Posted on 12/27/2011 12:24:17 AM PST by Windflier
In the February 1952 issue of Galaxy magazine, Robert Heinlein offered his verdict on the conclusion of the twentieth century. He would later revisit these predictions in the 1966 short story collection The Worlds of Robert A. Heinlein and discuss the challenges of predicting the future. Here's what the author gathered, six decades ago:
So let's have a few free-swinging predictions about the future. Some will be wrong - but cautious predictions are sure to be wrong.
1. Interplanetary travel is waiting at your front door — C.O.D. It's yours when you pay for it.
2. Contraception and control of disease is revising relations between the sexes to an extent that will change our entire social and economic structure.
3. The most important military fact of this century is that there is no way to repel an attack from outer space.
Yeah, Number 11 sure sounds like it panned out.
He had several near-misses, I’d say.
I’d give him #2, for sure, too.
17 is pretty spot-on as well. Most of the rest, not so much.
Agreed. He predicted that there wouldn't be a world state, but that Communism would disappear from the face of the earth. Close, but no cigar.
On balence most of the predictions are so far off that he is a false prophet indeed.
"2. Contraception and control of disease is revising relations between the sexes to an extent that will change our entire social and economic structure."
Yep. Pretty darn accurate.
I wish 7 were true, but these days investors trump actual art lovers.
Number 8 is spot-on: a psychology writer recently commented that citations from Freud these days were rare to none.
The prediction about Communism is eerily prescient.
Number 19 pretty much panned out. At least for now. We're still here.
“False prophet”?
Little harsh, don’t you think? The man was simply making some predictions, based on what he understood of science and the culture at that time. He wasn’t trying to be a prophet.
So do I.
I've hated 'modern art' since I was a child. It's ugly and repulsive. Just what the Commies called for in their 1963 goals to take over America.
He has about the same accuracy as anyone predicting 50 years out.
He’d have really blown me away if he predicted the Cubs and Red Sox would still not have won a World Series since the early part of the century (true as of 2000).
LOL .. he wasn't trying to make psychic predictions.
I think he did alright for trying to plot what sort of technological developments and social changes we would probably see by the turn of the century.
He patted my hand. "Cheer up, Flicka. Always remember that, when things seem darkest, they usually get considerably worse. He took his phone out of his pocket and made a call. "This is Senator Fries. I want the Director... I just called to tell you that I'm coming by to stuff you into one of your own helium tanks. Oh, say about fourteen or a few minutes after. That should give you time to get out of town. Clearing." He pocketed his phone.
And, some things were too wild for him to imagine.... “computers that are now the size of a building will be reduced to fit in your pocket. Children will use them to play music and games.”
Or, “a Kenyan will be president of the United States”. Bet he didn’t see that one coming.
What's interesting about that passage, is that Heinlein doesn't call it anything but a 'phone', which is exactly how people refer to cell phones today.
A lot of other writers would have slapped some techno-sounding name on the device.
Easily the most dead-on prediction of the bunch.
Yeah, like "smartphone" or "cell phone" or "iPhone."
Regards,
When did he ever claim to be a prophet?
He was a writer. That was enough.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.