard to hit balls that nobody knows where they’re going, doesn’t work so well in the NFL though because it’s really hard to catch balls nobody knows where they’re going.
Accuracy will always suffer when passing while running. Beyond that, I would have to review tapes to comment on his accuracy when throwing from the pocket, throwing when running left and throwing when running right.
Any QB whose passing is dependent on his own running isn’t a good QB, he’s a running lining up in the wrong spot.
That's the general criticism leveled at any of the throwing tailbacks that have been filling in at QB for the past 20 years.
You notice how many teams Testaverde was on? And how many of them were awful? Bad teams make bad decisions and pick up bad QBs.
Agreed but my point in bringing up Testaverde was that as long as Tebow stays healthy, he should find some team that can use him no matter how much his detractors want him out of the league.
Actually the primary thing that has changed for the Broncos is Manning is back up to speed. Those first 5 games he wasn’t on page with his receivers, he was holding onto the ball a lot longer than he usually does, and throwing late and getting intercepted. Then he got on page, he’s back to his 1.8, and his throws are on time and accurate. When Manning is on his clock offensive line play doesn’t matter, because he just doesn’t have the ball long enough to get sacked.
From what you said, Manning had the entire preseason and first 5 games of regular season and couldn't get in synch with his receivers. No one places Tebow in the same level as a Manning so, might we cut Tebow a little slack in this regard? Had Tebow stayed with Denver, might he and his receivers have gotten in better synch? Might his OL develop better techniques for protecting a run-first southpaw? We can speculate but we will never know.
Which boils back down to the problem with Tebow. He’s an excellent athlete, which works great in the college game that’s much much slower. In the NFL a QB needs to be smart. The way NFL QBs get rid of the ball in 2.4 seconds is they know where they’re going to throw it before the snap. They’ve read the defense, they know what adjustments their receivers will make to their routes, they know who will be open when. After the snap is merely execution of what they figured out in their brain, dropping back the correct number of steps and throwing to the spot they decided on. Must NFL throws are made when the receiver is still covered, they GET open while the ball flies. Tebow is a college QB, he only throws to guys that are already open, too late and too slow for the NFL. If he can’t learn to read defenses pre-snap, if he can’t get consistency in his throwing, he’s never gonna make the jump.
I do have to say I've noticed that Tebow has "happy feet" when in the pocket. Why that is I could only speculate. Is it something he can grow out of? We'll never know if he doesn't get the chance.
Had he remained at Denver, we'd know by now if he was developing or not. If the Jets trade/cut him, we won't know if these issues can be overcome for another year, or two.
See this is where the Tebow worshipers need to grow up. I like Tebow, I’ve said so multiple times, in this thread. But just because I like him doesn’t make him a good QB. And that’s not just an opinion, it’s a fact. There’s a link to his stats in this thread, click it, read it, understand it. The stats are there, and the tale they tell is clear. And it’s sad that somebody that nice is so very bad at the job he wants. But he’d be better served listening to people like me than people blowing smoke up his but. Without a dramatic change in his style of play he will not produce, he’ll be the white version of Kordell Stewart, a guy that would have had a longer better more lucrative career if he’d been willing to accept that he just plain was not NFL QB material.
Part of the problem with Tebow’s numbers is how low everything is. 271 attempts in 11 games. That’s not an NFL QB stat. And then 54% of them are either not caught or caught by the wrong guy. That’s just bad.
Southpaw has nothing to do with it. Plenty of left handed QBs have plenty of success. He has a 46% completion rate because he can’t read defenses, he throws the ball late, and his throwing motion results in unpredictable and inacurate flight. Ie - he’s not a good QB.
If it was his line and his receivers Orton wouldn’t have had such dramatically better stats.
The only reason Tebow is running is because he didn’t read the defense pre-snap and he didn’t throw the ball on time. 2.4 seconds. That’s what an NFL QB should be doing.
Let’s compare his stats to another scrambler who runs the option, Robert Griffin III:
http://www.nfl.com/player/robertgriffiniii/2533033/gamelogs
RGIII has a completion percentage of 66.4 on 351 attempts, he’s thrown 18 TDs, 4 INTs, a QB rating of 104.2, 11 fumbles, 2 lost. Notice in every part of the game his stats are better, and he runs the exact same style of offense, on a worse team.
And he’s not the only one, another scrambling option oriented QB Russel Wilson:
http://www.nfl.com/player/russellwilson/2532975/profile
353 attempts, 66.2 completion percentage, 21 TDs, 9 INTs, 5 fumbles, 3 lost. He’s got a few more INTs but is still markedly better in all the other stats.
These guys have all the same excuses you’re making for Tebow, except their stats aren’t a nightmare.
There’s one major difference between Testaverde and Tebow: this discussion. Vinnie didn’t have a big crowd of worshipers making life for his coaches bad every time he was on the bench. Because Tebow has all these followers that ignore his atrocious stats he be played even though he stinks he’s an instant quarterback controversy. That has a good chance of getting him out of the league. There are teams out there that will take a chance on a so-so player, hoping to improve him, or at least surround him with enough talent. There aren’t as many willing to take that chance on a player that’s going to get the fans all riled up and aggressive, they’ve got enough headaches.
I know exactly why he has happy feet: he doesn’t know where the open man is and he wants to run. It’s another sign of him not having the knowledge he needs to do the job he wants.
We know whether he’s been developing. He hasn’t. If he had he’d be the starter for the Jets.
If Tebow gets released it could be one of the best things to happen to him......
It's basically a Michael Vick stat... another southpaw. http://www.nfl.com/player/michaelvick/2504531/careerstats
Southpaw has nothing to do with it. Plenty of left handed QBs have plenty of success.
I don't believe that is an accurate statement. Very few lefty quarterbacks have made it in the NFL. Apparently, in the entire history of the NFL, there have only been 40 left handed QBs http://greatsportsnamehalloffame.blogspot.com/2009/07/there-have-been-only-32-left-handed.html and only one of them, Steve Young had a pass completion percentage above 60%. http://www.rci.rutgers.edu/~maxymuk/home/passing/qblh.html Steve Young is also the only left handed QB to be inducted into the Pro Hall of Fame. http://www.profootballhof.com/hof/release.aspx?release_id=1413.
There’s one major difference between Testaverde and Tebow: this discussion. Vinnie didn’t have a big crowd of worshipers making life for his coaches bad every time he was on the bench. Because Tebow has all these followers that ignore his atrocious stats he be played even though he stinks he’s an instant quarterback controversy.
Ultimately, they are all entertainers and are compensated based on their entertainment value. If for whatever reason they can fill seats and sell licensed goods, teams will find a spot for them. Whatever Denver paid Tebow was more than recovered in sold out stadiums and sales of licensed goods. Tebow was a good investment for the Broncos. Has that happened with the Jets? I tend to doubt it. Might it happen with the Jaguars? Yes, at least for one season.
I know exactly why he has happy feet: he doesn’t know where the open man is and he wants to run.
That's because his whole style is run-first like Vick. I think it unrealistic to try and turn him into a Steve Young.
We know whether he’s been developing. He hasn’t. If he had he’d be the starter for the Jets.
That's an assumption but I don't think it safe to call it a fact. What I've heard is Jets management/coaches believed by having Tebow, opponents would be forced to spend practice resources preparing for the wildcat. Such strategy could only work if the Jets expended little of their own resources with wildcat preparation. That basically meant Tebow would be practicing with 3rd stringers. The strategy may have had some merit early in the season as opponents did put n extra effort preparing for a range of wildcat plays but they soon realized it made no sense preparing for scenarios the Jets starters weren't practicing for.
And Michael Vick has had 1 season where he was actually a good QB, the rest of the time he’s been an exciting runner that throws inaccurately sometimes. And Vick’s shortcomings as a QB are about to get the league’s longest tenured coach fired.
Lefties are a minority of people. But there are still plenty of left handed QBs that are good. Ken Stabler, Jim Zorn, you can be good and not get in the HOF.
They’re entertainers, but QB controversies are NOT entertaining, and they cost coaches their jobs. Tebow was a TERRIBLE investment for the Broncos. There’s a reason why the coachthat picked him got fired. He created an instant QB controversy, and in game he stank, they traded 3 other picks to get a guy in the first round everybody though would stay on the board until the 3rd round. Had the defense not gotten it together they’d have lost. Had the defense gotten it together earlier Orton would have kept his job. Had there not been the crowds demanding Tebow Orton would have kept his job until the defense got it together. They over reached and over paid for him. When you trade away 3 picks to get somebody in the first round and they’re only on your team for 2 years that’s a BAD pick.
And a QB whose style is run first is a runningback that throws. He is NOT a good QB. QBs are paid to THROW the ball first, second and third. And accurately. Tebow does none of the above.
There’s no assumption in it at all. The starting QB of the Jets stinks. They know that, they’ve known it for a while. Stinks enough they traded for Tebow last year AND drafted somebody the year before. This is a starting QB job that’s up for grabs. Tebow is there, in practice, and yet they just passed him over to have a 7th round draft pick start. They’re paying Tebow 11 million dollars (remember this is a hard cap league, 11 million matters), and they’ve let him throw 8 passes all year. He hasn’t progressed. They brought in the wildcat coach to be offensive coordinator, and they largely don’t run it. The Niners ran it AGAINST them, and won 34-0.
Why weren’t they practicing the wildcat? They had the wildcat coach and a wildcat QB and yet they didn’t practice it. It’s simply not plausible that they put that many resources into having a wildcat offense and then just never found the time to practice it. What’s plausible is they DID practice it, and didn’t like the results, that being Tebow continuing to only complete 46% of his passes. So they dumped it. And now they’re dumping him, because he didn’t progress.
No it’s not my opinion. It’s reality. He couldn’t even take Mark Sanchez’s job. That shows he is clearly not NFL QB material.
He had 11 games as a starter, 46.% completion percentage. And now he’s on a team with one of the worst QBs in the league, and they still don’t want to put him in.
I’m not saying he can’t. I’ve said, repeatedly, that he needs to LEARN a lot because currently he ISN’T.
Funny the guy who can’t even understand what I’ve said, who credits me with saying the EXACT OPPOSITE of what I said saying I should give it a rest. Give it a rest yourself. You’ve got nothing but opinion, and lies. I’m showing facts. facts you find inconvenient. Which is sad for you. But not my problem.
I have no dispute with what you wrote but for some reason, the only lefty NFL QB to have a completion percentage greater than 60% was Steve Young.
Lefties are a minority of people. But there are still plenty of left handed QBs that are good. Ken Stabler, Jim Zorn, you can be good and not get in the HOF.
Lefties are about ten percent of the population. There are 30 QBs in the Hall of Fame. Only one of them, Steve Young is a leftie.
As I mentioned previously, in the NFLs history, there have only been something like 40 lefty QBs. Presently, there are 32 NFL teams, each with a #1, #2and #3 QB. Thats, 96 QBs. statistically, there should be 8-10 lefty QBs in the league but as best I can tell, there are only 3.
Tebow was a TERRIBLE investment for the Broncos.
In terms of long term term team development, I would agree that he was a mistake. However, the Broncos needed a QB and what other QBs were available in that draft that amounted to anything in the NFL? Sam Bradford went #1 overall but who else was there? I could have told the Panthers that Jimmy Clausen was going to be a second round bust and to stay away from him. The next QB selected was Colt McCoy in the 3rd round and he's done nothing. Mike Kafka went in the 4th round and he's presently an unsigned free agent.
A team needing a QB in the 2010 draft had slim pickings. Despite the Notre Dame PR machine hyping Clausen which suckered the Panthers, it was Bradford and Tebow. The Broncos took a gamble on Tebow that while shakey ultimately worked out by virtue of Manning unexpectedly becoming available.
People may not see Tebow as a good investment by the Broncos from a long term team standpoint but the bean counters at Broncos HQ can quantify his selling out every stadium he played in, increased television revenue as a result of selling out, increased license sales, etc and call him a good investment.
I don’t see how the lefty thing matters. He’s accurate, or he’s not, he isn’t. Left handed, right handed, doesn’t matter, he doesn’t read defenses pre-snap, he doesn’t throw before the man is open, and he misses his guys by multiple yards. His team has only trusted him to throw 8 times this season, doesn’t matter which hand he’s NOT throwing with.
Yeah the 2010 draft class didn’t have much in the way of great QBs. But that’s no reason to trade away 3 picks to get a second 1st round pick to take a guy projected to go in the 3rd round. They could have waited until their own round 2 pick (part of what they traded away) and gotten him then. Then they wouldn’t have gotten stuck paying him so much. Or if they REALLY thought he was all that they could have just picked him with their own 1st round pick at 22 instead of trading away half their draft to get him at 25. No matter how you slice it that was a mismanaged draft. And meanwhile they had Orton, who was statistically better.
The bean counters will tell you the Broncos always sell out. So he didn’t do anything for them there either. And TV revenue comes from the NFL’s national contracts, doesn’t matter who’s on the field for that. Licensing sales probably helped. But probably not the 11 million a year they paid him because they pick up a 3rd round pick in the 1st.
So the Mort Report on the pre-game show said something about the Jags having basically open try outs for QB next year and Tebow will be in the mix. I wasn’t paying much attention cause the wife just got home so I missed the details (like how Tebow will leave the Jets, and why the Jags would be willing to take on an $11 million contract for a guy that’ll still have to try out), but that’s the core of it.
At first glance I agree but statistically speaking lefty QBs don't seem to have the success in the NFL as right handed QBs. Some writers mention differences in ball trajectory when spinning clockwise versus counter-clockwise.
The trajectory of a left pitcher is certainly significant in baseball but for football receivers who instinctively expect a ball to behave according to the trajectory of a right handed thrower, adjustments will also be needed. Similarly, once the spinning ball contacts their hands, what I've read is that instinct has them pull it in in such a way that the counter-clockwise spin of a leftie can cause the ball to pop out. A pro level receiver should be able to make adjustments but it does appear from what I've read on the topic that they do have to make some adjustments for a leftie.
Receivers used to timing their route based on what they see of the QB's profile also have to adjust. An offensive line definitely has to adjust for a lefty QB whose blindside will be to the right. A formerly left tackle just can't be switched to right tackle because the QB is a leftie.
He’s accurate, or he’s not, he isn’t. Left handed, right handed, doesn’t matter
It's fun debating but something about lefty QBs causes them to be less represented in the NFL.
His team has only trusted him to throw 8 times this season, doesn’t matter which hand he’s NOT throwing with.
And one of those 8 throws was to a wide open receiver on a mid-route that hit him on the numbers and he dropped it.
No matter how you slice it that was a mismanaged draft.
At the time, I thought Tebow went too high and I based that on his poor senior bowl performance. He showed in the senior bowl that he could not go into any team, fit right in and lead them. A lot of credit goes to Urban Myer for designing an offense around Tebow. An offense that still prepared many players surrounding Tebow for success in the NFL.
And meanwhile they had Orton, who was statistically better.
In the immortal words of Al Davis, "Just win, baby". Orton while having better numbers didn't win.
The bean counters will tell you the Broncos always sell out. So he didn’t do anything for them there either.
Not entirely correct. I was thinking of some of the away games that sold out which otherwise would not have. it also appears that Bronco stadium concessions skyrocketed due to ticket holders who otherwise would not have shown up but did because of Tebow, or gave/sold their ticket to someone who showed up because of Tebow. Just the increased stadium concessions in 2011 appear to have covered most if not all of Tebow's salary for that season.
The Broncos are pocketing an extra few million dollars this season in concession and other spending thanks in large part to game-day no-shows shrinking from several thousand before the team's magical run to a few hundred during it, according to estimates.
And TV revenue comes from the NFL’s national contracts, doesn’t matter who’s on the field for that.
Because Bronco ratings soared, ad revenue to the league also increased, especially for the late game ad slots. Additionally, I may be mistaken but I thought there was something about there being less television revenue for games blacked out in local areas.
Licensing sales probably helped. But probably not the 11 million a year they paid him because they pick up a 3rd round pick in the 1st.
I don't believe they paid him $11 million per year. Maybe $11 million total including guarantees picked up by the Jets. If they paid him $11 million per year I would be more in agreement with you.
I think his base pay for 2010 and 2011 was in the $1-$2 million range. Compare that with his estimated $10-$20 million in license sales and he's looking like a pretty darn good investment.
Fan interest in Tebow may have generated $10 million to $20 million more in merchandise sales for the NFL, said Marc Ganis, president of Chicago-based sports consulting firm SportsCorp.The Broncos, though, can reel in additional revenue through retail outlets, and the team operates two stores with third-party vendors.
A home playoff game could land the team a low-six-figure sponsorship deal tied to in-stadium giveaways.
Could be a good tight end too I would think?
If a team was to do that, they would need a similar style #2 and #3 QB. For that reason, I think most teams will be reluctant to accommodate Tebow's style and will instead try to force Tebow into their mold of player.
But again with his demonstrated complete lack of ability to read a defense pre-snap his trajectory doesn’t matter. He’s simply not good enough at the game for his handedness to be an issue. If anything it’s just another reason why he should stop trying to be a QB.
One of 8 passes being dropped doesn’t matter. The news is 8 passes. Even if they were all completions it’s still only 8 passes. If he was any good they’d be having him throw more.
But Orton’s lack of winning wasn’t on him. Again, the Denver defense shaved 15 points off their points allowed after Tebow started. If the Denver defense is playing that well in the beginning Orton goes 4-1. It’s easy to win football games when your defense is only allowing 13. It’s hard when they give up 29.
Away games don’t matter for revenue. The 20% of the non-luxury box gate that doesn’t go to the home team is pooled and split among the teams at the end of the year. Anything Tebow added to away game revenue got divided by 32, Denver probably didn’t make enough “extra” from Tebow to fuel up the plane for 1 trip home.
“Extra few million” minus an 11 million dollar salary equals at best zero. Had they waited until the second round they could have paid him half as much and still gotten whatever benefit he added to the take.
Broncos ratings don’t matter. The league makes 3.08 billion dollars a year on the TV contracts (which then gets divvyed up among the teams, in general the team portion is enough to pay the salary cap). Those contracts were span 2006 through 2013, they’ve already been renewed and in 2014 the league starts making 4.95 billion. Couple extra ratings points here or there for a Tebow game isn’t changing the revenue picture of the league or the team.
Understand an NFL team is a billion dollar enterprise. $10 million here or there isn’t changing anything. Especially not for a team like the Broncos. They’re one of the most popular teams in the league. Drafting Tebow was a mistake, he’s not a good player, he got the coach fired, and any monetary benefit is couch change for an NFL tea.
Probably so, but I know where ever they put him, he will give 100% every play.
The guy is a physical specimen, and tremendously “football smart” and motivated.
What I don’t know is his willingness to accept a position change.
In the “old days” you would see a good number of college quarterbacks wind up as defensive backs in the NFL - Tony Dungy as an example. Tebow might make a fantastic linebacker.
Tebow's base salary at Denver:
2010: $1.295 million (fully guaranteed)2011: $1.618.75 million (fully guaranteed)
2012: $1.942.5 million (fully guaranteed)
2013: $2.266.75 million (fully guaranteed)
2014: $2.590.5 million ($567,500 guaranteed)
Advance/Signing bonus
$975,000 on Friday (salary reduced to $325,000)
$6.275 million due 29 days after start of 2011 league year.
As Jet, Tebow makes:
2012:Base Salary – $1.1 million
Roster Bonus- $472,000
Advance Repayment – $1.5 million
Cap Hit – $3.072 million2013:
Base Salary – $1.055 million
Advance Repayment – $1.03 million
Cap Hit – $2.085 million2014:
Base Salary – $895,000
Cap Hit – $895,000
http://www.jetnation.com/2012/03/25/tim-tebows-contract-details/
Which still doesn’t make him a good QB.
What!! He got the coach Fired? Not a good player? He threw for 316 yards in a playoff game. Give him a year running the show and let it play out. If he fails after being giving the chance then I agree he needs to move on. Looks like Jacksonville will be the place.
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