If over time, a QB intentionally misses by 5 yards, I would agree with your statement because the QB is deliberately throwing the ball where it cannot be caught/intercepted. However, if a QB's passing has such a probability of error that his short-medium throws are within 2 yards of where he aims, I would expect his interceptions to be sky high.
The stats you link to show the problem. Completion percentage of 46, in general if a QB is under 60% the coach is thinking about benching him.
Yes but when you factor the number of drops by his receivers, his passing completion in 2011 may have gone up over 50%. At UF, he pretty much demolished every SEC team and record yet did so with a passing completion rate of about 65%. Yeah that was college but it was the SEC, not CUSA. Tebow's passing is dependent on his ability to consistently pick up 1st downs running. From what I saw of Tebow in 2011, he never could get the run going to begin establishing the pass. That his receivers so often dropped mid-deep passes hitting them on the numbers was crushing.
Why the holes don't seem to materialize for Tebow to rush through that say a Cam Newton gets is a topic in and of itself.
QB rating of 73, remember the QB rating system is NOT a percentage, it’s an annoying piece of math is a max of 158.3, in general a QB sitting under 100 is again looking at the bench. He started 11 games and threw 12 TDs, that’s just barely hitting 1 a game, and also through 6 INTs, giving him a 2::1 ratio which kind of stinks, and he had 13 fumbles, 6 of which were lost.
I understand but how did Testaverde manage 21 years in the NFL with essentially a 1:1 TD:INT ratio, 56% completion rate and 75% career rating? http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/9/vinny-testaverde
From snap to throw the average QB is 2.4 seconds.
I wasn't aware of that. Thanks.
Top shelf QBs like Peyton average 1.8 seconds.
Recall from some of my other posts on this thread about Peyton in the first 5 games this season when the Broncos went 2-3. The Denver OL let defenders sack Manning at the same rate they sacked Tebow the previous year. Then, some adjustments to the offense were made whereby Manning received much better protection and the Broncos then went on a tear.
The fact that he “only” had 2 seconds shouldn’t have been a problem. Not if he was actually an NFL caliber QB, reading the defense before the play, knowing where he was going to throw the ball before the snap, able to do a 3 step drop and deliver an accurate on time ball.
Again, Manning also had problems through game 5 of this season and was also sacked 3 times in each game. The Broncos made some sort of adjustments and then they went on a 4 or 5 game win streak where I seem to recall they only allowed one sack.
I’ve seen Tebow miss wide open midrange targets by over 5 yards. And really his interceptions ARE sky high. That 6 interceptions was on 271 total attempts and countered with only 126 total completions, that is a number that is frankly pathetic. A big part of his problem is his throwing motions are inconsistent. He’s a knuckleballer, which works great for a pitcher because it’s hard to hit balls that nobody knows where they’re going, doesn’t work so well in the NFL though because it’s really hard to catch balls nobody knows where they’re going.
There’s no factoring in. 46% completions is terrible. With that exact same receiving core Orton was at 59.5%... and got benched. Any QB whose passing is dependent on his own running isn’t a good QB, he’s a running lining up in the wrong spot.
You notice how many teams Testaverde was on? And how many of them were awful? Bad teams make bad decisions and pick up bad QBs.
Actually the primary thing that has changed for the Broncos is Manning is back up to speed. Those first 5 games he wasn’t on page with his receivers, he was holding onto the ball a lot longer than he usually does, and throwing late and getting intercepted. Then he got on page, he’s back to his 1.8, and his throws are on time and accurate. When Manning is on his clock offensive line play doesn’t matter, because he just doesn’t have the ball long enough to get sacked.
Which boils back down to the problem with Tebow. He’s an excellent athlete, which works great in the college game that’s much much slower. In the NFL a QB needs to be smart. The way NFL QBs get rid of the ball in 2.4 seconds is they know where they’re going to throw it before the snap. They’ve read the defense, they know what adjustments their receivers will make to their routes, they know who will be open when. After the snap is merely execution of what they figured out in their brain, dropping back the correct number of steps and throwing to the spot they decided on. Must NFL throws are made when the receiver is still covered, they GET open while the ball flies. Tebow is a college QB, he only throws to guys that are already open, too late and too slow for the NFL.
If he can’t learn to read defenses pre-snap, if he can’t get consistency in his throwing, he’s never gonna make the jump. Now he might still get to hang out in the league for a while, there’s always room at the bottom for mediocre cheap talent, but he’ll never be among the ranks of good QBs, he’ll never be on a good team, and eventually he’ll quietly go away like so many so-so QBs before.