So much volume of reports to sort through. 3 am Bagdad time. I may not be able to note much over the critical next few days as i’ll be on the road.
Iran/Iraq
Iranian backed militias fired about 6 rockets/mortars into the green zone - harassment fire i expected. US jets and Apaches are reported over Bagdad. No reports of a US strike on any of the militia shooters. Inaccuracy of rockets/mortars likely the reason for the 1km zone around US bases. 2 DoD civilians reported wounded outside the green zone by astray munitions.
Some ‘US Official’ has told Reuters that Iranian missile units are on high alert. Can’t verify and if true, can’t verify if the alert represents defensive or offensive posture. I urge caution on main news sources - very prone to propaganda influence, but this alert is understandable.
Iraqi parliament voted to ‘expel’ foreign forces. This is essentially just a resolution and not a law. Basically only the iranian supporting members of the showed up, sunni and kurd members refused to attend.
Iranian threats against the White House, the President, etc should be considered generally propaganda and fear mongering. threats I consider serious are against Israel, in particular Haifa and Tel Aviv. Those threats would most likely indicate a supportive attack by Hezbollah so that Iran can avoid direct Israeli retaliation, though Israel will strike southern lebanon hard as well as any elements in Syria. AFA Syria, there are reports of Syria allowing iranian backed units to prepare rocket firing positions.
So right now there is a lot of haze in all the reports and projections. With tonights (bagdad time) attacks going off as i figured, I think analysis that nothing big won’t happen until after Tuesday (funeral day). The brunt of Iranian retaliatory attacks likely will be US bases in Iraq and Syria, but such would be far lower than advertised by Iran.
Uncertain how much bigger Iran will make it. My guess is to strike US facilities in the Gulf with their missile and cruse missile assets. This assumes the Gulf States hosting US forces are impotent to respond.
If they expand to attack US Navy elements or to close the gulf the clear US response will be direct action against the Iranian navy and shore installations - that didn’t go well for them last time and they haven’t really improved on that since.
Any attack against Israel will necessitate using Hezbollah to shield Iran from reprisal. Doing so is dangerous to Iran anyway as strategic assets of Israel would still be free to strike Iran proper while its AF and Ground forces deal with Hezbollah. Hamas appears to be wanting to say out of the fight, though PIJ likely will launch independently.
Update before I hit the road
Iran/Iraq
Activities surrounding Suleiman’s funeral are ongoing. His funeral is scheduled for tomorrow (Tuesday local).
Meanwhile Iranian propaganda is ongoing all over social media, including a repeat of the Beirut barracks bombing and attacks on our naval presence in the gulf. Probably the most notable statement to be aware of is one that states the “response will not be limited to one strike, but will be multiple and more than geographically.” In a way this is stating the obvious - a single strike won’t achieve the PR and revenge promised the terrorists, thus will have to be multiple and different locations. Additionally the context suggests that a sustained campaign is being planned.
As noted yesterday, threats that Hezbollah may become involved and attack Haifa and Tel Aviv have caused Israel to ramp up its security. A Hezbollah ‘spokesman’ allegedly rockets units have been placed on standby. Rumors persist that Hezbollah has set up additional launch sites in Syria near Damascus. Israeli response appears to be 24/7 air cap over Haifa and N. Israel with 24/7 drone surveillance of Gaza.
FLASH - US Embassy in Jerusalem has issued an alert to US civilians warning of the potential for sudden rocket/missile attacks. No specific time frame, but seems there may be intel that Hezbollah may be getting into the act.
Movement of troops and material continues, though most of the 82d ABN DRB should be on the ground by now. The Bataan MEF enroute. Other assets being deployed as well to various other area.
Britain’s naval protection of shipping is about to be joined by Japan deploying naval assets to protect its ships.
Chinese diplomat met with the Iraqi PM to express support and offer military assistance. China is currently severely persecuting Uyghurs Moslems. Uyghurs are predominately Sunni Muslims so the Shia Iraqi PM could care less.
My projections - I don’t see Iran launching anything big until after the conclusion of the funeral and mourning - it would overshadow the funeral and interrupt proper “mourning”. I expect that tonight (Iraq time) more harassing rocket/mortar fire on US bases and Green Zone as previous nights.
The earliest anything big could kick off is Tuesday night (local). Night provides cover for Iran and allied militias to stage and launch attacks. When the revenge attacks do start I expect to see -
- Most of US bases in Iraq and Syria attacked in some fashion. Expect attempts by ground troops to capture facility and take prisoners.
- Attacks on US bases in the Gulf via Iranian based ballistic missiles
- Attacks on US naval assets.
Do I foresee Hezbollah attacks on Israel this round. No, as some of the rhetoric/rumint from the past couple days suggested that they would activate quickly in response to an American counter attack. An attack on Israel would let the genie out of the bottle and bar the doors. It will be a fatal miscalculation on Iran’s part.