Posted on 10/23/2007 5:50:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
vs.
Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios.
Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
| Game | Starters | COL | BOS | |
|
|
||||
| Game 1 | Francis vs. Beckett | 31.2% | 68.8% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 2 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 3 | Matsuzaka vs. Fogg | 52.1% | 49.2% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 4 | Lester vs. Cook | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 5 | Beckett vs. Francis | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 6 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 7 | Fogg vs. Matsuzaka | 39.0% | 61.0% |
|
| WIN SERIES | 33.2% | 66.8% |
|
PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.
CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.
CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.
INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.
OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.
Need a mercy rule tonight.
Nah, I saw Beckett enter a five star restaurant asking the matra’de for the wine list.
both are real. The Sox just have peaked,
crazy production vs Indians and here.
Maybe they can get dibs on that “jellin” ad.
The whole town,happily bouncing down the streeet,shots of BC,the Pats,the sox.
It is crazy.
Becket?
I’m not a basketball fan but rumor has it they should be easily in the playoffs too.
Anymore of this and the Rox should think about having Helton pitch.
We need his email add so we can send him to this thread. Maybe it will inspire him to not be the horrible anymore....
I think the ‘59 White Sox won game 1 of the WS 12-0 and eventually lost the series to the Dodgers in 5 or 6 games.
I do not need to know that right now...
heh
Besides, this is 13,completely different from 12.
errr,right?
yikes. You are harshing my World Series high.
Ever sense the curse of the Bambino was broken, there is no stopping the Red Sox.
Beckett at 78 pitches. That should be it so we have the option of using him in Game 4.
Hi, Boston Blackie...:)
If Gagne gets three outs tonight, Royce Clayton gets a free taco.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.