DISCUSSION
...IVAN'S BACK...
IVAN is back, just like a bad dream.
Actually, this space STRONGLY disagrees with the NHC in classifying this system as IVAN, as the remnant LP center formerly known as IVAN split into two parts near Dover, DE, at the time the HPC declared the system dead. Since it seems very unlikely that it can be conclusively argued this LP center was IVAN, or the LP center that became a very powerful NORLANT storm off of Nova Scotia was IVAN, the NHC should have made this MATTHEW. But since apparently IVAN is related to Lazereth, it's off we will go with that designation.
So, the LP center called IVAN has developed a sufficiently adequate circulation to be designated a tropical depression. Southerly shear currently working on the cyclone will relax sufficiently over the next 24 hours to allow the system to strengthen somewhat prior to landfall.
IVAN will follow the periphery of the strong HP center located over eastern CONUS, and strike the Texas coast early Friday morning.
Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches may be expected in association with IVAN which can cause life-threatening flash floods.
WATCHES/WARNINGS
AT 7 PM ET / 6 PM CT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE UNITED STATES GULF COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI TO SARGENT, TX.
STORM DATA
Fix Time: 5 PM ET (2100Z)
Location: 26.9N by 89.3W, or 155 miles S of the mouth of the Mississippi.
Vector: WNW at 14 MPH.
Winds: 35 MPH with some higher gusts mainly in the northern semicircle. Some strengthening is likley during the next 24 hours.
Pressure: 1008 MB or 29.77"
Diameter of Hurricane Force Winds: N/A.
Diameter of Tropical Storm Force Winds: N/A.
Anticipated landfall time: 3 AM, Friday, September 24, 2004.
Anticipated landfall location: High Island, TX (about 20 miles NE of Galveston)
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS
NEXRAD IMAGERY
SLOSH DATA
IVAN will generate surge heights of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels near and to the right of where the center makes landfall.
TOD DATA
[Not applicable as IVAN is not a hurricane.]
STATE-ISSUED OFFICIAL EVACUATION INSTRUCTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION
[None at this time.]
INTEREST WATCH AREA
Interests along the United States Gulf Coast in Louisiana and Texas should monitor the progress of IVAN.