It belongs to Sarah.
And since it belongs to her, she can take her time.
Posted on 05/15/2011 10:41:34 AM PDT by techno
A huge obstacle in Sarah Palin's pathway to the GOP nomination and ultimately to the presidency was removed last night with Mike Huckabee's announcement that he was not running in 2012.
I am a number's person and with that in mind I would like to review several sets of statistics and data which indicate to me that the GOP nomination if Palin's to win or lose and that she is indeed entrenched in the catbird seat now without even firing a shot.
Here is why:
1)Palin is the darling of the TP movement. In late January Rasmussen released a poll showing that Palin had a 68% VERY FAVORABLE rating with GOP TP members, and in case you don't know many Tea Partiers also self-identify as evangelical Christians which happen according to the 2008 exit polls comprise about 40% of the GOP primary electorate then. And Palin is also very strong in that community.
2)Lack of a viable stalking-horse on the right. Whatever you think of Bachmann and Cain, they are dark horses polling at most 5% of the national vote while Palin constantly polls in the first tier. With Huckabee's departure, I expect Palin's momentum to surge and whatever increase in support they had to fall by the wayside. Why? Because the base of the GOP will come to realize neither MB or Cain can win. They will eventually go with the winner and that is Sarah Palin, if you are a conservative.
3)72% of Republicans self-identify as conservative while only 27% self-identify as liberals and moderates. Simply put Romney does not play well to the conservative movement while Palin does. And as you can see there 2 and 1/2 times more conservatives than liberal/moderates in the GOP.
4)Rasmussen recently conducted a poll in which he found 2/3 of the GOP call themselves social conservatives and around 50% of independents do. Sarah Palin is extremely popular in this group. Once she declares the bulk of these folks will be in her tent.
5)Facebook did a survey of the 2010 elections and found that 74% of candidates with the greater Facebook membership won the House race and that went up to 82% in the Senate. Palin has close to 3m members on her Facebook while Mitt is only around 900,000.
6)Rasmussen found on March 29, 2011 that 9 out of 10 conservative voters are ANGRY; Sarah Palin is well qualified to play to that anger and stoke it even further. Can we say that about Mitt or T-Paw?
7)Rasmussen has clearly shown that a clear majority of the electorate want Obamacare repealed. Who of the all the candidates has issued an undeniable, undiluted clarion call for its repeal? Sarah Palin.
8)Gallup this week found Sarah Palin has the highest favorables among the GOP contenders based on matching up recognition and favorables/unfavorables at 71%. Huck was 2nd before he decided not to run.
9)Sarah Palin consistently wins online polls. These polls measure intensity. Sarah Palin has the most intensity of all the first-tier candidates (Ron Paul is not a first-tier candidate).
10)And finally Sarah Palin is in the catbird seat because of her book sales and the SRO crowds that always attend her events. Nobody among the GOP contenders comes close to matching Palin's personal and political appeal.
I know I could cite other statistics but I think you get the idea. Sarah Palin is formidable and as Mike Huckabee said a few months ago, "She may not be able to be stopped."
Love it!
Also IBPR (In before pissants rants)
I don’t care how qualified, I could never vote for someone named “T-Paw.” Sorry, but that’ the worst political name in history. I’d rather vote for “Gutsball” or “Panoramic View.”
T-Paw. Cripes.
It has been relatively peaceful since Pissy went somewhere over the rainbow.
she will have my vote- again
It belongs to Sarah.
And since it belongs to her, she can take her time.
the pissant has been Zotted from FR for a few weeks. We need to see who takes his place.
Sarah’s biggest obstacle will be the MSM/DNC working with the RNC to lock her out. And the fact that almost all Jews, Blacks, and other minorities are terrified of her for some inexplicable reason.
I say, “Drill Baby Drill!”
I have no problem with Sarah Palin, but some of your dismissal of the other candidates is simply flawed.
“National polls” mean nothing at this point. In fact, few polls mean anything at this point but nothing at all matters today except the voters in the first couple of states: Iowa, NH and SC. And Cain for instance, who will be attractive to many folks who also like Palin, is polling very well in those polls.
I agree Huck dropping out helps Palin, since Huck voters probably like Palin too - but your analysis needs some tweaking IMHO.
Pissy (blessedly) has left the building.
Great article, but the Gelded Old Party will nominate Willard next year and basically tell conservatives to stuff it. Then we’ll be ordered to get behind Romney or else (”Whatcha gonna do, vote 3rd Party?”). A repeat of 2008.
Well, I guess everyone’s IBPR.
What happened with pissant?
11. Sadly, when she becomes the nominee, she will lose so badly that it will make Goldwater’s results look almost close.
If Palin doesn't run, however, Cain will probably get 70% of her support.
I don’t know for a fact but I think he used some very disparaging words about Sarah.
I guess I shouldn't be so hard on her. I just really think we need to examine reality if we want her to be the nominee.
She will have an extremely difficult time beating Obama - EXTREMELY difficult. It doesn't take a genius to figure that out. Independent voters seem to be inexplicably scared of her and without their vote, we cannot win.
We can argue all night as to whether or not it's Palin’s FAULT she has high negatives (it is only due to her naivete in dealing with the media), the fact still remains that SHE DOES.
Blaming your foreclosure on your job loss might be true, but it doesn't get your house back, it's the same thing here. Blaming Palin’s negatives on unfair treatment by the media might be true, but it doesn't magically give her a 60% approval rating.
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