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Iran/Iraq

US and world watching to see what Iran’s next move will be. An Iranian Armed Forces Spokesman: The response to the Soleimani strike will be strong, but Iran is avoiding a hasty response. Some observers suggest that any attack will occur towards the end of the week, after official morning and giving them time to plan their operation.

RUMINT via CNN reports vehicle mounted rockets, known as Grad trucks, & other military weaponry moving closer to US interests, namely al-Asad air base in Iraq. Some are indicating that the recorded movement was prior to the US attack. I’m sure intel is watching such deployments very closely. FYI - trucks were modified by the iranian militias for the rocket attack near Kirkirk that started this chain of events, for both hidden transportation and launch. the truck was found burned up with 4 unlaunched rocket - the direct link to Iran.

I think that the attack that killed Soleimani rattled their cages as well as disrupted their command and control. RUMINT suggests that remaining senior leadership of Quds and PMU forces have scrambled to get to Iran or have bunkered down to lower profile. However, delaying a response indicates that the attack is intended to be severe and they may be trying to gauge how severe any blow back may be - to maximize damage and minimize options against them.

Of particular note red flags are being raised over shia mosques in Iran. Symbolically represents a state of religious war and remains in place until revenge is accomplished. Iran is announcing it is planning for the long term.

IRGC commander stated that there are 35 vital US positions in region and Tel Aviv in Israel are within Iran’s reach. The question becomes just what “means” they are choosing to use to strike them. Many would be reached by missiles/rockets and are located in Saudi Arabia, and other gulf states. Special attention would be their cruse missiles. Iranian naval forces could be brought to bear on ports and facilities. Others, particularly in Iraq, could be attacked via militia proxy groups. Israel is a strategic target requiring Iran’s long range rockets, but could be attacked via Hezzebollah from Lebanon or Syria. Doing so would jack the stakes up dramatically.

Some confusion arising from a second air strike against a PMU “convoy” yesterday. PMU claiming Shibl Al-Zaidi death is being denied bu official statement from PMU. They further claim it was a medical convoy. Iraq is claiming no airstrikes were conducted in that region and a spokesman for CJTFOIR stated it did NOT conduct airstrikes near Camp Taji. So just what blew those vehicles up?

Coalition and Iraqi forces have stopped any training exercises due to security concerns.

Multiple countries telling citizens to get out of Iraq.

At this stage I am inclined to believe one of the observers that nothing will happen before Tuesday (end of the three day period of mourning). I am concerned that the Iranian response will be very significant and involve all facets of its capabilities - terror attacks in the west, proxy militia attacks in Iraq, attacks against oil shipping and more strategic attacks against bases in Saudi Arabia in particular. It will be just short of throwing the kitchen sink. I don’t think they’ll engage the Israel option at this time, it would be a bridge too far and invite Tehran being targeted directly.