Iran Gambles on Escalation With Surprise Attack on U.S. Forces

The Wall Street Journal ^ | Updated July 29, 2026 12:13 pm ET | Jared Malsin and Suha Ma’ayeh

[E. Pluribus Unum]

Airstrikes in Jordan show Iran’s Revolutionary Guard is willing to risk Trump’s retaliation

Iran’s surprise missile attack on U.S. forces in Jordan shows Tehran’s military leaders would rather risk ramping up the war than play defense or accept a peace deal that would expose them to greater domestic political pressures.

Iran fired ballistic missiles on U.S. troops early Wednesday local time, demonstrating a willingness by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which exerts more power than ever in Tehran, to escalate during a relative lull in the conflict and attempt to seize the initiative after weeks in which Iran has mostly reacted to U.S. and Israeli attacks.

President Trump was cited by Fox News as saying the U.S. would hit Iran hard in response to the attack. “They’re going to get a beating,” chief foreign correspondent Trey Yingst early Wednesday quoted Trump as telling him. The White House didn’t immediately respond to request for comment.

A senior Jordanian government official said five missiles were intercepted in Jordan’s eastern desert and caused no injuries or material damage. The official declined to comment on the specific targets of the missiles. U.S. troops are posted to a Jordanian base near the Syrian border and at a separate air base in the desert where an Iranian missile strike killed two American servicemembers earlier this month. The Jordanian official said the Iranian attack showed the region was undergoing dramatic change.

The attack illustrates a fundamental shift in which the IRGC has grown more assertive and more comfortable with a state of war that could continue for months, rather than enter into a peace in which it would have to face public dissatisfaction with Iran’s struggling economy and its lethal clampdown on protesters earlier this year, analysts say.

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TOPICS: Military/Veterans
KEYWORDS: albertatroll; ceasefiremisfire; groundhogday; iran; iranescalates; iraq; irgc; jaredmalsin; jordan; koranimals; leftistsource; mou2; saudiarabia; suhamaayeh; wallstreeturinal; yemen

[rlmorel]

Some people think it is absolutely just fine to allow people who have been screaming at the tops of their lungs for years that they are going to wipe us off the face of the Earth for nearly half a century (and since they only had access to knives, swords, guns, and non-nuclear bombs, have had to resort to using those to murder many of us on a smaller scale and gotten away with it) have been on a push to develop, and have admitted, with their own words, the intention to obtain nuclear weapons.

They invaded our Embassy and took Americans hostage 47 years ago, and that is ancient history, these same people say.

If we leave them to their devices and don't bother them, they won't bother us, these same people say.

We can't do anything now, it would hurt our party in the mid-term elections, these same people say.

We can't do anything now, it would hurt our party's chances in the Presidential election, these same people say.

It is not our business if these people have nuclear weapons and they have no problem with allowing them to obtain nuclear weapons, these same people say.

Why should we be allowed to have nuclear weaponry and deny that to Iran, these same people say.

We can keep them from getting what they need to build nuclear weapons, these same people say.

We can embargo them, these same people say.

We can levy sanctions against them, these same people say.

We should ignore them, these same people say.

They don't mean it, these same people say.

It is only rhetoric, these same people say.

They would never use a nuclear weapon, these same people say.

They won't kill us these same people say.

They don't actually really have any weapons grade fissile material, these same people say.

These same people won't wake up until the last thing their eyes see is the tumbling world as their heads roll away from an Islamic chopping block, or a mushroom cloud over an American port city, and these same people will be harder to find than self-admitted Nazi Party Members in Germany after May 8th, 1945.

Screw these same people.

[muir_redwoods]

Respectfully, bullshit.

Im not talking about targeting cities and civilians. Im talking about those hiding places mossad undoubtedly scoped out years ago. Maybe, no certainly they didn’t find all of them but by the time we’ve crushed the first 30%, the remaining 70% will be getting more than a bit anxious.

Yes it’s asymmetrical, BFD. I don’t think anyone was expecting another Somme

[Alberta's Child]

They invaded our Embassy and took Americans hostage 47 years ago, and that is ancient history, these same people say.

This is why Tucker Carlson was right when he suggested that the only people who support this stupid war are Boomers born between 1946 and 1964 who watch Fox News.

By my own rough estimate, I would say about 70% of Americans today either weren’t even born until after 1979, were too young to remember anything that happened in 1979, or immigrated to the U.S. after 1979.

Harkening back to 1979 to support the case for military action in 2026 is like telling Italians they should invade Tunisia to bring a final end to the Punic Wars.

[central_va]

Tunisians were not building a nuclear bomb.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

Im talking about those hiding places mossad undoubtedly scoped out years ago.

Mossad is omniscient.

Got it.

[Varsity Flight]

Actually the Stonewall “Attack” (chess) ♟️ is quite symmetrical. And the Caro-Kann. The Botvinnick Attack is an attempt to break symmetry.

The QGD is also quite symmetrical, often stretched out into long endgames.

Just a few to name

(USCF high 2033)

[Theophilus]

White moves first. That’s a significant asymmetry, is it not?

[Wallace T.]

Eighty one years have passed since the last time Americans sacrificed consumer goods like meat, rubber, gasoline, etc., for the purpose of defeating a foreign enemy. Military conscription was ended 53 years ago as the result of widespread dissatisfaction with the Vietnam War and the poor attitude of some of the draftees. Whether starting this war was a wise move is certainly questionable; however, we are in it. Trump has tried and continues to try air superiority and bombing campaigns, which have not toppled the Islamist regime despite taking out much of the senior leadership and degrading Iran's warfighting capacity despite months of trying.

If bombing and a possible uprising of the Iranians have not succeeded in toppling the Iranian government, there are two possibilities: withdrawal or full war. Withdrawal means a loss of American prestige and dominance. Iran will control the Persian Gulf and the Houthis may cut off Red Sea and thus Suez traffic. An American withdrawal may tempt China to expand its influence in East Asia, force Taiwan into China, and compel South Korea, Japan, and Southeast Asia to submit to CCP hegemony. Full war means in effect a war not just against Iran, but also against China, Russia, and various Marxist regimes worldwide. It will require an increase in military manpower, which means reinstituting the draft. Continued Iranian and Houthi blockage of international waters will force shortages and wartime rationing even before a full scope invasion is attempted.

In the case of wartime mobilization, will the American people accept a lowering of their lifestyle and the conscription of their sons and possibly their daughters into the military? The armed services must deal with the physical unfitness of many, if not most, young people, as well as high levels of drug addiction. You must also recognize that there will be antiwar agitation, from the Left of course with their vast networks in education, the legacy media, and the nonprofit world, but also from the Right, specifically from the numerous podcasters and bloggers, the most prominent of which, like Tucker Carlson and Joe Rogan, have audiences larger than those of the legacy media. You can use wartime powers to suppress dissent, as Lincoln, Wilson, and FDR did, but that would drive opposition underground. The Federal government lacks the resources to suppress dissent when the blue states and cities will not back them up. FDR had Pearl Harbor to effectively silence the antiwar Right of the Charles Lindbergh and Father Coughlin acolytes. After Hitler turned on the USSR, the Communists and fellow travelers in Hollywood, the labor unions, and the prestigious universities became anti-Nazi and after Pearl Harbor, pro-war.

President Trump has no easy or good choices at this point.

[Theophilus]

sure, but anything that is less than symmetric is asymmetric.

[Varsity Flight]

D4-D5 Two play the game. ♟️

[cgbg]

Agreed—nothing good comes from meddling in the Middle East.

Am I an isolationist?

Yup—and proud of it.

When we have an insane national deficit and debt that is an excellent time to reverse course.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

President Trump has no easy or good choices at this point.

The COVID shutdown was the big mistake of Trump's first term that destroyed his economic recovery.

Letting Netenyahu/Graham drag us into the Iran was was the big mistake of Trump's second term that destroyed his economic recovery.

[Varsity Flight]

For the experienced players.

* White plays first. (Initiative)

* Black chooses the formation.

[Varsity Flight]

... Black has options;

1. Symmetrical. Eg. CARO-KANN, Classical Ruy Lopez

2. Asymmetrical. Eg. Sicilian Defense, Center Counter

Two play the game ♟️

[rlmorel]

Are people who aren't "Stupid Boomers" (in your words) people who don't remember things like 1983 Beirut attack which killed 241 Americans, 1984 Kuwait Airways Flight 221, 1985 TWA Flight 847 in which US Navy Diver Robert Stethem was shot in the head and dumped on the tarmac, 1985 kidnapping of William Buckley in Beirut, 1988 Kidnapping and Murder of USMC Col. Higgins, 1995 Kfar Darom Attack that murdered an American, 1995 Ramat Eshkol attack that murdered three Americans, 1996 Dizengoff shopping center attack that wounded two Americans, the 1996 Khobar Towers attack killing 19 Americans...actually, I could go on and on...but the question remains-are those the people other than "Stupid Boomers" who can't remember those things and view them as ancient history?

That is, only "Stupid Boomers" remember those ancient and irrelevant things?

Granted, the Iranians killed hundreds or possibly thousands of our troops in Iraq via IEDs, and THAT might well be ancient history to the people other than the "Stupid Boomers". One might expect that the Iranians were also responsible for the butchery of thousands of Israelis on October 7th, but of course, they would likely say that Hamas or Hezbollah were involved and Iran had nothing to do with it even if it isn't ancient history to them.

Of course, if they said that, they they would indicate that not only they don't know history, they don't understand the dynamic of the Hezbollah-Hamas-Iran relationship.

I know. I know. For people of the non-Boomer generation, history is hard. Really hard. I am not saying the non-Boomers are too stupid, self-absorbed, and shallow to even retain any history, never mind crack open a history book.

And I wouldn't say that because I don't believe it. I know plenty of people born after the Boomers who know of and understand these things listed above. I sure sounds like you believe in the "Stupid Boomers" approach to understand this issue, but I won't say that because you didn't say it was YOUR opinion. I don't want to mischaracterize your reference. You were only repeating what another "star" of the leftist politics of division stated, Tucker Carlson.

I wouldn't agree with that because I am not so mentally incompetent to get all caught up in this "Boomer-Millenial-GenX-whatever" shallow characterization by people who have so little mental acuity they can't analyze a situation without resorting to that kind of asinine analysis.

And, I keep in mind that to many of those on the Left who view those things listed above as ancient history, a large number of them are "Boomers" who just not coincidentally, ARE Leftists.

So, I am most certainly NOT saying you are one of those same people, of course.

And I keep in mind, the main focus of your post that you highlighted "...They invaded our Embassy and took Americans hostage 47 years ago, and that is ancient history, these same people say..." and I remember that it isn't people born after the boomers who take that stance that it is ancient history (that was your assertion...oops, sorry, not YOUR assertion, Tucker Carlson's assertion, that "star" of the Right, who said that. I understand you only repeated it for contextextual purposes.

[Theophilus]

It's a wonderful game.

Again I saw that under the sun the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, nor bread to the wise, nor riches to the intelligent, nor favour to those with knowledge, but time and chance happen to them all

[Varsity Flight]

Now White has to be careful:

* If for example, attempting the King’s Gambit, he could leave himself wide open and extremely vulnerable, without an Iron Dome📡

* He may attempt to Gambit early in the Sicilian, at the expense of material (pawn) e4 c5 d4?!. Also risk, but has chances both ways.

* Vs. d4 he might attempt the Blackmar early. Also risky without an Iron Dome 📡

His chances increase against an inexperienced player.

The best try to impose their own style.

[Wallace T.]

Netanyahu and Graham can be blamed for convincing Trump in starting this war. However, as it was once said by Harry Truman, the buck stops here. Trump gave the go-ahead and no one else. What has been done thus far has not worked. He has two choices: withdrawal with an American defeat that will make the Afghanistan retreat look like a schoolyard fist fight compared to a heavyweight bout or engaging in full war on a World War II scale. Neither choice is good, and there is no magic trick that will work.

[Varsity Flight]

I prefer a Homeland Iron Dome 📡.

* Laid back as a nest-swarm, of ravenous venomous hornets.

“Bring it!”

[SomeCallMeTim]

Absolutely EPIC post, RL. One for the ages.

I remember the Embassy hostage taking.

I’ve watched their behavior over the past 47 years.

I also hate that this all has to come to head just before mid-term elections, and possibly into the 2028 elections.

But some things are more important than elections. I’m confident that Trump understands this. He’ll try to “split the baby”....but he will err on the side of protecting us from Islamic radicals with nukes.

Eventually, whether we like it or not, the IRGC demands a reckoning. The only question is: Who survives it?

It MUST be us!