"Groundswell" Pool - Kerry Campaign Deathwatch

Vanity | 9/21/04 | LikeLight

[LikeLight]

It happens at some point to every doomed campaign. The candidate, hopelessly behind in the polls and coming down to the wire, starts talking about sensing a "groundswell" of support. The groundswell is never really there, but losing candidates are always able to see it (through the lens of vain self-deception, I suppose) . . . Anyway, the FR pool is: On which date will either Kerry or Edwards first publicly utter the "groundswell" word in this campaign?

[LikeLight]

Of course, polls can sometimes influence the event they are trying to assess. If the DNC sees us running the "groundswell" campaign deathwatch pool, maybe they'll put out talking points banning the use of the term. But what a nail in the coffin THAT internal campaign memo would be! Personally, as the creator of this pool, I get first pick, so I'm going with October 17 (as measured by Eastern time) . . .

[Poohbah]

You're optimistic, I see.

October 2nd.

[WashingtonSource]

What's the reward for getting it right. Fame and fortune?

[goldstategop]

Matthew Dowd has said the last sign of a dying campaign is when it takes up the mantra "The only poll that counts is the one held on Election Day." All of the other pieces have already fallen into place.

[e5man_r_u?]

Put me down for 10/10/04.

[Unam Sanctam]

Don't get complacent -- it's not over till the fat lady sings! With the debates and Iraq and the terrorist threat, things could change quickly.

[governsleastgovernsbest]

And let's not forget, "polls go up and down. The only poll that counts is the one on election day."

And did you ever notice that when a candidate talks about what people are saying out on the campaign trail, it inevitably coincides PRECISELY with the candidate's views?:

"Out on the trail, people aren't interested in talking about [my fraudulent medals, etc.]. They want to hear my proposals for reforming tax credits for corporations making foreign investments, and the details of my plans to revise CAFE standards in accordance with Sierra Club recommendations."

[cwiz24]

I'm not going to jinx anyone--no pool for me. I'm confident, but not 100% confident. More like 85%.

[houeto]

You're optimistic, I see. October 2nd.

That's my birthday. I'm going with Poohbah!

What a present...lol

[idkfa]

Sep 30, during the first debate.

[Poohbah]

What's the reward for getting it right. Fame and fortune?

A Free Republic No-Prize, and the MSM searching you out as they did Buckhead.

[Mamzelle]

Will it be a heavily nuanced groundswell--emanating from the penumbra?

[VisualizeSmallerGovernment]

http://www.al.com/opinion/birminghamnews/

From September 13:

The Associated Press may believe there is an inevitability about the outcome of the presidential race in Alabama, but that is not a belief or feeling I share, nor is it shared by the many, many volunteers who are working to help make John Kerry the next president of the United States. There is a groundswell of support for Kerry in Alabama. Every day, more and more people come to the headquarters and ask what they can do to help take back America.

http://tinyurl.com/3rbx3

[Liz]

Seen parked outside the DNC.

Suicide watch at DNC headquarters.
Dims downing valium at an alarming rate.

[LikeLight]

The prize is fame and fortune BEYOND your wildest dreams. Yes.

[meandog]

Put me down for October 11 (that was the day America was founded and also my oldest daughter's b-day)!

[Revelation 911]

http://www.howstuffworks.com/quicksand.htm

[snooker]

Morning after the first debate. That's when, regardless how the debate actually turns out, the MS will say Kerry has the momentum. A groundswell of support is a building for the dead one.

Kerry could fall on his face at the debate, and be sat on by a dead donkey the next day, but the MSM will say Kerry won the first round. Yeeeeaaaaarrrrrggggghhhhh

[LikeLight]

"No, no, that's not my groundswell, it belongs to the family"

[WashingtonSource]

Oh, goody! Put me down for September 29.