Posted on 07/29/2012 8:12:01 PM PDT by OneVike
For the life of me, I cannot explain to my wife why the stock market keeps doing so well. I keep telling her it should be tanking, but it keeps going strong. From everything I have ever understood, and firmly believe about economics, the stock market should be down to about 5000 or below, yet it isn't. I have heard many experts say that they are themselves baffled?
I could give all kinds of economic numbers from various key industries, along with numerous statistics pointing to the way Obama has indebted our grandchildren's grandchildren. I could also give economic information that shows almost every country in the world is an economic basket case from China to the European Union, yet the stock market keeps defying reality.
I keep wondering if Bernanke is pumping the stimulus money into the market to fool the masses that still think a great stock market equals a great economy. If that is the case, does anyone besides me expect the market to crash next year after Romney is sworn in?
Anyway, back to my vanity question.
WHY? WHY? WHY, is the stock market soaring when in reality is should be fighting to survive?
Oh yea.
Yes, even though I, and many like me, will not be voting for a president but still voting down ticket, I do believe Romney will win in a huge landslide.
Look back at 1980 when Reagan defeated Carter. Even with Anderson on a third party ticket taking 7% of the vote, Ronaldo Maximus still won in a landslide.
Now I do not expect anything close to 7% of the electorate not voting for either Romney or Obama. Besides, Obama makes the peanut farmer look like a friggen genius.
There is no market, only manipulation.
I’ve been wondering who has been proping up the market for the last several years. Everyone I know, myself included, either doesnt have a 401 anymore or is barely participating.
So, what is going on??
I am beginning to believe that.
Three letters....P-P-T.
Let’s just say that you have a point of view as to how the market should behave, and it is violating that prejudice or that supposition. You may believe that the market should reflect the economy; but “the economy” is one of those terms that means different things to different people. Is it employment? Corporate profits? Growth?
There are tremedous wads of cash lying around, much of it in bankster hands, and the government has effectively demonstrated to bankers and large hedge funds that as long as whatever theft or fraud is committed is of sufficient size, as long as good sized donations to the DNC are made, the prospect of prosecution is an utter joke. If the penalty for bank robbery was less than 10% of what was stolen, how many banks would be robbed?
Corporate profits are fairly impressive at present, and, many companies have refi’ed debt at generationally low rates and also shed employees. So large costs have gone out of corporate balance sheets.
Additionally, HFT trading controls the vast majority of trading on the NYSE and surely the NAS as well. These forces do not need the market to make large-scale secular sweeps in terms of trading ranges. They can make boatloads of money on these 100-200-300 DJ swings that don’t seem to do anything but cover territory already covered.
My belief is that there simply isn’t any other place to invest....not that there is a heck of a lot of investing going on...but the great thing about the market is that the opportunities for fraud are so juicy, yet almost entirely unprosecuted, while the liquidity of getting out of something before 0bama or Congress changes a law or does something (else) idiotic is also attractive. Eg; liquidity.
The point being, there is a behavior difference between how the market is behaving and your opinion. Guess what? The market is always right.
Isn’t the Fed propping up the stock market? That’s why it’s higher than it should be.
On aug 1st i pull 50% of my 401k as a loan. its the only option i have. i am of the same belief as you. something or someone is propping this up to the election.
I’m no expert, but I suspect a lot of people (from all over the planet) who used to have investments in Europe have decided that investing in US stocks is a little bit safer.
Because everyone thinks that the fed will bring on QE and devalue the dollar, causing the market to go up. If the jobs number sucks this week, they might be correct.
go to zero hedge.com
The market trades on future value, right? Maybe the market is expecting a big change that will somehow increase valuations. Let’s hope.
Here’s a thought- think about millions of people with 401ks whose money gets automatically pumped into the market each time they get paid. That would keep a market full of money even if it were tanking.
understand what you are saying, but the one thing that does not jive with your theory, is the volume of trading is not nearly what it should be if it were so.
Total volume is down from what I understand.
Why should it be tanking. You do not explain. There is an old adage: “The markets climb a wall of worry”. The more negative the sentiment the better it usually does. ‘Contrarians’ usually prosper. the mob usually loses. Keep in mind however that a few variables are helping corporate profits: layoffs and budget cutbacks have increased profit margins in many large enterprises; and the low dollar has greatly increased export sales. Also the consumer has been spending a lot more than in the past 3 years.
I heard that some Democrats are now passing around the idea of confiscating 401K’s.
Really you dont know? In part the government is printing money and buying bonds. Ever heard of expressions like QE1, or QE?
Wait for it...
It is money chasing money. It is just plain gambling, it has nothing to do with reality it is like a very complicated Monopoly game.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.