Electoral college math for Sarah Palin (she is very electable)

vanity ^

[se_ohio_young_conservative]

It is early. The only thing that stays the same is that everything changes with time. But there are a few things we can assume with high confidence, the economic situation will decide the 2012 election and the economy does not look to be recovering very fast..if at all. Then the question for Obama will be how can he get the toothpaste back into the tube in reguards to the unpopular health care bill and what will be a 14 trillion dollar national debt. How can he generate the same energy among younger voters that he did in 2008 unless there is a game changer ? Sarah Palin has to connect with people and having strong message. All she has to do is be an alternative.

The 2012 election will be won or lost in the Great Lakes region. In 2008 States such as OH, MI and PA are leaning Republican. New Republican governors are preparing to take office. Iowa is always a close state. Although Minnesota and Illinois are still leaning toward the Democrats, Wisconsin is turning in our favor. Indiana is coming back.

Elsewhere..

I believe Obama has serious problems in 3 southern states, Virginia, North Carolina and especially Florida where the healthcare bill is very unpopular.

In the Mountain west we are still looking strong in most states. Of course Colorado is always a true toss up. The trouble spots are Nevada and New Mexico. I still believe these states will be in play.

Sarah Palin could win with 274 electoral votes by carrying the Republican leaning Mid Atlantic states that Bush carried in 04 plus Ohio, Florida and Colorado. But then you factor in the rest of the Midwest. Throw in Michigan, Iowa, PA, Wisconsin. There would be an additional 52 electoral college votes in play. Then a secondary group of states such as Nevada, New Mexico and New Hampshire and there are 15 more.

The bottom line is.. there are 161 Obama 2008 electoral votes in play and atleast 100 of them are leaning in our direction. We don't have to run the table this time. There are several paths to victory.

[Minus_The_Bear]

"The electoral vote problem is one that most don’t even consider around here. Palin has very little to bring to the over all picture on that. That would leave Palin having to win more states. They also expect a candidate to win their home state. Miller, supported by Palin has lost to Lisa in a write in bid. Could Palin win Alaska anymore? Gore lost Tennesssee and the rest is history."

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You are using your brain... and math... you must be a RINO!

[Dr. Sivana]

going straight to the people as Pres was Reagan genius, doing it as candidate is weak IMO.

Reagan routinely "went to the people" as a candidate. Whenever in a pinch, he bought a half-hour of TV time. He also announced his 1980 candidacy with a five minute purchase, not relying on media coverage. His 1976 candidacy was on life support until he bought a half hour before the North Carolina primary.

[Big E]

Nittany: I agree 100% with you about Palin and Pennsylvania. There are just wa-a-a-y too many squishy soccer moms around here, who want the government to save everybody from themselves. With other peoples money, I might add. When I talk to people at the dinner table, or poker games, and her name comes up, the reaction is not positive. That being said, the reaction to Obama’s name is not positive either. However, I don’t Palin is well liked overall in PA. I very much doubt she would carry PA.

PS: Are you all going to whip Michigan State today, or what?

[NittanyLion]

I have the same conversations... will be doing my part to get the “W”...headed to the game in about an hour. Go State!

[Jim Noble]

Assuming we don't have a domestic terror event that ZERO uses to by Executive Order: Federalize all law enforcement, Suspend the Constitution, Disband Congress, and declare himself President for Life all in the name of National Security

Pshaw!

Glendower: "I can summon demons from the vasty deep!"

Hotspur: "Aye, so can I, and so can any man! But will they come when you do call for them?"

"Obama" would be in custody five minutes after issuing such "orders".

[CAluvdubya]

I’m more than happy to take a slightly less conservative Republican that will win

It doesn't work! We don't win under those circumstances.

For proof, look to Cali. We have tried to elelct or have elected waaay less than conservative cnadidates and look how that's worked for us. It hasn't! NutMeg Whitman was not a conservative candidate and that turned out well, eh?

And how did that work when we ran McCain? He was the compromise because we were assured that anyone more conservative couldn't win. Well, ya can't win if you don't excite the base!

Nope, we need to stick to our ideals. That's the way to win!

[CAluvdubya]

Many in the GOP are satisfied resisting Obama rather then defeating Obama. Big govt programs and earmarks that they want they can blame on Obama while whipping up support for themselves as the opposition!

I believe this to be a true statement! The fire we saw from our incumbants the night of the 2010 elections is already starting to subside. I'm hearing the word "compromise" from our side now. The Mitch McConnell's are already starting to disappoint.

[Brices Crossroads]

“No, we’re going to let you pick our nominee so we can let Obama win 40 states.”

********************************************************

Just make it 45 or 50. Since ou are making things up out of thin air, why stop?

Let me make it easy for you. Just tell us the states carried by McCain that Palin will lose in 2012 to Obama.

The answer: None.

Now, I will tell you, based on polling , the census and the results of the 2010 midterms the states carried by Obama in 2008 that will flip to Palin in 2012, which will give her more than the required 270.

Take the States McCain won and add just six more (in each of which Obama’s numbers are in the toilet) and in each of which the GOP will have sitting governors: Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Indiana, Virginia and Nevada. The GOP cleaned up, as did her endorsees, in all six states with the partial exception of Nevada where Harry Reid won narrowly but where the Dems lost the governorship badly.

That is 271 electoral votes and with them, Palin is President.

To the PDSers and the “Palin is unelectable” crowd, read ‘em and weep. At this point Palin has a clearer, less obstructed, path to the White House than Ronald Reagan had at this point in 1978.”

And the 271 (unlike your “pull it out of the air” 40 state landslide) is a very conservative estimate, based upon demographic trends and actual polling and election results.

I do not even include formerly blue states that went deep red such as Wisconsin (Tea Party Senator upends Feingold), New Mexico (Mama Grizzly/Tea Party Governor elected) and New Hampshire (Mama Grizzly Palin endorsee wins Senate 60-40 over Dem Congressman)

[grey_whiskers]

But you know, pretty much all of us do little more than derivative work building on those who write before us. We read stuff, it gets in our heads, and later we use it in our own work.

You mean like Teh One did with Karl Marx and William Ayers? /sarc>

Cheers!

[Little Pharma]

“I’m hearing the word “compromise” from our side now.”
____________-

I get the feeling that it is less admirable then compromise, rather it is conspiracy. Compromise is almost honest in that each side should get a little of what they want without completely abandoning principle.

Conspiracy takes place when the Blue Blood Repubs and the Dems get together behind closed doors and arrange subterfuge. “You pretend to be outraged but you won’t stop my airport project and I’ll pretend to be outraged but do nothing to stop your abortion funding.” Both sides present themselves to their voters as fighters without whom the other side would take over and go unchecked- And we fall for it regularly.

[se_ohio_young_conservative]

Alaska is not an Obama state.

never will be.

This is a guy with an economy that features nearly double digit unemployment figure and a debt thats almost the size of GDP. unless there is a major turnaround, he will not win. it doesn’t matter who we run at that point.

There ia no chance in hell Romney would deliver the MASS electoral votes. I don’t think we need a lot of help in Arkansas with Huckabee. Indiana is a meat and potatoes state that we should carry no matter who we run. same with Virginia.

[grey_whiskers]

Are you old enough to recall how the MSM totally destroyed Gerald Ford or Dan Quayle or how the MSM made an affirmative action loser a genius named Obama. Once these perceptions are implanted in the minds of many they become indelible.

Fine, fine. Show me Quayle's New York Slimes bestsellers, or the cable TV series Gerald Ford's Michigan.

Palin is building grass-roots support outside of the chattering classes, leading to an encore presentation of Pauline Kael's remark about Nixon, after the 2010 election.

Cheers!

[grey_whiskers]

Show me the *true* internals on the polls -- are they getting their "moderates" from the University campuses in Cambridge, MA, Ithaca, NY, and Providence, RI?

Cheers!

[grey_whiskers]

That leaves *YOU* out, Pippin.

Sarah has intelligence aplenty, but not the Ivy League pedigree.

BFD.

[grey_whiskers]

Frankly, you’re allowing your infatuation with Palin to overcome your better judgment.

You're projecting.

[se_ohio_young_conservative]

If thats the case. NO REPUBLICAN can win PA then.

none. nadda..

If Palin can’t win it, no one can. because whoever runs is simply going to be playing the part of alternative..

you make it seem like there is a Palin stigma. I look at her record and I don’t see any logical reason to why she can’t be elected President.

[grey_whiskers]

In the last election cycle, I voted for Barr because I was absolutely certain that Obama would take my state and by voting for Barr I could register my protest against McCain.

You knowingly threw away your vote on a turncoat ACLU member, and expect to be taken seriously?

LOL!

Cheers!

[E. Pluribus Unum]

[SideoutFred]

Please don’t give California as an example. I live here, too. There is nothing conservative about any Californian GOP members with the exception of McClintock.

I didn’t vote for McCain or Obama because neither was acceptable.

I most certainly would vote for a lot of GOP candidates that are conservative enough that can win vs Palin, who cannot win.

People will do exactly what they did in Nevada, hold their noses and vote for Obama.

I fail to see HOW allowing Obama to win again is good for this country, but that’s essentially what you are saying.

I can see it now, Obama will be at about 40% approval rating and the GOP will screw this up again and allow someone that is unelectable (see Nevada, Delaware, Alaska, etc) win the nomination and Obama wins. Yeah, that’s certainly a win!! Sigh

[SideoutFred]

Why can’t she win? Simple, because only 1/3 of the country is strongly conservative, that’s why.

It’s the same reason why I told you guys Miller, Angle and O’Donnell were going to lose and I was right despite being battered here constantly for saying it.

This is a conservative country, thank God. However, there is a limit to that conservatism. Independents hold the key and she barely registers with them. If you don’t have the independents, you cannot win the General Election anymore. That’s the nature of Presidential election these days.

So I ask you, what is better....putting a Conservative into the General to lose and give Obama 4 more years (just wait to see what he tries then...Reparations, etc). A person that you will disagree with 98% of the time.

Or is it better to put someone in the General that may make you squirm on 25% of the issues but gets it right 75% of the time and will actually win and knock Obama out?