Update before I hit the road
Iran/Iraq
Activities surrounding Suleiman’s funeral are ongoing. His funeral is scheduled for tomorrow (Tuesday local).
Meanwhile Iranian propaganda is ongoing all over social media, including a repeat of the Beirut barracks bombing and attacks on our naval presence in the gulf. Probably the most notable statement to be aware of is one that states the “response will not be limited to one strike, but will be multiple and more than geographically.” In a way this is stating the obvious - a single strike won’t achieve the PR and revenge promised the terrorists, thus will have to be multiple and different locations. Additionally the context suggests that a sustained campaign is being planned.
As noted yesterday, threats that Hezbollah may become involved and attack Haifa and Tel Aviv have caused Israel to ramp up its security. A Hezbollah ‘spokesman’ allegedly rockets units have been placed on standby. Rumors persist that Hezbollah has set up additional launch sites in Syria near Damascus. Israeli response appears to be 24/7 air cap over Haifa and N. Israel with 24/7 drone surveillance of Gaza.
FLASH - US Embassy in Jerusalem has issued an alert to US civilians warning of the potential for sudden rocket/missile attacks. No specific time frame, but seems there may be intel that Hezbollah may be getting into the act.
Movement of troops and material continues, though most of the 82d ABN DRB should be on the ground by now. The Bataan MEF enroute. Other assets being deployed as well to various other area.
Britain’s naval protection of shipping is about to be joined by Japan deploying naval assets to protect its ships.
Chinese diplomat met with the Iraqi PM to express support and offer military assistance. China is currently severely persecuting Uyghurs Moslems. Uyghurs are predominately Sunni Muslims so the Shia Iraqi PM could care less.
My projections - I don’t see Iran launching anything big until after the conclusion of the funeral and mourning - it would overshadow the funeral and interrupt proper “mourning”. I expect that tonight (Iraq time) more harassing rocket/mortar fire on US bases and Green Zone as previous nights.
The earliest anything big could kick off is Tuesday night (local). Night provides cover for Iran and allied militias to stage and launch attacks. When the revenge attacks do start I expect to see -
- Most of US bases in Iraq and Syria attacked in some fashion. Expect attempts by ground troops to capture facility and take prisoners.
- Attacks on US bases in the Gulf via Iranian based ballistic missiles
- Attacks on US naval assets.
Do I foresee Hezbollah attacks on Israel this round. No, as some of the rhetoric/rumint from the past couple days suggested that they would activate quickly in response to an American counter attack. An attack on Israel would let the genie out of the bottle and bar the doors. It will be a fatal miscalculation on Iran’s part.
Iran/Iraq
Much more quiet than I expected. Other than reports of helicopters over the green zone no rocket / mortar fire so far. Assorted reports of US and Iranian related units and equipment repositioning. Of note reported movement of Iranian missile units.
Aviation watchers note continuing air bridge of C17s and C5 aircraft into CENTCOM area. Six B52 bombers enroute to Diego Garcia.
Analysis. The level of rhetoric from Iranian leaders for retaliation is extremely high. Delivery of anything less would be seen as loss of face. The red flag over the Qom mosque is a definitive sign of singular religious fervor the get revenge. The lack of harassing fire suggests prep for larger operation. The next 24-48 hour window will show if Iran is willing to make good those threats.
p
November 5, 2019 11:30 AM
A media outlet affiliated with ISIS has been instructing the group’s radical adherents to set forest fires in the United States and Europe to cause mass ecological disasters, according to posts on an internet forum dedicated to the terror group.
At least four propaganda posters that have appeared on the pro-ISIS Quraysh media outlet have urged followers to “ignite fires” as part of an ongoing jihad against America and its allies.
https://freebeacon.com/national-security/isis-tells-followers-to-set-forest-fires-in-u-s-europe/