Posted on 04/26/2019 1:59:15 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Wouldn’t it be horrible if the number of Americans without a job was higher today than it was during the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009? Well, that is actually true. As you will see below, nearly 102 million Americans do not have a job right now, and at no point during the last recession did that number ever surpass the 100 million mark. Of course the U.S. population has grown a bit over the last decade, but as you will see below, the percentage of the population that is engaged in the labor force is only slightly above the depressingly low levels from the last recession. Sadly, the truth is that the rosy employment statistics that you are getting from the mainstream media are manufactured using smoke and mirrors, and by the time you are done reading this article you will understand what is really going on.
Before we dig into the long-term trends, let’s talk about what we just learned.
According to CNBC, initial claims for unemployment benefits just rose by the most that we have seen in 19 months…
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits jumped 37,000 to a seasonally adjusted 230,000 for the week ended April 20, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The increase was the largest since early September 2017.
And considering all of the other troubling economic signs that we have been witnessing lately, this makes perfect sense.
In addition, we need to remember that over the last decade lawmakers across the country have made it more difficult to apply for unemployment benefits and have reduced the amount of time that unemployed workers can receive them. In reality, the unemployment situation in this nation is far worse than the mainstream media is telling us.
When a working age American does not have a job, the federal number crunchers put them into one of two different categories. Either they are categorized as “unemployed” or they are categorized as “not in the labor force”.
But you have to add both of those categories together to get the total number of Americans that are not working.
Over the last decade, the number of Americans that are in the “unemployed” category has been steadily going down, but the number of Americans “not in the labor force” has been rapidly going up.
In both cases we are talking about Americans that do not have a job. It is just a matter of how the federal government chooses to categorize those individuals.
At this moment, we are told that only 6.2 million Americans are officially “unemployed”, and that sounds really, really good.
But that is only half the story.
What the mainstream media rarely mentions is the fact that the number of Americans categorized as “not in the labor force” has absolutely exploded since the last recession. Right now, that number is sitting at 95.577 million.
When you add 6.2 million “officially unemployed” Americans to 95.577 million Americans that are categorized as “not in the labor force”, you get a grand total of almost 102 million Americans that do not have a job right now.
If that sounds terrible to you, that is because it is terrible.
Yes, the U.S. population has been growing over the last decade, and that is part of the reason why the number of Americans “not in the labor force” has been growing.
But overall, the truth is that the level of unemployment in this country is not that much different than it was during the last recession.
John Williams of shadowstats.com tracks what the real employment figure would be if honest numbers were being used, and according to him the real rate of unemployment in the United States at the moment is 21.2 percent.
That is down from where it was a few years ago, but not by that much.
Another “honest” indicator that I like to look at is the civilian labor force participation rate.
In essence, it tells us what percentage of the working age population is actually engaged in the labor force.
Just before the last recession, the civilian labor force participation rate was sitting at about 66 percent, and that was pretty good.
But then the recession hit, and the civilian labor force participation rate fell below 63 percent, and it stayed between 62 percent and 63 percent for an extended period of time.
So where are we today?
At this moment, we are sitting at just 63.0 percent.
Does that look like a recovery to you?
Of course not.
If you would like to claim that we have had a very marginal “employment recovery” since the last recession, that is a legitimate argument to make. But anything beyond that is simply not being honest.
And now the U.S. economy is rapidly slowing down again, and most Americans are completely and totally unprepared for what is ahead.
The good news is that employment levels have been fairly stable in recent years, but the bad news is that unemployment claims are starting to shoot up again.
A number of the experts that I am hearing from expect job losses to escalate in the months ahead. Many of those that are currently living on the edge financially suddenly won’t be able to pay their mortgages or their bills.
Just like the last recession, we could potentially see millions of middle class Americans quickly lose everything once economic conditions start getting really bad.
The economy is not going to get any better than it is right now. As you look forward to the second half of 2019, I would make plans for rough sailing ahead.
Well, when you’re including illegal aliens who can’t LEGALLY hold a job, what do you expect?
I hear ya.
I tried applying at a place last week. The guy wondered what a guy with my experience was doing there. If I was doing what I’m trained and experienced to do, no, I wouldn’t be there. I’ve got to get back into the game and polish up my skills. But I can’t play the waiting game any longer.
But people have to look a gift horse in the mouth.
So I’ve already started a backup to that, because my 3+ backups failed to work, as did the 3 slightly-better alternatives did as well. I finally gave up on one because after 2 months of back-and-forth I was no closer to actually working and perhaps further away. It was costing me time and doing damage to relationships to constantly play their game of constantly moving the goalposts.
Oh yeah, the place needs people. They have “job fairs” every two weeks or so rented at a hotel. They have billboards. I guarantee you I lasted far longer than most applicants before I finally gave up.
People think it could never happen to them. They’re wrong. All it takes is just a few circumstances. I’ve gotten FReepmails from a few FReepers over the years who know what I’m talking about.
I totally understand you on the cash flow thing.
In my conversation with hiring managers in the rock, mineral, asphalt and gravel industry, they are forced to slow down production and delivery due to lack of workers.
[Employers have got crazily specific in the skills and experience they want, and then when they aren’t willing to bid competitively for them they complain about the workforce.]
Ssshh. You’re supposed to pretend that’s not happening.
Since you made no comment am I to assume to buy this BS?
We are adding 3 million retirees every year to Social Security.
Utter crap
More people are working than ever before. Wages are up. Folks are coming back to the work force who had dropped out
How many of the 100 million are retired???
What planet are they from? The US economy is rapidly slowing? Really? With 3.2% economic growth in the last quarter and our best year of growth in about a decade?
My income has gone up by 1/3rd in the last year and a half. I get between 5 and 10 headhunters calling me every day. They ask if I have any friends who are in the industry and are qualified and I have to tell them no, all my friends have been snapped up already.
The difference between this economy and 2007-2015 is night and day.
But hey, good of them to notice that the government’s been lying about the real rate of unemployment....now that Obama is out of office.
During the Obama years, my 30 year old daughter with a finance degree was working cashiers at Old Navy. Since Trump took office she got a job as an auditor with a resort company and then moved on to financial analyst in the budget department at Scientific Gaming. Not bad in two years after 7 years of retail purgatory. I remind her of the difference regularly.
The demographics of the baby boom retirees is part (not all) of the reason for the rise in the “not in the labor force” figure.
Another long term trend that has been growing since before the Obama administration is the rise in the “permanently” unemployed. That is not “retirees” but working age folks not counted as either “unemployed” or some employed category.
One factor that is part of that are the rising of state mandated “minimum” wages (increases job losses or never-hires among the least educated, least experienced, least skilled), Another is automation’s purge of jobs that will never come back (but in some cases were the only job since high school that a person [somtimes age 50+] ever had - leaving some not experienced in anything but a job that no longer exists).
I am not making any excuses for anyone. I only mention some of the reasons for a declining rate (as % of population) for the actively employed - demographics, laws, & automation.
“All our local construction companies and subcontractors are booked solid months out. They can’t find qualified, non-druggie people.”
Wisconsin is in the same boat! Beau retired from The Trades two years ago, and is CONSTANTLY being called by old employers BEGGING him to work for them.
He can work 400 hours in a year and not hurt his pension; there are rumors of the Unions raising that to 600 hours due to a lack of workers!
Right now he’s working on a grocery store - that’s EXPANDING to meet consumer demand.
Life. Is. Good. MAGA! :)
United States Employed Persons
“Not in the labor force”
Suggest he recheck his numbers because I suspect that 102 million includes children in school, babies, cats and dogs.
I call BS.
LAV
I had my favorite electrician over yesterday to quote some work (Idaho Panhanfle). Earliest he can get to it is August! He can squeeze me in on weekends in mid May, but I have to pay a premium.
Americans “not in the labor force”
as in children? as in couples choosing a one income household? as in retirees or early retired?
I did not fully read the article but what i did read did not address how they decided the number of Americans “not in the labor force”
Maybe it includes south americans or north americans not USA citizens? plenty of people can be considered Ameicans “not in the labor force”.
100 million Americans without jobs?
Repeal the child labor laws!
Even if it were true subtract 40 million illegals and the number is only 60 million.
My neighbor is listed as "not having a job" by this person despite her home schooling her children and doing what is necessary to keep thing running smoothly on only her husband's salary.
“I am seeing more help wanted signs than I have ever seen before....”
We were saying that very thing today while driving in Knoxville. “Now hiring” signs were all over the place.
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