Posted on 10/23/2007 5:50:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
vs.
Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios.
Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
| Game | Starters | COL | BOS | |
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| Game 1 | Francis vs. Beckett | 31.2% | 68.8% | |
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| Game 2 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 3 | Matsuzaka vs. Fogg | 52.1% | 49.2% | |
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| Game 4 | Lester vs. Cook | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
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| Game 5 | Beckett vs. Francis | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
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| Game 6 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 7 | Fogg vs. Matsuzaka | 39.0% | 61.0% |
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| WIN SERIES | 33.2% | 66.8% |
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PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.
CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.
CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.
INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.
OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.
Well,Becket won’t be back,right?
11-1
I would put Gagne in,sure
in the corner wrapped in duct tape.
Actually,why not
saves the rest of the guys
You really think he will have grandkids?
I tell you what - I never even thought this game would be like this. Its still the 5th!
So.....is there a Republican debate tomorrow night? If not when?
12-1
scoring faster ‘n I can post
We need some guys from Massachusetts’ own MIT to determine the Gagne-proof moment of a game.
See, they saved a 6 run inning for the bottom of the 5th!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
If this game continues like this til the ninth, the score will be 20 to possibly 2
Beckett is over on Landsdowne Street nursing his second beer. He’ll be back to the park shortly to pitch the top of the 6th.
Torrealba to Spier, just throw strikes someone is bound to hit it at someone.
No this game is moving faster than I thought ...The final score will be 25 to possibly 2 for the Rox.
Trying to calculate that could fry the IBM Blue Gene/L into oblivion.
The BoSox do very well when there’s a Full Moon during the Series — remember the Red lunar eclipse in 2004...
I am not usually cocky or just arrogant wrt pats/sox,but I actually have been saying i thought this was likely.
8 days off is just crazy
It is good to see the team we all knew they could be
show up all at once here.
lol! Your right - his ERA with the ladies will possibly be worse than mine!
Screw it. Beckett just ordered a cheeseburger and his third beer.
WOOOOOO HOOOOOOOOOOO!
wicked cool
I don’t think they are done yet...
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