Threat Matrix 2020

Year end review - here were my priorities that I was monitoring at the start of this year becoming a dumpster fire. Such was the fluidity of the year.

Priority 1.
1a - Iran. Huge potential for a regional war with US, Israel or (more likely) both.
RESULT - War didn’t happen but it was a close thing. Year started with a bang with the assassination of IGRC General Soleimani, with a lame Iranian retaliatory strike in response. Sanctions and blockades have kept the Iranian economy in shambles, greatly limiting the mischief they are able to do in the region.

1b - Election turmoil - Democrats/leftists have openly threatened violence in response to the president and other conservative/republicans. Still hanging are -
- Impeachment resolution _
RESULT - House impeached trump, Senate held its ‘trial’ and acquitted him.
- Barr/Durham investigation of the deep state -
RESULT - a big nothing burger
- Black swans / red flags - The Wuhan virus took this category. Associated economic shutdown and fiat decrees by local and state officials crashed the market and many businesses closed permanently. Democrats weaponized the disease via their shutdown orders - effectively conditioning the sheeple into compliance with ‘laws’ not issued by the respective legislative branch.

1c - Israel vs Hamas/Hezzbollah - this may take off based on Iran or separately. Hamas is currently attempting to put the lid down on some of the protests to gain some concessions from Israel. But there are enough wild cards in the mix to cause concern.
RESULT - Israel bombed at will Hezebollah / Iranian munition dumps in Syria. This resulted in increased financial strain on Iran and Hezbollah which lost men as well. Their goals were thwarted throughout the year.

Priority 2
2a - North Korea- Right now it seems Kim is resuming rhetoric and later strategic weapons testing. The high council meetings that just ended indicate there is still a window of potential negotiations available
RESULT - Apart from a surprise rocket display in a recent military parade, Kim has laid low, even disappearing for a while.

2b - Virginia Gun Grab. Any laws passed will take effect in July UNLESS the legislature passes them with 80% of vote for an urgent matter. This will simmer, but has potential for Bundy Ranch scenarios.
RESULT - overwhelmed by wuhan and election issues.

2c - Hong Kong - Protests continue, but violence level has dropped significantly since their elections. I would expect China to play long game on this
RESULT - China essentially invalidated HK freedoms assisted by lockdowns due to wuhan

2d - Mexico / illegals - The construction of the fence and enforcement of law has made an impact, how the narco-terrorists respond is to be seen
RESULTS - the construction of the fence, along with border shutdown and improved enforcement (no more catch and release) dramatically decreased illegal . However, with the prospect of a biden administration and amnesty numbers have shot up again.

2e - Blue area meltdown - partially associated with 2020 elections, homelessness, budgets in the deep red, and continued travel down the cesspool of progressivism make things unstable.
RESULTS - the Floyd riots and the uprising of BLM/Antifa have made things worse in many major cities. Though things have quieted down to a low simmer, the brown shirts of the left have been working to improve their logistical support and up-gunning elements.

Priority 3
3a - Middle east conflicts - these include Syria, Libya, Yemen, and Turkish involvement. Turkey may get a higher priority view depending upon their actions in Syria, Libya and Cyprus
RESULTS - Turkey was the biggest player in the ME and Eastern Mediterranean, pushing its involvement in Libya, Syria and the Caucuses. It is pulling away from NATO loyalty to establish itself as the power in the region. Much of its efforts in the ME are to establish control over the extraction and delivery of oil and gas.
Syria had some close runs when Turkey pushed into the northern part of the country to create a buffer zone. Turkish support also blunted Syrian efforts to recapture Idlib Provence. It was in Idlib that Turkish drone strategy was honed, to be later copied in the Armenian/Azeri conflict in support of the Azeri forces.

3b - Natural disasters - can’t predict but there are some biggies on the horizon that can hit at any moment.
RESULTS - Record year for named Tropical/Hurricanes, but those impacts were buried by riots and election issues. Globally, intense flooding in China and massive locust infestations in Africa and central Asia have damaged food supplies.

Before the end of the year, I’ll post my intelligence priorities for 2021 - and it looks pretty dark, making this year look tame.

Last report for 2020. I’ll try to post my intelligence priorities later today and start a Threat Matrix 2021 for tomorrow.

Wuhan Virus -
Kalifornia has announced it has detected the new, highly infectious strain of wuhan in the southern part of the state.

Wuhan papers please - The U.S. government may require a negative Covid test for more international travelers as early as next week, Reuters reports, citing sources.

Economy -
$600 wuhan checks have started arriving via direct deposit. Senate still in a quagmire on passing a $2000 measure that also includes two other issues.

Economists anticipate a spurt of inflation during the first part of next year. Stockmarket observers expect a pull back of stock prices as well.

2020 Election-
Key dates - House of Representatives officially counts electoral votes on Jan. 6. Inauguration is Jan 20.

Court maneuvering continues. Various states only now holding hearings. Time is running out, if something is going to happen, it needs to happen fast.

Reports of as many as 100 plus GOP lawmakers will oppose accepting the election results on the 6h.

CW2/Civil Disturbances -
We are in the calm before a potential storm.

BLM/Antifa has been successful in threatening at least one hotel not to host Pro-Trump patriots over the Jan 6th time frame. That is unlikely to stop Trump supporters from arriving in the DC area. I expect to see significant violence for this event.

Strategic Developments /Deployments-
The U.S. Navy said the guided missile destroyers USS John S. McCain and USS Curtis Wilbur had “conducted a routine Taiwan Strait transit Dec. 31 in accordance with international law”. “The ships’ transit through the Taiwan Strait demonstrates the U.S. commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific. The United States military will continue to fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows.” This is the 13th sailing through the strait by the U.S. Navy this year.
(Reuters)

China/India -
Chinese President Xi Jinping has sacked General Zhao Zongqi, the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) powerful Western Theatre Commander responsible for the ongoing military standoff with India in eastern Ladakh. General Zhang Xudong has been picked as his replacement, a commander who has never served along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
It is not certain as to why the change was made, though political aspirations of Zongqi seem to be part of the formula. Change may also signal a softening of China’s position in the standoff.

Israel -
IDF has released its yearly statistics:
- 50 targets hit in Syria
- 20 unique operations in the northern arena
- 80 out 86 rockets projected to land in urban areas intercepted- 93% success rate for Iron Dome
- 1,400 IAF fighter jet sorties, 35,000 flight hours for drones
- 300 Targets hit in Gaza
- 2 attempted IED attacks by Iranian-backed forces on the Syrian border thwarted, 2 attempted Hezbollah attacks on the Lebanese border thwarted

Iran -
Date to remember, January 3d - anniversary of the death of Soleimani.

US intelligence is monitoring Iranian sponsored/led militias in Iraq. “We’re seeing planning for, particularly in Iraq for complex attacks that require Iranian assistance in order to be pulled off,” a senior military official told Fox News. “It’s unclear to us, whether it’s contingency planning, or whether it’s a plan that is advancing because approval has been given and they’re just trying to get all the pieces in place and execute.” The official said the potential “complex attacks” could consist of short-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, “quadcopters” or other “unmanned systems.” Iran’s use of proxies in the past worked to insulate it from direct action. However, that insulation has ceased to be effective particularly that Iran has been more overt in its actions lately.
MY OBSERVATION - unless they delay until after Jan 20th (potential biden administration) any evidence that Iran supplied any of the weapons in an attack on Americans and American interests will result in a big counter strike by US, as warned by President Trump, who’s just looking for an excuse to hit Iranian nuclear production assets.

President of Iran Hassan Rouhani just threatened Trump today: “In the coming weeks, Trump, too, will be ousted not only from power, but from life.”

Iraq -
See Iran above.

Yemen -
Unknown forces attacked the Aden Airport with rockets/mortars (some claim drones) after a plane carrying Yemeni government ministers arrived at the terminal. The strike was timed to when they were beginning to exit the plane. As many as 22 reported dead, many injured. One minister was reportedly killed, however the airliner was not directly hit. Besides the airliner, the air port lounge was also reportedly targeted.
Overnight, Saudi coalition jets were heard flying over the capitol with accompanying loud explosions.
MY OBSERVATION - It was reported that the plane was carrying the newly formed Yemen government - this looks like an attempted decapitation attack. Yemen has been embroiled in a civil war since late 2014 mainly between the Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi-led Yemeni government and the Houthi armed movement, along with their supporters and allies.

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