Posted on 01/02/2020 5:19:04 PM PST by Godzilla
Iraq/Iran
BREAKING yet too be confirmed. Reports from multiple sources indicate that Shbl al-Zaidi, commander of Kataib Imam Ali militia, was targeted by a US airstrike near Taji, northern Baghdad just minutes ago. The target was a two vehicle convoy, so there may be other key personnel neutralized too.
USS Bataan (LHD-5) and embarked 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit has been redirected to the Middle East. Morocco joint exercise was scrapped according to Navy spokesman.
Airstrike confirmed
President Trump is bringing the heat.
Iran/Iraq
US and world watching to see what Iran’s next move will be. An Iranian Armed Forces Spokesman: The response to the Soleimani strike will be strong, but Iran is avoiding a hasty response. Some observers suggest that any attack will occur towards the end of the week, after official morning and giving them time to plan their operation.
RUMINT via CNN reports vehicle mounted rockets, known as Grad trucks, & other military weaponry moving closer to US interests, namely al-Asad air base in Iraq. Some are indicating that the recorded movement was prior to the US attack. I’m sure intel is watching such deployments very closely. FYI - trucks were modified by the iranian militias for the rocket attack near Kirkirk that started this chain of events, for both hidden transportation and launch. the truck was found burned up with 4 unlaunched rocket - the direct link to Iran.
I think that the attack that killed Soleimani rattled their cages as well as disrupted their command and control. RUMINT suggests that remaining senior leadership of Quds and PMU forces have scrambled to get to Iran or have bunkered down to lower profile. However, delaying a response indicates that the attack is intended to be severe and they may be trying to gauge how severe any blow back may be - to maximize damage and minimize options against them.
Of particular note red flags are being raised over shia mosques in Iran. Symbolically represents a state of religious war and remains in place until revenge is accomplished. Iran is announcing it is planning for the long term.
IRGC commander stated that there are 35 vital US positions in region and Tel Aviv in Israel are within Iran’s reach. The question becomes just what “means” they are choosing to use to strike them. Many would be reached by missiles/rockets and are located in Saudi Arabia, and other gulf states. Special attention would be their cruse missiles. Iranian naval forces could be brought to bear on ports and facilities. Others, particularly in Iraq, could be attacked via militia proxy groups. Israel is a strategic target requiring Iran’s long range rockets, but could be attacked via Hezzebollah from Lebanon or Syria. Doing so would jack the stakes up dramatically.
Some confusion arising from a second air strike against a PMU “convoy” yesterday. PMU claiming Shibl Al-Zaidi death is being denied bu official statement from PMU. They further claim it was a medical convoy. Iraq is claiming no airstrikes were conducted in that region and a spokesman for CJTFOIR stated it did NOT conduct airstrikes near Camp Taji. So just what blew those vehicles up?
Coalition and Iraqi forces have stopped any training exercises due to security concerns.
Multiple countries telling citizens to get out of Iraq.
At this stage I am inclined to believe one of the observers that nothing will happen before Tuesday (end of the three day period of mourning). I am concerned that the Iranian response will be very significant and involve all facets of its capabilities - terror attacks in the west, proxy militia attacks in Iraq, attacks against oil shipping and more strategic attacks against bases in Saudi Arabia in particular. It will be just short of throwing the kitchen sink. I don’t think they’ll engage the Israel option at this time, it would be a bridge too far and invite Tehran being targeted directly.
Iran -
within the hour - reports of an airstrike targeting Iranian-backed Popular Mobilization Forces on the Iraqi-Syrian border. Also rocket / mortar attacks on the Green Zone and at Balad Air Base (host U.S. troops). No US casualties but there are iraqi civilian casualties. These attacks are by iranian proxy militias. In response, there is reported to be a lot of US air activity (fixed and rotary) over the base and in areas north of Bagdad. More rocket/mortar attacks in Mosel and Nineveh.
Pending further verification but probable - Commander of Katai’b Hezbollah warns Iraqi security forces to stay at least 1000m away from U.S. installations in Iraq - starting Sunday evening.
RUMINT RUMINT - claims that Iran has placed short and intermediate range ballistic missiles inside Iran on alert.
Netherlands tells its civilians to leave Iraq ASAP.
Current opinion - the militias are doing hit and run attacks under the cover of darkness to harass US forces. The fact that they are not massing fires support that assumption. I expect to see this continue for the next 24 hours at least.
If Iran launches missiles from Iran proper, then the gloves come off and make the country itself a target zone.
The demand for Iraqi forces to stay 1000 meters away from US bases starting Sunday afternoon is concerning. I noted earlier I don’t expect anything big before Tuesday if not later. This indicates Iranian planning and preparations are proceeding faster than I expected.
ping above
Iran/Iraq
US troops enroute
About 4000 from the 82d ABN DRB
About 2200 from 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit (USS Batan)
Doesn’t include additional USAF, USN or Patriot or other heavy elements not mentioned.
Iran/Iraq
More info on US airstrikes Iranian positions near the eastern Syrian city of Al-Bukamal. This is reported a significant base and that there are reports of secondary explosions as apparently a munitions depot associated with it was also targeted.
Some confusion over some of the action around Mosel overnight. Some claims of no attacks, but other reporting says otherwise.
Iran/Iraq
Britain has announced it will be resuming its escort of merchant vessels through Strait of Hormuz - with increased tensions with #Iran. These escorts consist of the HMS Montrose and HMS Defender.
Iran / Iraq
It is important to know where your assets are. here is a recent update. Note USS Truman is on station in the gulf area. The USS Abe Lincoln is on maneuvers in the western pacific. The Reagan and America are at ports in Japan.
The Bataan is enroute having to pass through the Med and Suez canal to reach the region.
https://news.usni.org/2019/12/30/usni-news-fleet-and-marine-tracker-dec-30-2019
Iran isn’t the only thing in the news today
Libya -
Reports of 10+ dead after an airstrike on Mitiga airport. Reports suggest it was an LNA aircraft that carried out the bombing. Others say a ‘drone’.
In a related attack it is being reported that at least 38 GNA soldiers and several Turkish officers killed in airstrikes on the Tripoli military academy tonight.
Turkish intervention on the side of the GNA has garnered a lot of response. Various tribes supporting the LNA have warned that jihad will be declared against Turkey if they intervene the ongoing civil war.
Egyptian Defence Ministry said in the coming days the army will have naval and air exercises in the response to any possible Turkish military intervention in Libya. This places that region on course for a potential serious escalation of fighting.
Turkey is sticking its nose into the conflict to try to secure exploration and drilling claims to gas/oil sites in the eastern med. I’ve already reported on how Turkish naval forces drove an Israeli research vessel away from contested waters near Cyprus and is not going to allow a gas pipeline to be run to Greece from Israel.
Israel -
Substantial IAF activity over southern Lebanon tonight (their time ). There is rumors that it was IAF that hit targets on the Syrian/Iraq border and not US. Observers speculate that tonights activity represents mock raids/practice in the event that Hezbollah tries to attack Israel as part of Iranian response to US actions.
Iran / Iraq
In what appears to be the first detection of a cyberwarfare, the Sierra Leone Commercial Bank has been hacked by pro-Iran Qassem Soleimani supporters.
Shia legislators are working to push through a resolution demanding the removal of US forces from Iraq. How that will work our is yet to be seen.
Overnight developments. First some of the lighter load
N Korea -
Big rally was held overnight. Not much coming out in the news but believed to represent some support to the recent big confab with Kim and the nation’s leadership.
Israel -
Israel has warned Lebanon that it Hezbollah makes a “mistake” IDF will hit strategic locations in Lebanon. Meanwhile, Hezbollah has reportedly raised it’s alert status. Israel is monitoring and not surprised by it. Reports suggest that no “extra ordinary” measures were observed.
Hamas is reportedly not interested in escalation following the killing of Qassem Soleimani, Hamas also reportedly informed the other factions in Gaza that they would not allow Gaza to become an area where international clashes were held.
Kenya
“U.S. Africa Command acknowledges there was an attack at Manda Bay Airfield, Kenya and is monitoring the situation,” said U.S Army Maj. Gen. William Gayler in a statement. “. Somali terror group al-Shabab has claimed responsibility for the attack. al-shabab is an AQ affiliated terror group. The attack started about 4 AM local with may have been a car bomb attack. Reportedly 4 terrorists were killed, no reports of any Americans injured. The base houses elements of US Special Operations personnel providing anti-terror support to Somalia.
Iran/Iraq
Shia in both nations were in the streets in memory of the dead general. Anti-government Sunni protestors in Iraq were reportedly shot by Iranian militia units for refusing to join the mourning.
Iraqi parliament meeting to try to draft law lead by iraqi shia members to expel american military and deny airspace to US forces. The Iraqi PM states that US forces should leave the country. Note: The PM is a shia who is a puppet leader of Iran who has been forced to step down because of anti-Iranian / corruption protests in Iraq. His condemnation is no surprise.
It is now Sunday evening in Iraq, eyes are on what might happen in association with the warning to Iraqi police and security to be no closer than 1 KM to bases housing American forces. Iranian armed forces spokesman said America must wait for its strong response.
The war of words continued. President Trump issued his epic 52 target warning. Iranian mouth pieces say their target list went from 35 now to 52. Iran is refusing calls from other nations to mediate the situation.
Hacking attacks on numerous sites by Iranian supporting hackers continue. These have been mostly defacing the websites. No deeper attacks have yet to be reported that could result in more serious damage.
My current observations - I expect as the night there (day here) progresses there may be an increase in rocket/mortar attacks by Iranian proxy militias against US bases. These attacks would serve to harass our forces. There will be significant US air cover and that may mitigate militias from massing fire power to do significant damage - becoming targets themselves.
Strategically, the president has laid down a serious warning to Iran, particularly if they use their own strategic assets (short/medium range missiles, cruse missiles, naval forces (close gulf) etc) - especially if staged from Iran, the counter strike will be devastating. Internal economic conditions in Iran are shaky and it wouldn’t take much to inflict severe both economic and military damage. Question is timing. Soleimani had the capabilities to coordinate movements/attacks across the entire region. With the shake up of leadership, militia/terror group leadership hunkering down and the press to do something big, I suspect it will take a little time to put the pieces together. That involves risk on their part as it gives us a larger window to gain intel on what their plans are. The Soleimani response shows that we are well within their OODA loop.
One of my biggest concerns is if Iran utilizes its short/medium ballistic missile capability. The Gulf War demonstrated just how difficult it is to locate and destroy mobile TELS. Iran has also taken time to harden fixed positions for non mobile systems. It is doubtful that they would target bases in Iraq with these assets due to collateral damages. This means they would likely be used to attack US bases elsewhere in the Gulf as well as potentially Israel. That would unleash a firestorm on Iran from both the US and Israel.
Iranian nuclear capabilities are cloudy. It is known they have worked with and probably funded N. Korean testing of nuclear warheads. this give the potential for a basic nuclear device. Do they have one miniaturized enough to fit on their ballistic missiles? Uncertain. However, US and Israel have a nuclear deterrent and Iran would have only one shot and it would have to be perfect before Tehran is turned to glass. Have to watch this one closely.
One possibility you may not have considered is the North Korea may actually supply Iran with ballistic missiles with fully operational nuclear warheads. Of course China would help disguise such international shipment from North Korea to Iran, and possibly supply the shipping cover to do so.Noth Korea would have plausible deniability saying that the Iranians built their own.
Things are about to get hot in the next few months or so. Our ears have to be very attentive to the role of North Korea and China support of Iran.
p
Thanks for all the work you do...
National Terrorism Advisory System Bulletin
Date Issued: Saturday, January 4, 2020
View as PDF: National Terrorism Advisory System Bulletin - January 4, 2020 (pdf, 1 page, 641.01KB)
Summary
The United States designated Iran a “State Sponsor of Terrorism” in 1984 and since then, Iran has actively engaged in or directed an array of violent and deadly acts against the United States and its citizens globally. The United States designated Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a Foreign Terrorist Organization on April 15, 2019 for its direct involvement in terrorist plotting.
Duration
Issued: January 04, 2020 05:15 pm
Expires: January 18, 2020 01:00 pm
https://www.dhs.gov/ntas/advisory/national-terrorism-advisory-system-bulletin-january-4-2020
Iran has better missiles, so i could believe NK provided the plans or a potential actual warhead. I think Iran has plans based in large part on NK research and work (Iran paid a lot for).
So much volume of reports to sort through. 3 am Bagdad time. I may not be able to note much over the critical next few days as i’ll be on the road.
Iran/Iraq
Iranian backed militias fired about 6 rockets/mortars into the green zone - harassment fire i expected. US jets and Apaches are reported over Bagdad. No reports of a US strike on any of the militia shooters. Inaccuracy of rockets/mortars likely the reason for the 1km zone around US bases. 2 DoD civilians reported wounded outside the green zone by astray munitions.
Some ‘US Official’ has told Reuters that Iranian missile units are on high alert. Can’t verify and if true, can’t verify if the alert represents defensive or offensive posture. I urge caution on main news sources - very prone to propaganda influence, but this alert is understandable.
Iraqi parliament voted to ‘expel’ foreign forces. This is essentially just a resolution and not a law. Basically only the iranian supporting members of the showed up, sunni and kurd members refused to attend.
Iranian threats against the White House, the President, etc should be considered generally propaganda and fear mongering. threats I consider serious are against Israel, in particular Haifa and Tel Aviv. Those threats would most likely indicate a supportive attack by Hezbollah so that Iran can avoid direct Israeli retaliation, though Israel will strike southern lebanon hard as well as any elements in Syria. AFA Syria, there are reports of Syria allowing iranian backed units to prepare rocket firing positions.
So right now there is a lot of haze in all the reports and projections. With tonights (bagdad time) attacks going off as i figured, I think analysis that nothing big won’t happen until after Tuesday (funeral day). The brunt of Iranian retaliatory attacks likely will be US bases in Iraq and Syria, but such would be far lower than advertised by Iran.
Uncertain how much bigger Iran will make it. My guess is to strike US facilities in the Gulf with their missile and cruse missile assets. This assumes the Gulf States hosting US forces are impotent to respond.
If they expand to attack US Navy elements or to close the gulf the clear US response will be direct action against the Iranian navy and shore installations - that didn’t go well for them last time and they haven’t really improved on that since.
Any attack against Israel will necessitate using Hezbollah to shield Iran from reprisal. Doing so is dangerous to Iran anyway as strategic assets of Israel would still be free to strike Iran proper while its AF and Ground forces deal with Hezbollah. Hamas appears to be wanting to say out of the fight, though PIJ likely will launch independently.
Update before I hit the road
Iran/Iraq
Activities surrounding Suleiman’s funeral are ongoing. His funeral is scheduled for tomorrow (Tuesday local).
Meanwhile Iranian propaganda is ongoing all over social media, including a repeat of the Beirut barracks bombing and attacks on our naval presence in the gulf. Probably the most notable statement to be aware of is one that states the “response will not be limited to one strike, but will be multiple and more than geographically.” In a way this is stating the obvious - a single strike won’t achieve the PR and revenge promised the terrorists, thus will have to be multiple and different locations. Additionally the context suggests that a sustained campaign is being planned.
As noted yesterday, threats that Hezbollah may become involved and attack Haifa and Tel Aviv have caused Israel to ramp up its security. A Hezbollah ‘spokesman’ allegedly rockets units have been placed on standby. Rumors persist that Hezbollah has set up additional launch sites in Syria near Damascus. Israeli response appears to be 24/7 air cap over Haifa and N. Israel with 24/7 drone surveillance of Gaza.
FLASH - US Embassy in Jerusalem has issued an alert to US civilians warning of the potential for sudden rocket/missile attacks. No specific time frame, but seems there may be intel that Hezbollah may be getting into the act.
Movement of troops and material continues, though most of the 82d ABN DRB should be on the ground by now. The Bataan MEF enroute. Other assets being deployed as well to various other area.
Britain’s naval protection of shipping is about to be joined by Japan deploying naval assets to protect its ships.
Chinese diplomat met with the Iraqi PM to express support and offer military assistance. China is currently severely persecuting Uyghurs Moslems. Uyghurs are predominately Sunni Muslims so the Shia Iraqi PM could care less.
My projections - I don’t see Iran launching anything big until after the conclusion of the funeral and mourning - it would overshadow the funeral and interrupt proper “mourning”. I expect that tonight (Iraq time) more harassing rocket/mortar fire on US bases and Green Zone as previous nights.
The earliest anything big could kick off is Tuesday night (local). Night provides cover for Iran and allied militias to stage and launch attacks. When the revenge attacks do start I expect to see -
- Most of US bases in Iraq and Syria attacked in some fashion. Expect attempts by ground troops to capture facility and take prisoners.
- Attacks on US bases in the Gulf via Iranian based ballistic missiles
- Attacks on US naval assets.
Do I foresee Hezbollah attacks on Israel this round. No, as some of the rhetoric/rumint from the past couple days suggested that they would activate quickly in response to an American counter attack. An attack on Israel would let the genie out of the bottle and bar the doors. It will be a fatal miscalculation on Iran’s part.
Iran/Iraq
Much more quiet than I expected. Other than reports of helicopters over the green zone no rocket / mortar fire so far. Assorted reports of US and Iranian related units and equipment repositioning. Of note reported movement of Iranian missile units.
Aviation watchers note continuing air bridge of C17s and C5 aircraft into CENTCOM area. Six B52 bombers enroute to Diego Garcia.
Analysis. The level of rhetoric from Iranian leaders for retaliation is extremely high. Delivery of anything less would be seen as loss of face. The red flag over the Qom mosque is a definitive sign of singular religious fervor the get revenge. The lack of harassing fire suggests prep for larger operation. The next 24-48 hour window will show if Iran is willing to make good those threats.
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