Posted on 12/20/2012 6:54:58 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
This has not been the best week for New York Jets quarterback Tim Tebow.
First, on Wednesday, Jets Coach Rex Ryan says Greg McElroy will replace Mark Sanchez as the Jets' starter, leaving Tebow on the bench.
Then, on Thursday, US Weekly reports that Tebow has broken up with actress Camilla Belle after two months of dating.
Belle is famous for starring in "From Prada to Nada" and "Dirty Dancing 3." And when I say famous, I mean "been in movies no one has ever heard of or watched."
US Weekly says the breakup came because "the relationship just didn't work out."
Much like his relationship with the Jets.
(Excerpt) Read more at latimes.com ...
In his case, he's always one hit away from being a fullback. However, because he doesn't look like a Manning, or Brady when passing isn't reason to give up on him at QB.
Vinny Testaverde was an interception machine yet spent 21 years in the NFL. Unlike Testaverde who usually threw more picks than TDs, Tebow's 12 TD to 6 INT ratio at Denver last season is good and suggests that his pass completion percentages can be improved.
Great points. The one thing about Tebow I don’t see enough people talking about is that he is a natural leader and teammates want to follow him. THAT alone is enough for him to be named a starter on an NFL team.
Do you happen to recall his completion percentage or his QB rating?
Rex Ryan should be benched.
Thanks to picking up Tebow and the contract extension they gave Sanchez they’ve got 30 million dollars of a hard cap tied up in 2 bad QBs. And his presence rattled Sanchez’s already weak confidence, and their attempts to work Tebow in regular shatter his rhythm (look at Monday, Sanchez gets back to back completions for the first time all game, they put in Tebow for a play, which fails but does get an offsides, Sanchez goes back in: incomplete, incomplete, sack).
Don’t want to blame Tebow in a mean way, it’s not like he’s Chad Henne or something, but the fact is they were a better team without than with him, and the whole push to get him was a big mistake.
I think it’s self-evident that it was a mistake, given their record, but to me, the mistake was getting him without the intention of really using him. If he could lead the Broncos from a disaster season to the playoffs, there has to be at least one team in the league that would be willing to give him a legitimate shot, from training camp on.
His rating last season at Denver was about 73 percent. His completion rate was 46 percent. Here are Tebow's stats:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/nfl/players/24000/index.html
I agree with you that his completion percentage last season at Denver was not good. Someof the blame is his but there were a remarkable number of dropped passes and so many of the drops seemed to be on the receivers numbers 20-30 yards downfield that could have been real momentum boosters. Then there were the high number of QB hurries and sacks allowed by the Broncos' OL. Not only were the hurries and sacks high, they also happened quickly, often in 2 seconds, or less.
This season in Denver, Manning was also hurried in preseason and through the first 5 regular season games.
Sacked on average 3 times per first 5 regular season games, the Manning led Broncos went 2-3. With substantially all else being equal, the Manning led Broncos performed worse than the Tebow led Broncos of the previous season. Not until adjustments were made to the offensive line and possibly other offensive positions did the Broncos begin winning this season.
Going back to Tebow as a Bronco in 2011, as I pointed out in one of my posts, it wasn't as if Tebow was throwing wildly. When he missed (ignoring drops), it was usually because he was leading too far ahead of his receivers, or throwing at their feet which to me indicated that as he gained experience, he could bring the balls in closer to the receivers.
A lot of that success in Denver was the defense shaving 15 points off their average allowed. He’s really not a good QB. His throwing motion is slow, his throws are inaccurate, he can’t read defenses. He runs well and he’s a hard gamer, should be an RB with the occasional gadget play. Somebody might still give him a shot, there’s plenty of teams with even worse QBs, but don’t expect much.
So its Tebow’s fault Sanchez didn’t have the stones to man up and prove his worth? Please. Tebow did everything he was asked to do, including gain 15 lbs. This is all on Ryan and the Jets FO. They were a train wreck long before Tebow got there.
That’s not what I said. Go back and actually READ it.
How ya figure?
Correct.
his throws are inaccurate, he can’t read defenses.
Inability to read defenses and slow, inaccurate throwing might manifest itself in a high number of interceptions but that wasn't the case for Tebow in Denver.
Another factor that has to be considered is the number of times when in the pocket he was hurried, hit, or sacked and how quickly the defenders were able to put pressure on him. It wasn't as if after standing in the pocket for 5 seconds he'd be sacked. In some games defenders were getting to Tebow in under 2 seconds.
When you miss your target by at least 5 yards you don’t get a lot of interceptions, because the cover guy is near the receiver, which is nowhere near the ball.
The stats you link to show the problem. Completion percentage of 46, in general if a QB is under 60% the coach is thinking about benching him. QB rating of 73, remember the QB rating system is NOT a percentage, it’s an annoying piece of math is a max of 158.3, in general a QB sitting under 100 is again looking at the bench. He started 11 games and threw 12 TDs, that’s just barely hitting 1 a game, and also through 6 INTs, giving him a 2::1 ratio which kind of stinks, and he had 13 fumbles, 6 of which were lost.
From snap to throw the average QB is 2.4 seconds. Top shelf QBs like Peyton average 1.8 seconds. The fact that he “only” had 2 seconds shouldn’t have been a problem. Not if he was actually an NFL caliber QB, reading the defense before the play, knowing where he was going to throw the ball before the snap, able to do a 3 step drop and deliver an accurate on time ball.
He’s a nice guy. But he doesn’t have the skills of an NFL QB. A lot of great college players are terrible in the NFL, it’s a different game, a LOT faster, a lot more about mental prowess, and a lot less about physical prowess. He had an improbably run last year where he managed to get 5 wins with 10 or fewer completed passes in each. But his style of play doesn’t fly for the long haul, eventually your opponents figure it out. He needs to either really get his fundamentals down in the off season, or make the switch to RB with trick plays.
I agree with you. He does throw like a fullback.
If over time, a QB intentionally misses by 5 yards, I would agree with your statement because the QB is deliberately throwing the ball where it cannot be caught/intercepted. However, if a QB's passing has such a probability of error that his short-medium throws are within 2 yards of where he aims, I would expect his interceptions to be sky high.
The stats you link to show the problem. Completion percentage of 46, in general if a QB is under 60% the coach is thinking about benching him.
Yes but when you factor the number of drops by his receivers, his passing completion in 2011 may have gone up over 50%. At UF, he pretty much demolished every SEC team and record yet did so with a passing completion rate of about 65%. Yeah that was college but it was the SEC, not CUSA. Tebow's passing is dependent on his ability to consistently pick up 1st downs running. From what I saw of Tebow in 2011, he never could get the run going to begin establishing the pass. That his receivers so often dropped mid-deep passes hitting them on the numbers was crushing.
Why the holes don't seem to materialize for Tebow to rush through that say a Cam Newton gets is a topic in and of itself.
QB rating of 73, remember the QB rating system is NOT a percentage, it’s an annoying piece of math is a max of 158.3, in general a QB sitting under 100 is again looking at the bench. He started 11 games and threw 12 TDs, that’s just barely hitting 1 a game, and also through 6 INTs, giving him a 2::1 ratio which kind of stinks, and he had 13 fumbles, 6 of which were lost.
I understand but how did Testaverde manage 21 years in the NFL with essentially a 1:1 TD:INT ratio, 56% completion rate and 75% career rating? http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/9/vinny-testaverde
From snap to throw the average QB is 2.4 seconds.
I wasn't aware of that. Thanks.
Top shelf QBs like Peyton average 1.8 seconds.
Recall from some of my other posts on this thread about Peyton in the first 5 games this season when the Broncos went 2-3. The Denver OL let defenders sack Manning at the same rate they sacked Tebow the previous year. Then, some adjustments to the offense were made whereby Manning received much better protection and the Broncos then went on a tear.
The fact that he “only” had 2 seconds shouldn’t have been a problem. Not if he was actually an NFL caliber QB, reading the defense before the play, knowing where he was going to throw the ball before the snap, able to do a 3 step drop and deliver an accurate on time ball.
Again, Manning also had problems through game 5 of this season and was also sacked 3 times in each game. The Broncos made some sort of adjustments and then they went on a 4 or 5 game win streak where I seem to recall they only allowed one sack.
I’m not an NFL scout. Also, never played football after HS freshman year. BUT: Sanchez is the crappiest professional quarterback I have ever seen.
(However, I’ve only been watching pro. football for about 60 years. Who am I to judge?)
I’ve seen Tebow miss wide open midrange targets by over 5 yards. And really his interceptions ARE sky high. That 6 interceptions was on 271 total attempts and countered with only 126 total completions, that is a number that is frankly pathetic. A big part of his problem is his throwing motions are inconsistent. He’s a knuckleballer, which works great for a pitcher because it’s hard to hit balls that nobody knows where they’re going, doesn’t work so well in the NFL though because it’s really hard to catch balls nobody knows where they’re going.
There’s no factoring in. 46% completions is terrible. With that exact same receiving core Orton was at 59.5%... and got benched. Any QB whose passing is dependent on his own running isn’t a good QB, he’s a running lining up in the wrong spot.
You notice how many teams Testaverde was on? And how many of them were awful? Bad teams make bad decisions and pick up bad QBs.
Actually the primary thing that has changed for the Broncos is Manning is back up to speed. Those first 5 games he wasn’t on page with his receivers, he was holding onto the ball a lot longer than he usually does, and throwing late and getting intercepted. Then he got on page, he’s back to his 1.8, and his throws are on time and accurate. When Manning is on his clock offensive line play doesn’t matter, because he just doesn’t have the ball long enough to get sacked.
Which boils back down to the problem with Tebow. He’s an excellent athlete, which works great in the college game that’s much much slower. In the NFL a QB needs to be smart. The way NFL QBs get rid of the ball in 2.4 seconds is they know where they’re going to throw it before the snap. They’ve read the defense, they know what adjustments their receivers will make to their routes, they know who will be open when. After the snap is merely execution of what they figured out in their brain, dropping back the correct number of steps and throwing to the spot they decided on. Must NFL throws are made when the receiver is still covered, they GET open while the ball flies. Tebow is a college QB, he only throws to guys that are already open, too late and too slow for the NFL.
If he can’t learn to read defenses pre-snap, if he can’t get consistency in his throwing, he’s never gonna make the jump. Now he might still get to hang out in the league for a while, there’s always room at the bottom for mediocre cheap talent, but he’ll never be among the ranks of good QBs, he’ll never be on a good team, and eventually he’ll quietly go away like so many so-so QBs before.
Big and strong enough, (not a BA like Gronkowski but still oughta be able to block) not afraid to get hit, got some speed for a big white guy, smart enough to understand his assignments... can he catch?
Maybe even do a trick play with him now and then.
Don't see the sense in building an offense around him, which makes it all about TT and not the team.
Cute young lady, btw, but she have some serious eyebrows going there.
Thank you. I’ve heard other people say the same thing but not as well.
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