Iran/Iraq
Much more quiet than I expected. Other than reports of helicopters over the green zone no rocket / mortar fire so far. Assorted reports of US and Iranian related units and equipment repositioning. Of note reported movement of Iranian missile units.
Aviation watchers note continuing air bridge of C17s and C5 aircraft into CENTCOM area. Six B52 bombers enroute to Diego Garcia.
Analysis. The level of rhetoric from Iranian leaders for retaliation is extremely high. Delivery of anything less would be seen as loss of face. The red flag over the Qom mosque is a definitive sign of singular religious fervor the get revenge. The lack of harassing fire suggests prep for larger operation. The next 24-48 hour window will show if Iran is willing to make good those threats.
“The next 24-48 hour window will show if Iran is willing to make good those threats.”
The preemptive strike in the next 12-24 hours must be even bigger.
Quick observations
Iran/Iraq
Iran’s leadership is saying it wants it to be clear they are retaliating. Reportedly discussing 13 scenarios. Included in targeting are US facilities in the gulf besides Iraq.
40 “mourners” (and increasing) killed in stampede in Tehran. Of course Trump’s fault.
Iranian and US forces positioning and repositioning in anticipation of Iran’s attack. Of note is Iran’s missile and naval elements.
Keeping all potential Iranian options in mind, use of their ballistic missiles is gaining ground in my mind. Again such use legitimizes all of Iran as a target zone. Now in 36 hour window. If Iranian leadership still planning or making decisions I don’t anticipate anything sooner.
Because of their signature - launch of ballistic missiles could allow the US to near immediately counter strike via cruse missiles with usaf and naval follow on shortly there after. It could be something like we’ve never seen before.