[LikeLight]

Of course, polls can sometimes influence the event they are trying to assess. If the DNC sees us running the "groundswell" campaign deathwatch pool, maybe they'll put out talking points banning the use of the term. But what a nail in the coffin THAT internal campaign memo would be! Personally, as the creator of this pool, I get first pick, so I'm going with October 17 (as measured by Eastern time) . . .

[Poohbah]

You're optimistic, I see.

October 2nd.

[WashingtonSource]

What's the reward for getting it right. Fame and fortune?

[goldstategop]

Matthew Dowd has said the last sign of a dying campaign is when it takes up the mantra "The only poll that counts is the one held on Election Day." All of the other pieces have already fallen into place.

[e5man_r_u?]

Put me down for 10/10/04.

[Unam Sanctam]

Don't get complacent -- it's not over till the fat lady sings! With the debates and Iraq and the terrorist threat, things could change quickly.

[governsleastgovernsbest]

And let's not forget, "polls go up and down. The only poll that counts is the one on election day."

And did you ever notice that when a candidate talks about what people are saying out on the campaign trail, it inevitably coincides PRECISELY with the candidate's views?:

"Out on the trail, people aren't interested in talking about [my fraudulent medals, etc.]. They want to hear my proposals for reforming tax credits for corporations making foreign investments, and the details of my plans to revise CAFE standards in accordance with Sierra Club recommendations."

[cwiz24]

I'm not going to jinx anyone--no pool for me. I'm confident, but not 100% confident. More like 85%.

[idkfa]

Sep 30, during the first debate.

[Mamzelle]

Will it be a heavily nuanced groundswell--emanating from the penumbra?

[VisualizeSmallerGovernment]

http://www.al.com/opinion/birminghamnews/

From September 13:

The Associated Press may believe there is an inevitability about the outcome of the presidential race in Alabama, but that is not a belief or feeling I share, nor is it shared by the many, many volunteers who are working to help make John Kerry the next president of the United States. There is a groundswell of support for Kerry in Alabama. Every day, more and more people come to the headquarters and ask what they can do to help take back America.

http://tinyurl.com/3rbx3

[Liz]

Seen parked outside the DNC.

Suicide watch at DNC headquarters.
Dims downing valium at an alarming rate.

[meandog]

Put me down for October 11 (that was the day America was founded and also my oldest daughter's b-day)!

[snooker]

Morning after the first debate. That's when, regardless how the debate actually turns out, the MS will say Kerry has the momentum. A groundswell of support is a building for the dead one.

Kerry could fall on his face at the debate, and be sat on by a dead donkey the next day, but the MSM will say Kerry won the first round. Yeeeeaaaaarrrrrggggghhhhh

[HoustonTech]

It will come in the first Presidential debate. Isn't that September 30?

[Straight Vermonter]

Yeah, groundswell.

[AmericanChef]

I submit that the "groundswell" is real - it's swelling up to swallow Cash-and-Kerry's campaign whole!

Not that I'm over-confident. If folks think he doesn't have a prayer (now there's a play on words!), they might not bother going to the polls.

[marktuoni]

October 15th.

I want new pajamas if I win!