Last report for 2020. I’ll try to post my intelligence priorities later today and start a Threat Matrix 2021 for tomorrow.
Wuhan Virus -
Kalifornia has announced it has detected the new, highly infectious strain of wuhan in the southern part of the state.
Wuhan papers please - The U.S. government may require a negative Covid test for more international travelers as early as next week, Reuters reports, citing sources.
Economy -
$600 wuhan checks have started arriving via direct deposit. Senate still in a quagmire on passing a $2000 measure that also includes two other issues.
Economists anticipate a spurt of inflation during the first part of next year. Stockmarket observers expect a pull back of stock prices as well.
2020 Election-
Key dates - House of Representatives officially counts electoral votes on Jan. 6. Inauguration is Jan 20.
Court maneuvering continues. Various states only now holding hearings. Time is running out, if something is going to happen, it needs to happen fast.
Reports of as many as 100 plus GOP lawmakers will oppose accepting the election results on the 6h.
CW2/Civil Disturbances -
We are in the calm before a potential storm.
BLM/Antifa has been successful in threatening at least one hotel not to host Pro-Trump patriots over the Jan 6th time frame. That is unlikely to stop Trump supporters from arriving in the DC area. I expect to see significant violence for this event.
Strategic Developments /Deployments-
The U.S. Navy said the guided missile destroyers USS John S. McCain and USS Curtis Wilbur had “conducted a routine Taiwan Strait transit Dec. 31 in accordance with international law”. “The ships’ transit through the Taiwan Strait demonstrates the U.S. commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific. The United States military will continue to fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows.” This is the 13th sailing through the strait by the U.S. Navy this year.
(Reuters)
China/India -
Chinese President Xi Jinping has sacked General Zhao Zongqi, the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) powerful Western Theatre Commander responsible for the ongoing military standoff with India in eastern Ladakh. General Zhang Xudong has been picked as his replacement, a commander who has never served along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
It is not certain as to why the change was made, though political aspirations of Zongqi seem to be part of the formula. Change may also signal a softening of China’s position in the standoff.
Israel -
IDF has released its yearly statistics:
- 50 targets hit in Syria
- 20 unique operations in the northern arena
- 80 out 86 rockets projected to land in urban areas intercepted- 93% success rate for Iron Dome
- 1,400 IAF fighter jet sorties, 35,000 flight hours for drones
- 300 Targets hit in Gaza
- 2 attempted IED attacks by Iranian-backed forces on the Syrian border thwarted, 2 attempted Hezbollah attacks on the Lebanese border thwarted
Iran -
Date to remember, January 3d - anniversary of the death of Soleimani.
US intelligence is monitoring Iranian sponsored/led militias in Iraq. “We’re seeing planning for, particularly in Iraq for complex attacks that require Iranian assistance in order to be pulled off,” a senior military official told Fox News. “It’s unclear to us, whether it’s contingency planning, or whether it’s a plan that is advancing because approval has been given and they’re just trying to get all the pieces in place and execute.” The official said the potential “complex attacks” could consist of short-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, “quadcopters” or other “unmanned systems.” Iran’s use of proxies in the past worked to insulate it from direct action. However, that insulation has ceased to be effective particularly that Iran has been more overt in its actions lately.
MY OBSERVATION - unless they delay until after Jan 20th (potential biden administration) any evidence that Iran supplied any of the weapons in an attack on Americans and American interests will result in a big counter strike by US, as warned by President Trump, who’s just looking for an excuse to hit Iranian nuclear production assets.
President of Iran Hassan Rouhani just threatened Trump today: “In the coming weeks, Trump, too, will be ousted not only from power, but from life.”
Iraq -
See Iran above.
Yemen -
Unknown forces attacked the Aden Airport with rockets/mortars (some claim drones) after a plane carrying Yemeni government ministers arrived at the terminal. The strike was timed to when they were beginning to exit the plane. As many as 22 reported dead, many injured. One minister was reportedly killed, however the airliner was not directly hit. Besides the airliner, the air port lounge was also reportedly targeted.
Overnight, Saudi coalition jets were heard flying over the capitol with accompanying loud explosions.
MY OBSERVATION - It was reported that the plane was carrying the newly formed Yemen government - this looks like an attempted decapitation attack. Yemen has been embroiled in a civil war since late 2014 mainly between the Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi-led Yemeni government and the Houthi armed movement, along with their supporters and allies.