Posted on 09/22/2004 4:25:00 AM PDT by Chairman_December_19th_Society
We will not tire, we will not falter, and we will not fail!
Good morning!!
Do not let the victims of the attacks on New York and Washington, nor the brave members of our Nation's military who have given their lives to protect our freedom, die in vain!!
CAT I HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY #32
DISCUSSION
...JEANNE SOLUTION NOW SOLID...ACTUALLY TO THE LEFT OF NHC TRACK...JEANNE WILL WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING NORTH CAROLINA, HOWEVER...
JEANNE is exiting the anticyclonic loop it has been in for a couple of days. All major models agree on a westward motion and a curve to the north at VT forecast plus five days. NHC has to maintain continuity with previous forecasts, so they admit their track is quite probably insufficiently far enough west. JEANNE will be pulled up into a trough between a HP center to its east and west at VT forecast plus four days.
So we're back to where we were around a week ago--the primary threat appears to be to North Carolina's Crystal Coast and Outer Banks.
Intensity is another issue, however. Dry air appears to be reaching JEANNE from the south and is inhibiting development. There is also shear over the system, which appears to be subsiding. Model guidance suggests a modest increase in strength through VT forecast plus three days, and then a gradual weakening.
WATCHES/WARNINGS
[There are no watches or warnings associated with JEANNE at this time.]
STORM DATA
Fix Time: 5 AM ET (0900Z)
Location: 26.6N by 68.6W, or 525 miles E of Great Abaco Island.
Vector: S at 3 MPH. A gradual turn to the W is expected over the next 24 hours.
Winds: 90 MPH 1-minute sustained. Some strengthening is likely over the next 24 hours.
Pressure: 968 MB or 28.59"
Diameter of Hurricane Force Winds: 90 miles.
Diameter of Tropical Storm Force Winds: 250 miles.
Anticipated Landfall Time: N/A
Anticipated Landfall Location: N/A
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS
[None at this time.]
NEXRAD IMAGERY
[No part of JEANNE is within 124 nautical miles of any CONUS or Puerto Rico NEXRAD site.]
SLOSH DATA
[None at this time.]
TOD DATA
[None at this time. TOD data will be calculated if and when hurricane warnings are posted for CONUS and apply only to CONUS territories.]
STATE-ISSUED OFFICIAL EVACUATION INSTRUCTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION
[There are no such documents for this system at this time.]
INTEREST WATCH AREA
Interests along the United States Atlantic littoral from Florida to Virginia should monitor the progress of JEANNE.
In the news...
And in a bizzare new twist to Rathergate, the purveyor of the memos to CBS, Mr. Bill Burkett, plans to sue the network for defamation of character and libel.
Turns out that CBS was supposed to protect the anonymity of Mr. Burkett and "expend both time and money authenticating" the memos they were provided.
Also, Tony Coelho, the former manager of Algore's successful attempt at becoming "the former next President of the United States," stated that the Algore campaign was also verbally given this information, but felt there was "nothing there" so they didn't pursue it.
Also, Mary Mapes, a producer at CBS News, passed the name of Bill Burkett on to the Kerry Campaign, it has been learned.
For AMERICA - The Right Way, I remain yours in the Cause, the Chairman.
This is fallout from Charlie Rangel's bill that called for the reinstatement of the draft. As far as I know, only RATS, for obvious political reasons, are pushing this. Rummy, the Pentagon, and the White House won't even go there. It's a loser politcally and the all-volunteer military is working fine. In fact, it's the best trained, bad-ass fighting force in history.
IMO, the recruiter was putting a hard sell on JT. It works like this, "Join now or you'll get drafted!" Recruiters are trained to push you into signing those papers. I'm a proud vet, but I know that recruiters have a quota, and they'll say some wild things to get that signature.
Why would a 21 year old hottie need a hearing aid? ;^)
DISCUSSION
...IVAN'S BACK...
IVAN is back, just like a bad dream.
Actually, this space STRONGLY disagrees with the NHC in classifying this system as IVAN, as the remnant LP center formerly known as IVAN split into two parts near Dover, DE, at the time the HPC declared the system dead. Since it seems very unlikely that it can be conclusively argued this LP center was IVAN, or the LP center that became a very powerful NORLANT storm off of Nova Scotia was IVAN, the NHC should have made this MATTHEW. But since apparently IVAN is related to Lazereth, it's off we will go with that designation.
So, the LP center called IVAN has developed a sufficiently adequate circulation to be designated a tropical depression. Southerly shear currently working on the cyclone will relax sufficiently over the next 24 hours to allow the system to strengthen somewhat prior to landfall.
IVAN will follow the periphery of the strong HP center located over eastern CONUS, and strike the Texas coast early Friday morning.
Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches may be expected in association with IVAN which can cause life-threatening flash floods.
WATCHES/WARNINGS
AT 7 PM ET / 6 PM CT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE UNITED STATES GULF COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI TO SARGENT, TX.
STORM DATA
Fix Time: 5 PM ET (2100Z)
Location: 26.9N by 89.3W, or 155 miles S of the mouth of the Mississippi.
Vector: WNW at 14 MPH.
Winds: 35 MPH with some higher gusts mainly in the northern semicircle. Some strengthening is likley during the next 24 hours.
Pressure: 1008 MB or 29.77"
Diameter of Hurricane Force Winds: N/A.
Diameter of Tropical Storm Force Winds: N/A.
Anticipated landfall time: 3 AM, Friday, September 24, 2004.
Anticipated landfall location: High Island, TX (about 20 miles NE of Galveston)
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS
NEXRAD IMAGERY
SLOSH DATA
IVAN will generate surge heights of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels near and to the right of where the center makes landfall.
TOD DATA
[Not applicable as IVAN is not a hurricane.]
STATE-ISSUED OFFICIAL EVACUATION INSTRUCTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION
[None at this time.]
INTEREST WATCH AREA
Interests along the United States Gulf Coast in Louisiana and Texas should monitor the progress of IVAN.
5.56mm
To be frank, we could use a little rain. But the name Ivan definitely deserves to go in the record books and retired like Camille and Andrew. This thing won't die. Jeanne may be doing a hoola-hoop in the Atlantic, but she's got nothing on Ivan...
DISCUSSION
...JEANNE WILL MOVE FURTHER WEST THAN ANTICIPATED...MAY STRENGTHEN OVER GULF STREAM...
JEANNE remains is a low end category II hurricane. One issue in that regard is that outflow, while excellent, isn't defining the cyclone's environmental envelope, therefore it is subject to the environment around it. And that environment is full of dry air. This will likely tamp down strengthening.
Another issue will be when JEANNE recurves. The NHC solution is probably too aggressive on its westwardness, despite model support for a strong, digging HP center. The 11 AM package solution seems better. Even if further west, the recurve seems dramatic as proposed by NHC.
Even presuming the models are correct, the recurve is likely wrong as the models support the building of an almost east-west HP ridge from Maryland to Bermuda. JEANNE would unlikely move NNE in such a case.
For now, the forecast strike point, though in obvious disagreement with the track guidance map, will remain at Morehead City, NC.
Strength in the NHC solution is dependent upon the forecast track holding as on their plan map. This would bring the cyclone over cold shelf water prior to landfall, decreasing its strength.
WATCHES/WARNINGS
[There are no watches or warnings posted at this time.]
STORM DATA
Fix Time: 5 PM ET/AT (2100Z)
Location: 26.1N by 69.0W, 500 miles E of Great Abaco Island.
Vector: WSW at 5 MPH. A turn toward the S or SW is expected later tonight or Wednesday.
Winds: 100 MPH 1-minute sustained. Some slight strengthening is expected over the next 24 hours.
Pressure: 967 MB or 28.56"
Diameter of Hurricane Force Winds: 90 miles.
Diameter of Tropical Storm Force Winds: 280 miles.
Anticipated Landfall Time: N/A
Anticipated Landfall Location: N/A
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS
[None at this time.]
NEXRAD IMAGERY
[No part of JEANNE is within 124 nautical miles of any CONUS or Puerto Rico NEXRAD location.]
SLOSH DATA
[JEANNE is not a threat to land during the next five days.]
TOD DATA
[None at this time. TOD data will be calculated if and when hurricane warnings are posted for CONUS and apply only to CONUS territories.]
STATE-ISSUED OFFICIAL EVACUATION INSTRUCTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION
[There are no such documents for this system at this time.]
INTEREST WATCH AREA
Interests in the Bahamas, and along the United States Atlantic littoral from Maryland to Florida should monitor the progress of JEANNE.
The official ultra-super-duper-wizz-bang long-range forecast on IVAN...
1. IVAN will make landfall in Texas.
2. IVAN will move across the United States and enter the NW pacific, where it will have a sex change and be dubbed KAY.
3. KAY (IVAN) will then strike Alaska, after which it will slowly visit all of the lower 48 states before emerging over California.
4. KAY (IVAN) will then cross Mexico and enter the Caribbean, on December 29, whence it will turn to the NW.
5. At 2359 GMT on December 31, IVAN will be located in the central Gulf, heading swiftly toward Alabama, when...
POOF!
The end of the year shows up forcing it to become Arlene--killing IVAN once and for all.
DISCUSSION
...KARL MOVING AS FORECAST...
KARL continues as in the previous package. No change in thinking.
WATCHES/WARNINGS
[None at this time.]
STORM DATA
Fix Time: 5 PM ET/AT (2100Z)
Location: 28.2N by 48.3W, or 1400 miles WSW of the Azores.
Vector: NNE at 16 MPH. A increase in forward speed is likely in the next 24 hours.
Winds: 105 MPH 1-minute sustained. Little change in strength is likely over the next 24 hours.
Pressure: 970 MB or 28.64"
Diameter of Hurricane Force Winds: 170 miles.
Diameter of Tropical Storm Force Winds: 580 miles.
Anticipated Landfall Time: N/A
Anticipated Landfall Location: N/A
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS
[None at this time.]
NEXRAD IMAGERY
[No portion of KARL is within 124 nautical miles of CONUS or Puerto Rico NEXRAD stations.]
SLOSH DATA
[None at this time.]
TOD DATA
[None at this time. TOD data will be calculated if and when hurricane warnings are posted for CONUS and apply only to CONUS territories.]
STATE-ISSUED OFFICIAL EVACUATION INSTRUCTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION
[There are no such documents for this system at this time.]
INTEREST WATCH AREA
Interests in Iceland should monitor the progress of IVAN.
Please don't make me laugh so hard. I'm begging you!
You are too funny.
We ought to wash your brain off with soap for even thinking of such a scenario ... ;-)
DISCUSSION
...LISA STRUGGLING TO SURVIVE...
LISA is being ripped apart by shear and interaction with a strong disturbance to its SE. While the NHC forecast has the storm still surviving at VT forecast plus five days, the NHC discussion seems to imply a feeling among the lead forecaster that the system will be absorbed by the disturbance. Indeed, the GFS model shows a strong interaction. In point of fact, it appears as if LISA and the disturbance are indeed interacting, and revolving around a common center.
The forecast guidance, if LISA survives, is as before. Friday afternoon will see a weakening in the HP ridge to the north of the path of LISA, if it's still there, allowing for a sharp turn to the NNW, out into the open NORLANT.
WATCHES/WARNINGS
[None at this time.]
STORM DATA
Fix Time: 5 PM ET/AT (2100Z)
Location: 13.7N by 41.9W, or 1205 miles W of the Cape Verde Islands.
Vector: WSW at 6 MPH. A slow SW or WSW motion is expected for the next 24 hours.
Winds: 50 MPH 1-minute sustained. Little change in strength is likely over the next 24 hours.
Pressure: 997 MB or 29.44"
Diameter of Hurricane Force Winds: N/A.
Diameter of Tropical Storm Force Winds: 90 miles.
Anticipated Landfall Time: N/A
Anticipated Landfall Location: N/A
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS
[None at this time.]
NEXRAD IMAGERY
[No portion of LISA is within 124 nautical miles of CONUS or Puerto Rico NEXRAD stations.]
SLOSH DATA
[None at this time.]
TOD DATA
[None at this time. TOD data will be calculated if and when hurricane warnings are posted for CONUS and apply only to CONUS territories.]
STATE-ISSUED OFFICIAL EVACUATION INSTRUCTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION
[There are no such documents for this system at this time.]
INTEREST WATCH AREA
LISA is only a threat to shipping at this time.
Thanks, lysie.
After reading the post, I decided to copy it to a friend who had received a hysterical e-mail about The Draft Bill. I had sent her my thoughts and what I knew about Rangel, et al, but this should really give her good ammunition.
Actually "KAY" is the next named storm for the E. Pacific basin.
LOL!
I just don't remember a system ever leaving the mid-Atlantic states and showing up a few days later again in the Gulf. Of course, the RATS will blame it on Bush, but it's kinda weird.
I printed it out for JT and gave it to him AND I've bookmarked it so I can counter any RAT propaganda I encounter. Thanks for the straight info. I knew I could find it here.
I'm heading off to bed now. I might be ready for patrol in the AM.
I do love being flattered.
BTW, tomorrow I reserve seats for a Laura I. event in Syracuse, Oct 6. Shall I get a seat for you....up front.......real close??
Oh, I figured that ... but you did paint a frightful picture of how she might behave (though, as erratic as the storms have been this year, who knows!).
**Drooling**- I have to work tomorrow, darnit! Say hello to the future Mrs. ABG for me though. 8^)
Guennie ~~~ this is what you have to look forward to ... :-)
Iowa Granny and Utah Girl ~~~ while I'm reluctant to show pics of Boychild, I finally have one that shows his gorgeous red hair without showing his face ... and the baby's hair is definitely reddish, though in some pics it looks blonde.
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